Re: not happening
"I wish I would stop hearing this dream, that there will be this huge onrush to Linux after Windows does something "X". It's not going to happen."
Probably not with Linux. But Windows is already losing market share left and right to Mac OS and ChromeOS. Because the TCO of both platforms is notably lower, and user satisfaction a lot higher than with Windows.
"Companies will not spend man-hours to upgrade and retrain"
Strange argument, because the same companies clearly need to upgrade to something because Windows 10 will be dead soon.
And retrain, for what? For employees which, for most part, have zero trouble using tablets, phones and any other kind of devices with widely varying user interfaces? Or the now completely revamped interface in Windows 11, or the constant UX experiments Microsoft forces onto its users of its on-prem and MS365 offerings?
"and no industry that runs industry-specific software - be it the creatives, pharmaceutical, retail, financial, manufacturing, accounting, and more - will *ever* be satisfied with hearing "Just run it in a VM / emulator!"."
Outside a few niches, most business specific software is already running in a web browser, connected to the cloud (and the ones that aren't will be there soon!). If you haven't noticed, even Microsoft has been busy killing off its on-premises software one by one to get its customers into their cloud offerings.
What's left are a small number of businesses with niche applications which have to be run locally for one reason or another, and a larger number of businesses who made the stupid move to buy into some shitty software which is built on top of Microsoft Office. These are literally the only edge cases which need to stick with Microsoft and the Windows platform, but the second group wholeheartedly deserves what it gets.
"No. Not happening. Dream on. We've got decades of proof that this won't happen yet every Linuxhead keeps trying to revive the dream."
You're not wrong, we "day of the Linux desktop" has been coming soon for a quarter of a century. So no, Linux (as in regular Linux distros) are not going to replace Windows in businesses anytime soon.
But other alternatives already are. And the outcome has been universally much lower TCO and much more satisfied users.
Windows won't go away, but in the not too distant future it'll only be the OS of choice for the kind of businesses that still think it's hip to have fax machines.
"Windows 11 isn't being adopted because of a combination of locked-in hardware requirements and a known level of integrated telemetry, "
Telemetry which already exists in Windows 10 (and which has been retrofitted to Windows 7 and 8.x as well).
If you think that's new then you must have been in a coma over the last decade or so.