* Posts by EvilDrSmith

626 publicly visible posts • joined 30 Jan 2018

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US Army should ditch tanks for AI drones, says Eric Schmidt

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

"The tank is dead" has been claimed repeated, almost since it was invented:

Post WWI, the tank was specific to the unique conditions of trench warfare, so some wanted rid of it.

ATGMs provided lightweight replacements for antitank guns, which could thus reliably kill tanks, yet the tank remained viable.

The attack helicopter made the tank obsolete, yet the tank remained viable.

Post 1990, 'we' didn't need tanks and cold war armies, until Iraq invaded Kuwait and suddenly those obsolete heavy armour units were exactly what was needed

The Canadians and Dutch scrapped all their MBTs as obsolete, only to re-acquire then when they discovered how useful they were even in counter-insurgency in Afghanistan.

Now we have a war that's been going on for 32 months, with over about the last 2 years, cheap drones proving effective against tanks, many of which (in the case of the Russian Aggressor State) are obsolescent types dragged from storage where they have lain since the 1950s and 1960 and which are operated by poorly trained crew.

Apparently, we are supposed to ignore the lessons of history, which teach us that any new technology often proves highly effective to start with, until suitable technical and operational counters can be developed for it, and instead believe that this new technology is the inevitable future, and this time, the tank really is dead. Honest.

I'm sceptical.

Skyscraper-high sewage plume erupts in Moscow

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: How could a sewer system be under that much pressure?

Would it be brick?

UK brick sewers often date back to Victorian times - the suggestion here is a system built in the '60's or '70's.

Reinforced concrete rings possibly? Which in turn raises questions as to how degraded the concrete and reinforcement has become, rotation of segments and opening of joints, etc.

Still, as you point out, very high pressures for a sewer, which typically seem to rely upon gravity drainage.

Tideway would have those pressures at the eastern end (Limmo shaft) because it's 70m below ground at that point - but to get a geyser 65m above ground you'd in fact need an excess pressure of 65m - so hydrostatic head in the sewer + 65m.

A failure of a high-pressure water main seems more credible to me - the geyser being a mix of soil and water.

Chinese engineers wire Raspberry Pi into 600-meter railway tunnel to find any holes

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: Empty void?

The article says that they embedded wires into the concrete - my reading of that is that they are running a current through those wires, not the concrete itself. If there is a void that has been successfully filed with grout, there is little current loss, because the concrete has low conductivity.

If the void is not fully grouted, I would generally expect that it would be water filled, not air filled (not always the case, but there is generally groundwater around tunnels), and that would cause current leakage where the wires pass through the void(s).

Still, it's all a variant of geophysics, which is a dark art involving clever physics, black boxes and the odd sacrificial chicken.

Putin's pro-Trump trolls accuse Harris of poaching rhinos

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: "Russia"

I suspect that LogicGate is mad at Russia because it is engaged in a war of genocide, with the intent to permanently annex the entirety of Ukraine; because the Russian Aggressor State has no regard for defending their borders but instead is intending to extend them, launching an illegal war, being one intended to provide permanent territorial acquisition; because the RAS has first promoted violence with Ukrainian oblasts where there is a Russian-speaking population to create a 'frozen conflict' situation in Ukraine just as they have done elsewhere, to justify Russian troops occupying foreign territory; because war crimes committed by the RAS are routine, and are practiced throughout the command chain from Putin himself down to the lowliest Russian serviceman, with prisoners of war tortured and murdered, civilians within areas of Russian control raped and murdered, children kidnapped, food supplies being shipped abroad deliberately targeted, power and water supplies for civilian use deliberately targeted, housing and hospitals being deliberately targeted.

NHS would be hit by 'significant' costs if UK loses EU data status, warn Lords

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: Surely this cannot be true

Intriguing.

I post a link to a site that is non party political, and which shows that the claim on the side of the bus is, fundamentally, true, and you appear to be so blinded by your own political bigotry that you simply declare in effect that reality doesn't suit you, so it doesn't count.

Which I suppose serves me right for attempting to have a rational discussion with anyone still raving inaccurately about what was written on the side of a bus 8 years ago, which, on reflection, was probably not a very sensible thing for me to attempt to do.

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: Surely this cannot be true

So?

The complaint is always about what was written on the side of a bus.

Why are you trying to divert attention from the fact that what was written was true?

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: Surely this cannot be true

Lots of places to dig out this data, and it tends to be presented in all sorts of ways with various caveats and such like; this link is just the first I found (and it doesn't appear to be overtly party political):

https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/insight-and-analysis/data-and-charts/nhs-budget-nutshell

Total Department of Health and Social Care spending, Real-terms (2022/2023 prices).

2015/16: 142.1 Billion = £2733mil/wk

2022/23 (with figures not influenced by COVID spending): 185.4 Billion = £3565 mil / week

Thus increase in budget = +£832 million /week.

It really perplexes me why people opposed to Brexit keep reminding everyone that the promise of extra money for the NHS that the leave campaign made has been easily met.

