Softbank are interested? Surely that signals the peak.
249 publicly visible posts • joined 15 Mar 2022
University education won't matter for making chips. They are being trained in our semiconductor companies from Apple to ARM to the chinese companies being supplied with arch licenses by ARM/Imgtec etc. to develop CPU/GPU. The political situation may prevent those employees from going back to China and working at gunpoint I suppose but I'm guessing there are only going to be increasingly ridiculous job offers for those folks once all the IP has been scooped up and China can decouple itself.
Historically isn't this always the best quarter for ARM given the smartphone releases? I can't read too much into that net loss for the quarter until you see the full fiscal year 6 more months from now. They've already done the cliche 20% layoff in 2022 that all companies are now following (SiFive, imgtec, qualcomm, AMD etc.). So who knows if they will have to gut more fat in 2024, there is certainly plenty of it given the amount of middle-managers they have and so few products.
The message from their founder on Linkedin debunked this article. The reason for the layoff had nothing to do with strategy. The lights need to stay on and 20% of people need to leave.
qualcomm is laying off, imgtec is laying off. Who doing RISC-V is actively hiring? Qualcomm may just be using RISC-V as political leverage and the fact of all these layoffs means sales are unlikely to come soon.
From what I gather the company was run like an old boys club at the top and an exclusive tech-bro treehouse club below. Friends of the founders getting VP of engineering roles whilst what little talent the UK has was getting turned away if they couldn't say why Graphcore was the best company to ever exist convincingly in the interviews. All that money went to their head and they missed the biggest opportunity in a lifetime. Over-engineered hardware and non-existent software strategy. It's kind of a microcosm for the entire UK tech culture right now.
This isn't the company it was 20 years ago. It's not a gang of working friends in a rented barn in Cambridge. It's been filled with useless MBAs that couldn't get into FAANG and prostituted to the PE industry many times and has no resemblence of the innovative tech company it once was. Lawsuits, like I predicted a few years ago to negative reaction on this site are one of a few pathsconsidered as a viable way forward for the company to grow, including going full architectural license too. If you think these lawyers aren't going to start going after RISC-V in the same way if they sense their cease and desists will land anywhere near the mark you are mistaken. When you have a group of hobbyists that don't know the ins and outs of trademarks you are in for trouble.
When I saw anti-trust lawyers being hired faster than architects and engineers I knew the writing was on the wall. But maybe riscv-basics did that, I can't remember.
No decisions are these days. All the management has been consolidated on the US side and live in their own San Jose bubble. VP levels and up are all sqeaky clean MBAs these days without a clue about technology but fully brimmed with buzzwords. There's a running joke/competition in the Cambridge office to make up buzzwords and terms in meetings and see how far they travel into the upper layers of management.
Sounds like a lawyer making work for themselves. I doubt the blog writer was directly in contact or had explicit permission to use the ARM name, it is plasted all over their products and building and has been forever. Sounds like a handshake agreement that was tolerated by other engineers until some suit got wind of it.
ARM is a big corporation now though, so get used to being alienated like this, it's run by a slimy US salesman and a bunch of burnouts from Accenutre and Deutsche Bank like everything Softbank touches. They've sent threatening letters to old employees too just to puff their chest for reference.
Golden parachutes for the slick salesmen at the top. Worthless paper and negative log trajectory for everyone at the bottom locked up and unable to sell for 6+ months. It is still no wonder what talent actually left in the company is still applying for jobs, in this market I think most of them have missed the boat as hiring freezes and layoffs have taken the industry by storm. I feel sorry for all those junior colleagues that joined during the pandemic boom and are now stuck in a company with little experienced folks left and fending for themselves.
Only way this is worth Masa's imaginary price tag is if the big players buy in to ensure some sort of control at a high premium. With some of those named wanting cheaper licenses or less competition you just wonder what is going to happen. The softbank era well and truly destroyed the founder culture that made it great and made it more American, much like IBM, Qualcomm or Intel and I don't mean in a good way.
Re: Wishful thinking
There's a lot of companies looking to move to RISC-V but none of them seem to want to be the ones to share their secret sauce or knowledge, And many of them are practically giving away their designs in the hope of it spreading (Sifive, whom are full of academic leaders that don't care so much for a thing called profit).
All this means is Softbank think it is worth $64 billion and the Saudis, ahem, Vision Fund investors, think it is nowhere near that. Kind of hard to drive a hard bargain anyway for Masa when he has been suggesting it is worth that anyway. Looks like the Vision Fund got a deal here and don't have to worry about IPO. The only difference here is he is now holding 100% of the stock rather than just a portion of it. So now Softbank are not holding a $40bn company, they are holding at a break-even price of somewhere in the $50+ billion range. With little value added to this stock (remember their IoT nonsense) and the market in a massive AI bubble, how do you convince anyone with money to throw at this stock that a bunch of low power edge devices are going to benefit from the monolithic LLM models that are driving valuations at the moment. I may not agree with it but that is what is driving this years tech rally. ARM was never a growth stock, it is a value stock and with a daily culture that rivalled Twitter pre-Elon Musk there needs to be serious downsizing to get rid of all the jobsworths.
I don't hear too many of Masa's evangelicals singing his praises like they were in 2021. Wonder what changed.
Re: Ha ha, no
Their workday consists of talking crap in meetings which is probably very annoying through Teams with the delays, mic mutes and connection dropouts. If they all want to go in and see each other face to face it's fine by me. Rents post-covid are astronomically higher for businesses and energy isn't any better for sure.
Downsize the offices and leave people alone.
Re: Tory Britain
Even I am skeptical on their IPO but this is ridiculous, their Revenue is ~3 billion with something like 30-40% margins.
It will fetch whatever this conglomerate of customers are willing to pay to get control. As for what it is trading at after the banks offload their shares and Softbank need to stay afloat is another story by the time the employees are able to sell their stock.
Sadly people don't understand this industry and think ARM will be a growth stock, it is a value stock trying to be turned into a growth stock and the customers are getting pissed off.
Re: Tory Britain
The difference MIGHT have been Corbyn would have invested public money in it to keep it in the UK (and even that is a slim chance), and the Murdoch empire would have every reader lapping up marxist Corbyn for doing so. You would also have all the Tory voting middle-managers in ARM Cambridge cursing Labour for not letting Softbank pay them a 50% premium on their shares.
I would love to be a fly on the wall of those board meetings. Samsung trying to push ARM for more development and higher performance mobile cores, Apple pushing for cutting costs to keep their SOC performance moat above and beyond Samsung/Qualcomm.
Sounds like the employees MAY escape in March 2024 with paper that is worth something, whether it is trading at 60billion Market Cap is another thing but it looks like ARMs woes are far from over. What a shame.
Re: About time
They have lost loads of talented people fed up with the culture and reduction in benefits. Their solution is to not become competitive again but just try and flood the graduate application pages with cheap graduates ready to do menial work. It's the same cycle and race to the bottom IBM and Intel came first place in back in the 90s and the 2010s. Arm will win the race in the 2020s for sure.