Re: Defer (or cost-cut) regular Tech Refresh at your peril!
The problem is the bean counting way does not accurately measure costs and risks. Regardless of whether the risk materialises if you are exposing the business to a risk that will cost £100m at 20% likelihood to save £10m then you are an idiot, especially if you do not recognise that the risk is not really 20% but a rising curve. Often you get lucky, but eventually in the words of Susan Ivanova: "No boom today. Boom tomorrow. There's always a boom tomorrow."
Business needs to get better at weeding managers that are gamblers out.