* Posts by Kepler

236 publicly visible posts • joined 7 Feb 2014

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Microsoft's nightmare DEEPENS: Windows 8 market share falling fast

Kepler
Unhappy

Re: The REAL Mystery in the Numbers:

@Blacksmith:

(1) You have my condolences!*

(2) While some people may find themselves in your boat, could you and they together possibly account for the numbers, or user percentages, reported by Netmarketshare and StatCounter?

Not being able to upgrade is, of course, a very good explanation — indeed, the best imaginable! — but I question whether it could apply to some 5.5-7.5 percent of all (desktop?) Web-browsing devices. So I remain somewhat puzzled.

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* Perhaps we should have a new icon that's a photo of Bill Clinton with the caption "I feel your pain"? Or maybe the empath (Kathryn Hays, or "Gem") from the Star Trek episode "The Empath"?

Kepler
Windows

The problem with Windows 8.1

"[T]he latest version of 8.1 [is] good[,] . . . . fast, very stable[,] and can actually be used with just a mouse and keyboard . . . . The problem is it took Microsoft over two years to get it to that point . . . ."

That, and the fact that it's still not a proper Start Button, leading to a proper Start Menu.

And it now appears that M$ may not ever make a proper Start Button and Start Menu available to users of Windows 8.x, opting instead to try to make us pay for what it should have left available from the outset!

Charging us to upgrade to multiple desktops and other genuinely new (at least for Microsoft) capabilities is defensible, but there is no excuse for charging us to put back a basic feature that has been there all along and only recently and erroneously/stupidly taken away.

Kepler
Go

Simon Sharwood's maths

"did anyone else notice that according to StatCounter the 8+8.1 share was steadily increasing"?

"I noticed the overall Windows 8 increase too."

There's only a discrepancy between Netmarketshare's numbers and StatCounter's in regard to the most recent one-month period. If you look at the full 12 months of data points (making for 11 months of change), both series show slow but steady growth for Windows 8 and 8.1 combined, with a slow but steady shift within the combined total from 8 to 8.1. On the face of the data as they presently stand, the one-month decline per Netmarketshare must be presumed to be a temporary blip — at least until another month or two's worth of data points confirm it or contradict it.

I, too, am no lover of Windows 8.x. I would be happy to see the numbers say otherwise. But they don't say what Simon said they do — that "the overall share of 8.x is now trending downwards" — at least not yet.

Kepler
WTF?

The REAL Mystery in the Numbers:

Why is anyone still using Windows 8 rather than 8.1? The upgrade is free, and easy to download and install, and unambiguously superior. There is nothing Windows 8 offers that Windows 8.1 lacks.

(Often with Microsoft we have to put the word "upgrade" in quotation marks, but this is not one of those instances. The "upgrade" from Windows 7 to 8 was such an instance — notwithstanding some genuine improvements under the hood — but the upgrade from 8 to 8.1 is not.)

So why have victims of Windows 8 been so slow to upgrade? I ask this not as some kind of an argument or snipe disguised as a question, but because I am genuinely puzzled. I would like to know the reason.

Vanished blog posts? Enterprise gaps? Welcome to Windows 10

Kepler
Coat

Re: what Windows 8 /should/ have been

Rallicat:

"[T]hese guys are putting together what Windows 8 /should/ have been from the beginning . . . ."

Mage:

"I seriously doubt that."

Then how about . . . what Windows Vista should have been?

Kepler
Facepalm

"sending a clear signal that this is a different beast from Windows 8"

You've made a good case for calling it "Windows 9" instead of "Windows 8.2", Rallicat, but there's still no justification for calling it "Windows 10".

Kepler
Headmaster

"a much newer version"

"If I were an average consumer shopping for a computer to replace my current one on 7 or 8, and I walked into a Shop and saw "Windows 10" - I would instinctively feel as though it was a much newer version that my current PC - and would want it more. It's a shrewd move by MS that might pay off in the consumer space."

Still no excuse for the idiocy of calling it "10" instead of "9".