US Army orders next-gen robot mule to haul a literal ton of gear

EvilDrSmith Silver badge
Happy

Re: Seems unnecessarily complex and expensive

I've learnt something!

Thank you.

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: Seems unnecessarily complex and expensive

The myth, but a good myth. The truth is actually even better.

The case of James Somerset. Ruling handed down by Mr Justice Mansfield on 22nd June 1772. You probably saw the huge celebrations of the 250th anniversary of this, one of the most important legal judgements in history...though, actually, no, because for some reason they didn't happen.

Somerset was a slave of many years (20-ish? can't remember), who when his American (pre-revolution, so technically British) master came to England, promptly did a bunk.

Captured by men who hunted down escaped slaves, his fate was spotted and reported to the authorities as kidnap. The slave hunters retorted that as a slave, he was property, and so the crime was in fact of theft (effectively that Somerset had stolen himself), while they actually just intended to get Somerset onto a ship out of England, after which any legal rights would be irrelevant, since his name would be changed and there would be nothing that the law could do even if it wanted to.

At which point English Law showed how it should work - Habeas Corpus was invoked - the man must be brought to trial.

So he was.

And it didn't seem to be going well for Somerset...not well at all.

The trial appears to have been a panel of judges led by Mansfield, not by jury.

And (or so what I have read goes: I may be old, but I'm not that old to have first hand experience), when it came to the summing up, everyone that came to the court 'knew' that Somerset's fate was sealed, so wasn't paying much attention as Mansfield ran through the salient details of the case, all of which seemed to confirm that he would be returned to his owner.

Until.

Until Mansfield made a statement along the lines of that to cast a man into slavery is of such great impact, it would be impossible for any English court to do so without the express authorisation of an Act of Parliament stating that slavery and enslavement was legal in England and thus giving the Court that power. Since Parliament had not passed such a law, there was no basis for the Court to identify any man as a slave, and thus no legal power by which Somerset could be deemed a slave and 'returned' to his 'owner' by the Court, and thus accordingly he must be set free.

So he was.

So it's not so much that setting foot on British soil / breathing free air made a slave free, but rather if they did a runner, attempting to recapture them would be the crime of kidnapping - not something you want to be caught doing in the 18thC.

Cards Against Humanity deals SpaceX a $15M lawsuit over Texas turf tangle

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: I wonder

Obviously, US law applies in this case, so the following may be irrelevant, but in the UK, you can cut back a neighbour's tree if it overhangs your property, but you are suppose to return the cutting, since it remains the property of your neighbour. A plant growing on your property is your property, so removing it ('clearing brush and small trees') would be theft (criminal offense).

Putin really wants Trump back in the White House

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Australia, Canada, New Zealand and South Africa were all Dominions, so linked closely to the UK ('the mother country'), there was no such constitutional link between the US and the UK.

Hence the UK declaration of war on 3rd September was followed by Australia, Canada and New Zealand on the same day, and South Africa the day after, each of the Dominions making the choice (or not, if they had chosen so) to support the UK, but starting from the default position that they would be supportive.

The US viewed the UK as a (potentially) rival country, and had no reason to be supportive of the UK.

Acting in one own's country's (perceived) self interest is not implicitly 'yellow'.

It should perhaps also be noted that the US didn't actually declare war on Germany; rather, Germany declared war on the US. However, this occurred after the US had, in taking actions supportive of the UK/Allies, stretched the definition of neutrality to beyond what it could reasonably be.

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

To be fair to Nick, firstly, he makes the case but says that he does not agree with it, and second, he refers to Japan attacking the US, which is clearly a reference to Pearl Harbor and the Philippines et al.

His facts seem adequate to me.

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: Good!

Both Britain and France were democracies.

To go to war, their respective leaders had to carry with them the countries' Parliaments, news media and general population.

In the case of both countries, all three of those groups were markedly against war at the time of Munich.

Chamberlain's 'bit of paper' was important because it was the signed promise from Herr Hitler that he had no more territorial demands beyond the Sudetenland. When the Germans then annexed all of Czechoslovakia, it convinced enough of those three groups that Hitler could not be trusted, and would need to be opposed by force. That then empowered the British and French Government to make the promise of protection to Poland/make the promise of war against Germany.

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: Good!

Actually, the UK was working on Brimstone prior to the ban - it was realised that making a single low level pass over a Soviet armoured column to deploy BL755, even at the silly-low altitudes the RAF planned to fly the missions, was near suicidal, and that a weapon system that could do the same job from some kilometers distant was much better.

I have seen the suggestion that the reason why the UK was happy to sign up to the cluster munition ban was because the RAF's attitude (as opposed to altitude) was that they already intended to phase out cluster munitions, so the ban was (for the RAF) of no actual consequence.

China claims Starlink signals can reveal stealth aircraft – and what that really means

EvilDrSmith Silver badge
IT Angle

Exploder Lemmings....

