If you're advocating unprecedented lockdown how wrong is acceptable?
For those still wavering over whether Imperial College's 'Report 9' was useful:
Warning: This analysis contains more numbers that are not just dates. Big numbers - you will run out of fingers.
Report 9 predictions published on 16 Mar 2020:
1) Peak of about 22 deaths per 100,000 people per day in GB = 14,340 deaths/day
2) Total of 510,000 deaths
The report says:
Epidemic timings are approximate given the limitations of surveillance data...
Observation:
3) Epidemic deaths started in early March. The first day with more than 1 death was 5 Mar 2020.
Best fit Gompertz curve for the above three constraints:
cumulative_deaths = 510000*EXP(-15.13*EXP(-0.07645*dayno))
Where dayno=1 is 1 Mar 2020.
Results:
Note the report covers 'GB'. England, Wales and Scotland. So the Reality numbers do too.
a) 9 Mar 2020: Reality: 13 cumulative, 5 daily. Report 9 calc: 254 cumulative: 115 daily.
b) 16 Mar 2020: Reality: 153 cumulative; 53 daily. Report 9 calc: 5,941 deaths; 1,770 daily.
c) 23 Mar 2020: Reality: 1,006 cumulative; 202 daily. Report 9 calc: 37,603 cumulative; 7,036 daily.
d) 28 Mar 2020: Reality: 2,969 cumulative: 507 daily. Report 9 calc: 86,087 cumulative; 11,347 daily.
e) 31 Mar 2020: Reality: 5,072 cumulative; 819 daily. Report 9 calc: 123,962 cumulative; 13,176 daily
f) 5 Apr 2020: Reality: 10,357 cumulative; 1,203 daily. Report 9 calc: 194,281 cumulative; 14,339 daily (peak).
g) 8 Apr 2020: Reality: 14,251 cumulative; 1,450 daily (peak). Report 9 calc: 236,774 cumulative; 14,003 daily.
The data available from a week before the publication date of 'Report 9' showed it was catastrophically wrong. Lockdown still went ahead on 23 Mar even though further data also supported the view that it was complete bollocks.
What was the evidence that persuaded the government to order the lockdown?