What's that you say? It's a generational improvement this time rather than a merely incremental one?* That's what incrementing the number to the left of the decimal point is for! By one. You don't increment it by two unless it's actually somehow two generations' worth of improvement.

The dweebs at Microsoft don't even know basic English. ("Cloud first, mobile first." Yeah, and everyone's above average.)

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* See:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/09/30/microsoft_windows_10/

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/10/01/will_corporates_go_for_windows_10/

Kepler
Coat

Why SOME people do not like Live Tiles

"Live Tiles are just icons with built in notification support, which may come from the internet or directly from the local app itself. And if you don't like the notification part you can switch it off either globally or on a tile by tile basis, functionally turning them back into plain old icons.

Quite what all the endless fuss and complaining about them is I truly fail to see."

They take up too much space,* and are far too demanding of out attention. Even when notifications have been turned off so they do not move. Visually they shout.

If one had the option to place them on the desktop instead of on a menu (whether full-screen or pop-up), they would be far less intrusive. Those who don't like them would be far less bothered by them there than on a menu (and would be further pleased by having the option to be rid of them altogether!), those who do like them would still be able to use them — and to place them anywhere they like (Start Screen, Start Menu, desktop, or all three!), and *I* might even start using them!

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* On the Start Screen this is not really a problem, but on the Start Menu it is. Their presence in any significant number requires that the Start Menu be made gigantic, so that it will cover nearly all one's work when it opens. Just as the Start Screen hides one's work altogether.

And on the Start Menu they dwarf, and thereby tend to eclipse, all ordinary icons and their labels.

Kepler
Windows

Live tiles on the desktop?

The caption to one of the photos speaks of "live tiles on the desktop", but nowhere in the discussion or photos does it appear that live tiles actually can be placed on the desktop. On the Start Menu, clearly,* but on the desktop itself?

I, personally, have zero use for live tiles. However, someone in one of the comment threads on another article, posted about a week ago, suggested that live tiles might be useful on the desktop, and lamented the capability's present and foreseeable absence. It struck me that such was a good idea and something users could benefit from being given the option of.

(From changing the mode of mouse-menu interaction in the move from Windows 3.1 to Windows 95, to shoving the awful new Metro interface down everyone's throat in Windows 8 (i.e., 8.0), giving users multiple options and then letting them choose for themselves has never been a Microsoft hallmark.)

Given that live tiles serve a notification function (the whole point of their being "live"!), in addition to serving as oversized menu entries or application-launching icons, the desktop is actually the best and most natural and logical place to place them! (For those who want them in the first place, that is.) So why not place them where users actually reside and do their work, instead of on one or more special menus that have to be specially invoked and opened or switched to? Or rather, allow the user to place them there — if he wants to.

(I'd be more than happy for them to remain optional on the Start Menu, and for the Start Screen to remain an option as well.)

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* And presumably on the Start Screen as well, which Tim refers to at one point as the Start Menu ("the full-screen Start menu") and says "is off by default". (The Start Menu may go unused, but in no version of Windows (that had a Start menu in the first place) have users ever been able to turn it off altogether, so that it is not even there to be clicked on. That fact plus the adjective "full-screen" make it clear that Tim must have meant the Start Screen, not the Start Menu.)

One Windows? How does that work... and WTF is a Universal App?

Kepler
WTF?

"Universal" my ass!

"Another issue is that universal apps only support Windows Runtime (Windows Store app) targets. Standard Windows desktop apps are not included."

WTF??!!!

I understood from the outset that we would not be talking about truly (almost) universal apps — "universal" in the sense of running under Mac OS X (including iOS), Linux (including Android), and the various (other) BSDs (let alone AIX, Solaris, and any other Unix variants, but still presumably omitting NonStop, OpenVMS, Neutrino/BBOS 10, and gazillions of other OSes) as well as under the various (surviving) OSes with the word "Windows" in their name — but this isn't even universal with respect to the Microsoft universe alone!

Provide the ability to generate apps for the classic ("desktop") environment as well as for "Modern" or "Metro" and then you will have some valid (if still qualified) claim to the term "universal". But quit jacking us off until that happens.

