Re: Job losses
I think the Iraq War example is a lot closer to the mark than you claim and has similar restrictions and answers as the AI example, starting with a simple problem with your statement: "Technically, it would have been possible to do it in a week with WWII technology if it was politically acceptable to have high civilian casualties."
Fine, everything's on the table. You can carpet bomb, small nukes, kill anyone you want. What can you actually do within a week? If the goal was simple, find where Saddam Hussein is and kill him, maybe you could. Even then, all sorts of things could get in the way of that quick a timeline. That's a short timeline for finding a hiding place if he was fortunate enough to go to one. That's analogous to code that you only need to work once and can go wrong in many ways, and we do have plenty like that. If I can write something quick and dirty which will get the results I want rapidly, even if I cause several errors using the run first and check whether I followed the API requirements later, I can do that too.
If your goal is a little bigger, obtaining the surrender of Iraq's armed forces, now it's trickier. Oh, it might look easier because somebody's going to surrender when you're threatening to nuke Baghdad, but you don't just need them, you need everything. That's analogous to something quick but that you're going to run multiple times. Little bugs are no longer acceptable, but at least there shouldn't be so many you need to iron out because the task itself is small.
But neither of those was the complete goal, hence why the actual war was long. Debating the goal of the attackers is not relevant here, but no matter what you think it was, whether that's making Iraq a democratic country, eliminating terrorist groups resident there, preventing more genocide, weakening other countries' diplomatic or military positions without going to war with them as well, those are not simple goals and no level of weaponry was going to make that happen because the trouble was not easily locatable and bombable. Getting that after World War II took a lot of time, money, and some threatening countries that the allies were protecting the vanquished from, and repeating that is not easy either to achieve or to convince politicians and citizens to pay for. And that's what people who write software mostly need as well. They need software which continues to work long-term, that can be fixed or improved without rewriting big chunks, reasonable confidence that those little changes won't introduce massive new bugs, testing to confirm that, and correct documentation and understanding from those maintaining it. These are not simple requirements and current LLMs do not do them at all. Nor is it likely that just throwing more money at it will make that happen any more than more bombs in 2003 would have prevented ISIS from forming. There are some problems that can be solved by throwing more money at them, but diplomacy and inventing unproven technology tend not to be among them.