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: old news...

upvoted but a minor correction - it was actually an (obsolescent*) surface to air missile system that was used for the shoot down.

[*or perhaps not, given it shot down a F117)

Transport for London confirms 5,000 users' bank data exposed, pulls large chunks of IT infra offline

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: Motorists will pay

Make them do all their travelling around London by Bus?

The Great Pacific Garbage Patch could be gone in ten years – for chump change

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: "Unless we deal with it at the source"

Umm, the thing about depleted uranium is that it's depleted...

Its use in weapons is because it's hard and dense, and as a waste product of uranium enrichment, it is relatively cheap, compared to, say, Tungsten, which is the other preferred material for making armour piercing projectiles (and which has lots of other uses, placing it in demand and thus making it expensive).

DU, being depleted, is of no use whatsoever for making nuclear weapons (and has a level of radioactivity that I think is about on par with a lump of Cornish Granite).

If DU is sitting under armed guard, it is only because most military organisations put armed guards on their armouries and ammunition storage areas.

Telegram CEO was 'too free' on content moderation, says Russian minister

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: And in a Major Boon to Tech, Old School Methods Will Prevail

A bit early for lunch, isn't it?

https://blackadder.fandom.com/wiki/Speckled_Jim

Russia tells citizens to switch off home surveillance because the Ukrainians are coming

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: Ukraine is spying on your ring

The claim is 14 trucks, from the images (multiple sources), many burnt, all badly holed by GMLRS fragmentation. Claims I've seen are 200-400 casualties. 30 people per truck is easily possible, and could be more, so the claims I've seen are credible.

The original point: The claim I saw was that the Ukrainians could track the convoy on traffic cameras, so knew where and when to look for it.

If Russian TV was so stupid as to broadcast real time reports of where and when the convoy was, that just makes the Russians look more incompetent.

I haven't seen the video of Ukrainians looting a store, but I don't doubt it, I believe Kursk Oblast is quite warm in summer, so the squaddies likely wanted something to eat and drink.

I have seen the Ukrainian videos of their soldiers doing supply runs to Russian civilians abandoned by the Russian authorities. Also, Russian social media posts by those that found themselves under Ukrainian occupation, who appear to be finding the situation bemusing but not particularly scary.

The contract between being occupied by the Ukrainian army and by the Russians is stark.

And you are almost certainty right (yes, I realise that you were actually being sarcastic), the Ukrainians are absolutely not making a beeline for the Kursk nuclear plant. If they were, the drive would be much more focused on that one direction. Plus there is no real reason to do so - unlike the Russians, the Ukrainians appear to follow, as best they can, the rules of war.

I don't recall seeing any Russian claim that their objective is 'attrition' - mostly, their stated objective is to destroy Ukraine.

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: This attack was brilliant strategy

A nice thought, but very unlikely.

It's a fairly long way from where the Ukrainians have advanced into Kursk Oblast even to the limited Russian penetration near Kharkiv. The main area of occupied eastern Ukraine is a lot further still.

While the Russians demonstrate daily their general lack of competence, even they could probably upset a Ukrainian drive that was supposed to go all the way around the Donbass front.

What the Ukrainians might achieve is:

At least for a while, mobile warfare, of a nature that the Ukrainians have been quite well equipped to do, and apparently quite well trained to do, but which the Russians have so far shown little skill at: this means the Russians can't hide behind minefields and defensive positions, nor can they use their artillery and air power as effectively as they are on the more static eastern front. This hopefully pushes up Russian casualties and pushes down the Ukrainians'.

A whole load more Russian prisoners

Casualties amongst the yearly conscripts, who include sons of people living in Moscow and St Petersburg, not just from the eastern ethnically non-Russians; i.e. casualties that are less expendable from the Russian establishment point of view.

Disruption to the rail network and other infrastructure, by cutting routes.

Disruption to Russia's general transport network, as they try to redeploy troops to the new front, including then establishing new supply routes to these troops.

Also, of course, the huge political win that Putin has been seen to fail to defend Russia, with the Ukrainians (and more importantly, Russian civilians) posting social media of Ukrainian troops being polite and well behaved, and helping the Russian civilians that the Russian authorities left behind,

Ultimately, when the Ukrainians withdraw, they will return to a border line or something akin to it, which they previously had to guard adequately, in case of a Russian attack, but the Russians will have to find troops to adequately guard the entire northern Ukraine border, which apparently they previously left barely defended, on the grounds that it was them that was going to do all attacking, not the Ukrainians.

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Finally a good use for traffic cameras

I have seen a claim (so no idea if it were true) that the the convoy of trucks carrying Russian infantry that got pretty much totally destroyed a few days into the offensive was located by the Ukrainians after they hacked the Russian traffic camera system.

Developer tried to dress for success, but ended up attired for an expensive outage

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: Hard Hats and Hi-Viz...

Agreeing with what GlenP said. From the few interactions I have had with HSE staff, they seem very pragmatic and sensible.

