* Posts by Paul Graham

1 publicly visible post • joined 11 Aug 2007

Earth will feel the heat from 2009: climate boffins

Paul Graham

A small correction

1998, is still considered the hottest year on record; Steve McIntyre change only effects American temperatures. This is due to the necessary requirement to adjust temperatures for the urban heat island artifact, which effects is cities/towns have less wind, to drive temperatures down, and more heat adsorbing surfaces, i.e. asphalt.

The dataset in question has their temperatures adjusted in comparison to rural temperatures; where hopeful these artificial temperature artifacts are minimized. What happened is unadjusted data replaced the adjusted data at around 1996, giving an artificial jump in temperatures. This was an unbelievable failure in basic competency; and NASA should pay a significance price is the respect given to it.

Now I have heard comments that so what the rest of the world is still warming up; however the rest of the world temperatures either haven’t been adjusted else don’t stretch back far enough to see if temperatures are part of a natural trend or caused by AGW (Green House Gases). What now is needed A) all currant temperature dataset and methods to be publicly available, this will allow for auditing of claims made B) utilization of all available data to get a reliable historical view of the climate, only then can verify that AGW theories are effecting the planet.

Also I point about the article in question contains a lot of guff about ElNino keeping a lid on temperature changes; CRAP you would still see a upward trend anything else is a LIE. The Problem that Climate alarmists have is world temperature have stagnated since 2000; again this is inexplicable and a might blow to AGW theories. Now let me make a prediction 2009-2014 will see temperatures increases because that totally in-line with the solar activity theories that are derided but now proven.


Therefore, during this period we would expect to see global temperatures rises of around .2 of degree; I would expect rises between .1 to .3 depending on the strength of the next solar cycle; thought if is an unexpectedly weak solar cycle I could foresee temperature drops.

What we have is a preemptive strike by the Met Office to stake a claim on Solar Forcing for AGW theories, and thus keep its reputation for a few more years. So how did that come about this prediction? Well only with full access to the Models, methods and dataset could we be sure. Nevertheless, I will hazard two guesses; what has happen by using the hind-casts they’ve stumbled on an 11 year cycle, but as they haven’t included the 11 year solar cycle in there models, they believe their entitled have any effect. Alternatively, they have utilized a learning algorithm/neural nets, which learned on this cycle. This would allow them to dishonestly claim it’s the models fault and the next version is better. This please upgrade approach has allowed there sidestep incorrect predation when in truth it’s an unscientific approach

Of could it’s possible that this was deliberate act to misinform the public.