Stellar article. It is great to see someone in the press who has the courage to not echo the echo chamber.
The 30 Billion miles is actually low. RAND says 500B at 10X better than a human and Toyota says 1 trillion.
My name is Michael DeKort. I am a former systems engineer, engineering and program manager for Lockheed Martin. I worked in aircraft simulation, the software engineering manager for all of NORAD, the Aegis Weapon System, and on C4ISR for DHS. I also worked in Commercial IT and Cybersecurity.
I received the IEEE Barus Ethics Award for whistleblowing regarding the DHS Deepwater program post 9/11 - http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?arnumber=4468728
I am also a member of the SAE On-Road Autonomous Driving Validation & Verification Task Force - (SAE asked me to join the group because of my POV on this area and my background)
It is a myth that the use of public shadow driving to develop autonomous vehicles will ever come close to actually creating one. You can never drive the one trillion miles, spend over $300B or harm as many people as this process will harm trying to do so. What happens when you move from benign and hyped scenarios to running thousands of accident scenarios thousands of times each? The answer is to leverage FAA practices and use aerospace/DoD level simulation.
More details in my articles here
Impediments to Creating an Autonomous Vehicle
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/impediments-creating-autonomous-vehicle-michael-dekort/
Autonomous Levels 4 and 5 will never be reached without Simulation vs Public Shadow Driving for AI
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/autonomous-levels-4-5-never-reached-without-michael-dekort
DoT, NHTSA and NTSB are Enabling Autonomous Vehicle Tragedies
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/dot-nhtsa-ntsb-enabling-autonomous-vehicle-tragedies-michael-dekort/
Tesla and Elon Musk are killing people for no reason and will never get close to producing a truly autonomous vehicle
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/tesla-elon-musk-killing-people-reason-never-get-close-michael-dekort/