The same cannot always be said for company 'H&S managers' with their shiny new IOSH certificates, who, for example, demanded a lifting plan for taking a portaloo off the back of a truck using the truck's own HIAB.

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

This is why you issue people with different coloured hard hats.

It means that the people who arrive after the incident can work out who was who...

(Yes, I am aware that hard hat colour can actually and quite sensibly mean specific things)

Keir Starmer says facial recognition tech is the answer to far-right riots

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: Selective memory

Er, no, it was Italian.

Mussolini being a noted Italian socialist before founding the Fascist party, and using the Etruscan/Roman Fasces (Bundle of wood with an axe) as its symbol, etc.

Japan stops measuring train crowding by ease of newspaper readership

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: Lets improve the other metrics first

or even

"It's almost as if politicians had no concept of public transport"

Curiosity rover is crushing it: Ran over a rock and found pure sulfur

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: So, all it needs to find now

Only in The Original Series.

Given what NASA are finding, this seems to be more of a Strange New World.

Dangerous sandwiches delayed hardware installation

EvilDrSmith Silver badge
Pint

The bomb scare was in a pub, so (presumably) not the building our hero was locked in.

Government buildings tend to have some security measures against external blast, so it was presumably viewed as safer to keep everyone in the building than let them out on the street, where they would be more vulnerable to the (suspected) bomb that was found - or the possible second bomb that hadn't yet been found.

Bomb alert evacuations seem nowadays to be 'evacuate the building and disperse', rather than 'evacuate and assemble at the fire assembly point' specifically to avoid the risk of creating a target (the assembled evacuees) for a second, better hidden, bomb.

Still, I'm pretty sure I've met some jobsworth types that would lock you in a small room if that's what the rules said, regardless of logic, and since it's Friday, have a >>

South Korea orders 'Star Wars' lasers to blast Northern drones out of the sky

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Rapier's already gone.

The British Army have Sky Sabre, as of about 3 years ago.

It was almost immediately deployed to Poland, following The Russian Aggressor State's invasion of Ukraine:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-deploy-sky-sabre-missile-defence-system-poland-says-minister-2022-03-17/

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Vey successfully, it seems.

Completed testing in Scotland in January this year:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/advanced-future-military-laser-achieves-uk-first

And planned to be deployed by 2027:

https://www.naval-technology.com/news/dragonfire-uk-royal-navy-to-get-ships-with-laser-beams-by-2027/#:~:text=The%20UK%20Government%20has%20confirmed%20the%20Royal%20Navy,what%20was%20understood%20during%20briefings%20earlier%20this%20year.

America's new Sentinel nukes mushroom 81% in cost. Pentagon says it's all good

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: Cheap commercial off the shelf alternative

The recent UK test that 'failed' actually didn't.

The test was of the launch system of the submarine (following overhaul / refurbishment), which operated successfully, and thus the test was passed.

The missile failed to then ignite its main engine.

Since, as has already been noted, the same missile is used by the US and the UK, if this was a fundamental problem with the missile, one would expect a lot of vexed faces in the MoD and the US DoD.

Instead, the response appears to have been 'Meh! Not a problem...'

The informed(?) public discussion seems to be that the missile used was an old missile and had been fitted with additional instrumentation to support the test, and one or other of these factors led to the missile malfunctioning.

Not being privy to the secrets of the MoD/DoD, I've no idea if that's true, but when you want to test whether your submarine can eject a missile shaped object with a missile's weight, out of a launch tube and into the air, using a time-expired missile (that has the desired shape and weight) to do so seems an efficient way of doing it.

UN telecom watchdog wags finger at Russia for satellite interference

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: "it wouldn't grant requests ... to pursue the matter with a formal investigation just yet"

From the article, it appears that the RRB were discussing interference with TV broadcasts.

We can look at this and link it to GPS interference, electoral interference, murder of civilians, invasion of neighbouring counties, and expect action that reflects the overall evil of Putin and the Russian Aggressor State (RAS).

The RRB presumably has to act more like a court, and only consider the specific allegations mentioned, and then go through an escalatory process. I don't read the article as saying that the RRB has accepted the Russian version, just that they have not yet started a formal investigation. The allegations of interference in radio signals only extend back a few months. If the Russians play nicely and stop (Ha!), then this particular issue is resolved. If the RAS continues to interfere with signals, the plaintiffs return to the RRB in 3 months time, submit new evidence, and then the RRB will hopefully move onto the next step of the process - a formal investigation.

Given the war crimes / crimes against humanity Putin and the RAS are currently engaged in, it does feel rather like issuing Hitler a parking ticket, but any organisation like the RRB can only do what it is legally permitted to do.

Engineers risk blasting US missile defense to smithereens, say auditors

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: Not feeling very confident

I'll add that when you absolutely positively want to guarantee 1 vessel on station at all times (i.e. Nuclear missile boats), it rises to 4 (allowing for an accident or other unexpected event), and I think the US navy worked / works on the basis of 5 (i,e, 14 submarines to guarantee 3 on patrol at all times)

Britain's Ministry of Defence accused of wasting £174M on 'external advice'

EvilDrSmith Silver badge
Happy

Re: Only on comms?

