Re: Ask the thousands of laid off Microsoft employees
But there is some reason to think that the cause isn't AI replacement, and therefore whether AI replacement is the biggest problem in the future is independent. There are a variety of causes, but the closest that AI gets to it is that the companies think they have to spend large sums on servers to train or run LLMs on and, to make up the rest so they don't show declining profits, they are cutting costs. And even that's probably not the biggest reason.
For example, Microsoft cut many jobs this year, and one of the hardest-hit areas was gaming. That might have something to do with the fact that, a couple years previously, they bought a really big gaming company, meaning they now have tons of people working on gaming. It would be quite logical to conclude that they had overinvested in that and don't need so much of that. The same kind of thing explained previous waves, because many tech companies hired like crazy during 2020-2022 then realized that they didn't need to do that and interest rates wouldn't always be basically zero.
None of this is good, but it also means that, to prove whether AI is going to replace jobs, we can't look at much of the past. The little information we have suggests that it's not making as big a dent as promoters like to imply. Promoters like that because if the LLM can do everyone's jobs, then:
A. That means their product is great and everyone should be buying it, which would earn them money.
B. Their product is a massive societal boost, so nothing should be put in their way while they build it more quickly than someone else, for example they should be allowed to break copyright law but nobody else should.
C. Their product is really scary, meaning governments should listen to them about how to regulate it, meaning that everyone except them should be prevented from doing things.
So they'll keep saying this, but that is not enough to prove it's happening. Some companies have indeed decided to fire some people and replace them with an LLM. The future will show us how often that works, and my prediction is that it won't be pleasant.