In which case, I humbly apologise (and it wasn't my downvote).

And for your kind, if not entirely accurate, use of the word 'young', have an upvote to make you feel better.

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: Only on comms?

The AFV with the noise issue - Yup, the Ajax programme.

The MoD / General Dynamics took a vehicle design already successfully in service, and modified it to make it unfit for service.

Though supposedly the issues have now been fixed. (Supposedly).

However, I shall take issue with your snark at the Boiling Vessel (BV) (Kettle) on Chally 2. Most AFVs in British Army have a BV, as I understand it, and (not served, so this is book knowledge) they really are the envy of just about everyone else's army.

The ability to have hot food and drink while sitting for a prolonged (many hours) period inside a large metal box does, as I understand it, make the experience less unpleasant, and helps maintain alertness.

Micron mega-fab mildly endangered by definitely endangered American bats

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: 'The Word for World is Forest'*

"At some time we will have to protect all green space, so why not start now"

I agree.

However, your assumption about brown field sites is not necessarily correct. It might be, but it's not a given.

A lot of heavy industry relied on rail for transport of materials inwards and finished product outwards, rail links which may well have since been torn up, and the site possibly had very poor road access.

Power supply might have been on-site coal fired power plants, or via power lines that have since been disconnected.

Alternatively, power supply / water supply may be inadequate for the needs of the proposed development.

Urban spawl might have engulfed the brownfield site, meaning there are no major roads to and from the site, meaning truck access to the site is through residential areas (though you do at least have a local work force).

Conversely, the closure of 'the plant' may have devastating the local community, causing the whole surrounding area to be a semi-derelict ghost town

(Note - I'm in the UK, so am viewing this from a European perspective, US industrial changes will of course followed their own distinct path)

So yes - absolutely, clean up the brown field sites and re-use (I would say this... it's part of my day job).

Be aware though, that there will likely be problems a plenty. It seems to work best when the authorities (whoever they happen to be) identify a brownfield area to be redeveloped, and provide the necessary regime (planning, tax breaks, etc) coupled with revitalizing utilities and transport links, to draw in private developers to tackle individual plots. I've seen this done at various scales on several sites in the UK plus a couple in Europe, so far (seemingly) successfully.

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: 'The Word for World is Forest'*

Eclectic Man (and PRR),

I tend to agree in principle with you, but 500 acres is a pretty large site.

Finding a single brownfield site big enough might be tricky, and even if you find a couple of adjacent plots that together provide the necessary area, if they have different owners, then land acquisition can be tricky and potentially expensive (if one of the potential vendors realises that you need all the sites for your project to work, they could potentially push up the sale price).

Also, brownfield site remediation is typically not cheap, depending on what's in the soil and groundwater and what level of remediation you need to reach: in this case, logically it would be to 'industry use' standard, not 'residential with garden' standard, but that doesn't mean that you can (necessarily) leave contaminants in the ground.

Then you have to consider the operational requirements of the site - where do supplies come from, where does finished product go to? Closeness to both is good. And hence connectivity into the major road network.

Then chuck in issues like power supply, labour supply / where your workers live/want to live, taxes and other regulations, etc.

Also, there is at least the possibility that if the proposal was not here but somewhere else, then the complaints would be about sand lizards, or destroying "vital and irreplaceable heritage" (i.e. derelict industrial buildings), or whatever.

So not taking a greenfield site - yup, agree, that would definitely be preferable.

But if they are going to build this plant, they have to do so somewhere where it can actually operate without making a loss.

Though given that they have received a wadge of federal funding (i.e. US tax-payers' money), one might have hoped that the US authorities would have taken a more upfront interest, and stepped in to make the brownfield redevelopment option more appealing.

Since joining NATO, Sweden claims Russia has been borking Nordic satellites

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

The Russian Aggressor State* / Putin are frequently described as playing a zero sum game, where for Russia/Putin to win**, someone else has to lose.

That seems now to have morphed into 'If someone else loses, Putin wins'.

It's the toddler that looks you in the eye then breaks something, because it wants attention.

(*US government term, I believe, and since El Reg now roosts in the US)

(**I suspect that Putin considers that the only wins for Russia are those that are actually wins for Putin)

Chinese electric car brands zapped by price surge as EU cranks tariffs

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: Unfair subsidization?

"Those are artificially high due to the West's proxy war against Russia"

Nope.

Obviously, the war hasn't particularly helped the situation, but from here:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/articles/energypricesandtheireffectonhouseholds/2022-02-01

"The wholesale price of gas (system average price) in January 2022 was almost four times higher than in early 2021, with large rises since summer 2021."

Or this (published mid-February 2022), showing the effect that that had on the UK's energy suppliers:

https://www.forbes.com/uk/advisor/energy/failed-uk-energy-suppliers-update/#:~:text=Since%20the%20beginning%20of%202021%2C%2031%20energy%20companies,while%20it%20moves%20them%20to%20a%20new%20supplier.

"Since the beginning of 2021, 31 energy companies have ceased trading due to soaring wholesale gas prices, leaving over two million customers dependent on the safety net provided by the market regulator, Ofgem, to maintain their supplies and protect their credit balances while it moves them to a new supplier."

Putin's 3-day Special Genocide Operation started 30 months ago on 24 February 2022.

UK Labour Party promises end to datacenter planning 'barriers'

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Will it be "Pa$$w0rd"?

Norway's sovereign wealth fund aims to zap Musk's monster Tesla pay deal

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: Norway better prepare itself.....

Oddlegs,

You've forgotten, it's mandatory to always criticise the UK/the UK government on these pages...

My understanding of SWF's is that they are as much about controlling the expenditure of wealth in the home country (and thus preventing extreme inflationary pressures) as 'saving for the future'. So SWF's tend to invest anywhere and everywhere but their home country (Norway's SWF investing in the US company Tesla, for example).

As you note, Norway had/has a much smaller population that the UK (and a smaller overall economy, to match), so their North Sea income couldn't all be spent in Norway without causing massive price rises and basically stuffing their economy, The higher UK population (and larger UK economy) meant that we could/can treat all North Sea income as just another revenue stream, as a proportion of total national income, it's not large enough to actually distort the economy.

Airbus shows off uncrewed AI-powered Wingman for fighter pilots

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: FCAS

Hmm, I seem to have a moving target: originally it was 6 drones get shot down and the remaining 30 are left to kill the fighter, 36 total; now you are saying up to 70 to 1.

Just going with 50-1, you've allowed $2mil per drone (500 drones for 1 Billion).

It was reported ~3 years ago that the Saudis bought 280 Amraam (plus launchers) for $650 million [https://www.airforce-technology.com/news/us-aim-120c-amraam-missiles-sale/], so your cost allowance per drone doesn't actually cover the cost of the missile that they are due to fire, let alone the drone itself.

That above factor also ignores the practicalities of building and maintaining that many airframes: Your fleet of "7000 Bayraktar" are presumably autonomous (otherwise they need ground control, and ground based pilots), so they have a relatively high-technology 'brain' and sensors. So apart from the cost of building them, you will need a production line capable of churning them out at sufficient base to maintain that fleet size - a very secure production line, obviously, because it would be embarrassing if someone meddled with the software. Then you need to find airbases for them (with security, to protect from interference), and the maintenance personnel to keep them in flying condition.

The F16 may be an unstealthy beast from the 1970's, but the F22 doesn't have 50 years technological lead on it, since the F16 has been through various upgrades. the airframe design is old, but the engines, avionics, ECM, weapons fit, etc are all more recent. If the F22 is taking on MiG29's they are a 1980's airframe, with 1990's/early 21st C avionics, etc.

The UK doesn't have much artillery. because our defense basis is (firstly, that there are no votes in defense, so we can cut back our defences) that we are part of NATO, and therefore only need to provide 'our share', and we prioritise air capability (Typhoon with Brimstone and Storm Shadow, submarines with land attack Tomahawk).

The question you have not yet addressed is why do we think that an enemy might be sitting in Brussels firing rockets at London? Given today's date, there is a certain historical basis for it happening, but it doesn't seem a particularly credible scenario in the near future.

Whereas we do, routinely, send up manned fighter jets to intercept civilian passenger jets that have failed to respond to air traffic control, or to chase away Russian military aircraft that are snooping around UK and Eire airspace. We do, almost routinely, want to drop a few Paveway smart bombs or brimstone missiles on terrorists ("terrorists", if you prefer). It's conceivable that we might need to launch small scale air strikes against hostile powers that are less than peer competitors, perhaps to take out Iran's nuclear capability, or maybe destroy some element of Venezuelan military capability if their threats to Guyana were to escalate in to actual war, most likely to deal with some situation that was entirely unpredicted (and hence wasn't avoided by diplomacy).

Manned fighters are useful and work. We are (hopefully) not developing future military technology on the assumption that we will be fighting world war III, and therefore the only use our new equipment has to have is to fight WWIII.

And if drone swarms are so cheap and easy, we can rapidly develop them, using the technology we will develop for 6th gen fighters and loyal wingman projects, going the other way, not so much.

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: FCAS

"In the Ukraine war, over 1000 aircraft have been shot down",

Hmm, not really. If you include all the unmanned systems that are low performance and operating at low level, then based on the Oryx figures, you get around that number in total for air-system losses.

However, taking their numbers for Damaged+destroyed+captured, it's 114 Russian fixed wing aircraft and 88 Ukrainian, so 202 losses from all causes (including losses on the ground), with a further 137 Russian helicopters + 46 Ukrainian, but they are not really relevant to the discussion at hand.

However, I do not dispute that air-to-air cannon kills are vanishingly rare.

However, your scenario is also somewhat dubious - what enemy is going to have the capability to put up 36 'BVR missile truck' drones against a single unsupported (or supported by 1 or 2 'loyal wingman' drones) fighter?

Combat aircraft do not tend to operate singly. You'd expect a pair of combat aircraft as a minimum, but assuming you know the enemy have these 'BVR missile truck' drones, you likely send 4, or 8, manned aircraft. so you now have 16* air to air missiles on your four fighters plus as many again on your loyal wingmen, so you match the BVR drones for missiles, But you have semi-expendable wingman drones, plus jammers and decoys on board.

So unless the opposition can afford to make/purchase, operate and maintain 36 drones for every fighter you have, it's a tough first day and you lose some aircraft and people, and on day 2 you still have half+ your manned aircraft, and they are out of drones.

(*Typhoon standard load out is 2 Asraam [or Iris-T] plus 4 Meteor, so actually 6 per aircraft, and it can carry at least a further 2 Asraam if need be. Typhoon also has onboard jammers, plus a towed decoy system, plus dispensers for chaff, flare and mini-jammers, and the capability to launch MALDs: Miniature air-launched decoys).

One of the potential uses of 'loyal wingman' drones is also that the manned fighter does not need to emit to launch missiles, maintaining stealth / low observability..

The radar on the wingman cues the manned aircraft's IRST, which is a passive sensor, and/or the missiles on the launch aircraft directly.

Yes, launching missiles may make the aircraft detectable at that point, but that doesn't provide a constant signal that a missile can home in on, only the first awareness that something is there - which you must already have, else how / why would you know to launch your drone swarm in the first place? More modern radar guided missiles do not need constant radar illumination of the target by their launch aircraft, they 'go active' and find the target themselves within a certain range, and I think Meteor is quite happy to fly to a fixed point in space (without radar guidance), and then hunt for it's own target.

The missile truck drone as defense against manned aircraft sounds rather like the argument for replacing all manned aircraft with missiles, the main achievement of which was seriously damaging the UK aerospace industry.

Also, I'm not quite sure how you get to US stealth aircraft opponents being 50 years behind technologically. The F22 is a mid-90's aircraft, so that's saying it was taking on piston-engined propeller aircraft, which might have stress-skin construction, but might still be fabric covered, armed with cannon or machine gun, with no radar, decoys or missiles.. Plus, the US air force is generally troublesome using very much unstealthy F15s and F16s, that date back to the 1970s, but have been updated, and are flown by well trained aircrew, in a sizable and well balanced air force. It's those last points - training, mass and balance, that make the USAF the effective force that it is.

UK PM Sunak calls election, leaving Brits cringing over memory of his Musk love-in

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: Disappointing

Really?

I mean we only had this discussion 2 months ago, and that 6 months after we'd previous done it.

Last time, I cut-and-pasted the previous post, with an addition, so continuing that pattern, I've cut-and-pasted the answer for you, but with yet another addition:

As I said at the time, there were benefits in remaining, and there are benefits in leaving.

I shall not address the benefits of remaining, since you have not asked for those.

The UK's response to the vaccine roll-out (including sign-off for use and production/acquisition), and then the ability to lift lock-down several months earlier than in the EU, saved the UK huge sums of money, plus, by re-opening access to the routine services of the NHS saved countless lives. The long discussion already held in the thread two months ago correctly pointed out that in theory the UK (or any other EU country) could have approved the vaccine separate from the EU approval process. History shows that a number of EU countries started down that route then gave up and remained within the EU scheme. The idea that the UK would have procured the vaccine separately from the EU scheme, were it not for BREXIT, is highly disingenuous. It is also fair and proper to note that BREXIT opponents claimed at the time that BREXIT would actually delay procurement of the vaccine:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-vaccine-delays-brexit-ema-expensive

The UK is no longer complicit in the agricultural dumping that the EU has been doing in Africa (the last case I am aware of involved dumping milk powder, mixed with palm oil, onto the West African markets, meaning it not only undercut local farmers but meant that the poorest people there were under-nourishing their children, since the palm oil content reduces the milk's nutritional value).

The use of animals for testing cosmetics which had been made legal again by a EU ruling (in limited circumstances, true), has now been explicitly blocked, so animal testing for cosmetics is no longer permitted in the UK

(Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65623580)

We have indeed, taken back control - meaning that for most issues, UK politicians can no longer get away with blaming Brussels, like they have for decades (and like politicians in the remaining EU 27 continue to do). Thus, our politicians are now more accountable.

This also means that we can better control our fishing grounds, to the benefit of the environment. Bottom-trawling continues to occur, but is set to be banned (finally!) in UK waters; given that many of the boats carrying out this harmful activity are EU registered, it is evidently not something that the EU has acted to prevent:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/20/hoovered-up-from-the-deep-33000-hours-of-seabed-trawling-revealed-in-protected-uk-waters

Related to that, but a bit more recent:

UK's puffin protection laws at centre of post Brexit row - BBC News (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce9rrpn955qo)

Note particularly: “Wildlife campaigners across Europe have reacted with fury at the EU’s demand, with 38 conservation groups pledging their support for the UK ban, including the RSPB, ClientEarth, Oceana UK, Birdlife International, and the Marine Conservation Society.”

The UK was historically a brake on the EU federalist agenda / plan for ever closer union. With the UK having left, the EU can now more readily progress in that direction. (I'm assuming that you are not so parochial as to only want Brexit bonuses that apply to the UK).

Outside of the EU, the UK is able to make foreign policy decisions much more speedily than the EU can, since the EU typically requires consensus, which inevitably, takes time. The value of this was demonstrated 27 months ago, when the UK was one of the few countries rushing arms to Ukraine immediately before and after the Russian invasion, and more generally led the response of the world’s democracies, while the EU sought to achieve consensus amongst 27 nations. Such time-consuming census forming was entirely right and proper of the EU, but was also entirely predictable, and would have likely seen Putin achieve the gains of his 3-day Special Military War before any meaningful EU response would have taken effect.

The UK has left a customs union and pollical organisation that amounts to about 14% of the global economy (16% if including the UK), the countries of the EU 28 (ie EU27 + UK) having previously (1980's) amounted to about 25% of the global economy, and joined the free trade organisation that is CPTPP (which we could not otherwise have done), whose 11 members (prior to UK joining) amount to about 14% of the global economy, but whose importance has been growing. Furthermore, the potential expansion of the EU is limited to relatively small/relatively poor countries, plus Ukraine (which is understandably going to be a huge drain on global funds for many years after their victory against the Russians, to repair the damage the Russians have done). Oh, and Turkey, though we were all told quite specifically by the 'remain' campaign that they were definitely not joining the EU. The current and potential candidate (last time I checked, roughly half a dozen applicants and half a dozen 'expressed interest in joining', from memory) nations for CPTPP meanwhile include a number of significant and significantly growing economies.

So plenty of clear, tangible, benefits.

Destroying offshore wind farms is top priority for Trump if he returns to presidency

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: These are weird times.

Mark 85,

As I understand it, the allegation is that the rotation of blades and turbine generate vibrations that affect the whales' sonar, leading to mass stranding events, or something along those lines.

As, sadly, seems to be the case with anything related to energy production and net zero, this theory is either utter rubbish claims by climate sceptics and therefore to be dismissed without any thought or investigation, or 100% the truth and a reason to dismantle every wind turbine ever built, whether on land or sea.

That vibrations are generated seems to be a real thing. To what extent they affect marine mammals or other wildlife seems less clear (though not a subject I read up on much, so I admit I don't really know).

There would seem to be enough evidence to justify further research, particularly since off-shore wind is increasingly moving further off-shore / to deeper waters, and potentially will see the use of tethered/floating turbines, rather than turbines anchored to the seabed through a mono-pile, meaning potentially a change in how vibrations might be transferred into the water.

Cops developing Ghostbusters-esque weapon to take out e-bike thugs

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

If they then catch the crooks...

Will they then be incarcerated in a basement containment facility, built beneath an old fire station?

And if two plod have these gizmos, what happens if they cross the streams?

Tesla devotee tests Cybertruck safety with his own finger – and fails

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: "It appears this faith is sorely misplaced"

'Sore' here being the operative word.

UK opens investigation of MoD payroll contractor after confirming attack

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

I'm Shocked

Shocked, I tell you.

Not that MoD payroll records were being handled by a private company.

Nor that the records were hacked.

Nor even that the Chinese government was probably responsible.

No, I'm shocked that, after near enough 35 years of continuous cut backs, with an army smaller than any time since the Revolutionary and Napoleonic wars, the RAF smaller than any time in its existence, and the RN suffering a shortage of personnel, the UK still has 230,000 service personnel.

Some smart meters won't be smart at all once 2/3G networks mothballed

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: So, smart meter joy is continuing

I get two emails a week telling me I need a smart meter and how wonderful they are.

I ignore these emails.

I also now get told to supply my meter reading every month - no longer just quarterly.

Doesn't take long, and gives me more accurate billing, which I suspect is in my favour.

I wonder whether the demand for a meter reading will become more frequent, and move to fortnightly then weekly, as they get more desperate.

Post Office slapped down for late disclosure of documents in Horizon scandal inquiry

EvilDrSmith Silver badge

Re: Why is Paula Vennells still walking the streets?

Start with ever member of the Post Office board. Then add to the list every politician that served as Post Offices minster between 1999 and 2015. And then add to the list every senior civil servant that advised said minsters.

Arrest and charge with (Conspiracy to ) Pervert the course of justice.

If/when found guilty (fair trial - I'm sure the 12 men and women of the jury will be suitably sympathetic), don't send them to prison, Bankrupt them. Seize every penny, every asset, that they have, to be used for compensation for the Sub-postmasters and postmistresses that they persecuted.

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