El Reg's new ads prevent content from loading

Kepler
Thumb Down

P.S.

P.S. Another new ad form El Reg has just started using is annoying, but does not appear to prevent the rest of the page from loading. I refer to the videos that slide into the bottom of the screen from the right.

I hate all videos on any site that start themselves automatically — without my permission — causing my computer to suddenly emit sound that bothers those around me. (This is why I no longer click on links to the Huffington Post or open news stories en route to my AOL In box anymore.)

(I also begrudge the extra bandwidth and CPU cycles such video advertisements eat up, and I just hope they do not contribute to memory leaks that will eventually require me to reboot — losing my backlog of more-than-a-week-old Register articles I hadn't gotten to yet!

And moving ads in general are distracting, and therefore annoying. By diverting the eye they make it harder to read the actual story.)

But again, these ads merely annoy the Hell out of me; they do not prevent other content from loading. I add the advertisers who placed them — along with any company or product whose logo blocks my view of the cheerleaders during a televised NFL football game! — to my list of companies and products to boycott, as punishment for pissing me off, but there are no deeper repercussions or technical consequences.

Kepler
Thumb Up

Re: El Reg's new ads prevent content from loading

I'll keep an eye out for the problem's presence or absence as I open new articles, Matt. Thank you for looking into it!

But I must emphasize, it was not any one ad in particular. The one I quoted above was just the latest instance, in a series of well over a dozen different ads all of which produced the same result! It was the form and placement of the ad — not the identity of the advertiser or the content of the specific ad — that appeared to be causing the problem. Or rather — more precisely — not the shape or position of the ad, but some code common to all (or at least most) of the ads that occupy the new rectangle at the top of the page.

Kepler
FAIL

El Reg's new ads prevent content from loading

El Reg's new ads prevent the actual stories from loading. Repeatedly. This has been going on for nearly a week now, or at least for the past several days. (I do not recall just when it started happening.)

Those new rectangular ads that open up at the top of the page appear to be the culprit. The ad is there, but the rest of the page is blank. The page starts to load — including the red rectangular field at the top of the page with the vulture head between "The" and "Register" (and the lovely motto, "Biting the hand that feeds IT"), and the solid colored page border as well (sometimes solid El Reg red, and sometimes a faint powdery light blue) — but then everything else disappears just before the ad appears.

Although this problem is getting to be pretty darn annoying, I mostly just wanted to bring it to El Reg's attention. It happened yet again just now, and that was the final straw.

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P.S. In case it makes any difference, I'm using Chrome under Windows 8.1. My version of Chrome is Version 37.0.2062.120 m, which is very close to current. (I can't close all the gazillions of tabs I currently have open, so I cannot yet "Relaunch Google Chrome to finish updating.")

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P.P.S. Ironically but coincidentally, the particular ad that was for me the final straw asks "How do the right ads make the Internet better?" Supply your own snappy replies below!

Apple is GOLDBRICKING IT: BEHOLD the iPad Glister-Slab

Kepler
Pint

"And I only had eyes for Linda Carter or Catherine Bach."

My "up" vote was for Lynda Carter and Catherine Bach!

(Sounds like it must have been 1979! The only year in which they were both on TV (first-run), from late January to early September.)

Kepler
Joke

Remember: Too much gold can be deadly!

As anyone who saw the movie I'm Gonna Git You Sucka* will remember, too much gold can be deadly!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vInmy1-i-w

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* I have always considered this movie to be the pilot film for the TV show In Living Color. Which in turn — for better or worse — introduced the world to Jim Carrey.

Microsoft WINDOWS 10: Seven ATE Nine. Or Eight did really

Kepler
Headmaster

Re: Mint indeed!

"the Start screen shown in the first photo"

I meant the Start Menu, not the Start Screen. The photo's caption says "Start screen", but what the photo shows is the proposed new Start Menu.

Kepler
Holmes

Re: Can't count

No shit!

These are the same genii who thought to designate the first version of Windows NT "version 3.1",* who counted "1, 2, 3, 95, 98 . . ." when designating versions of the original Windows, who followed version 2 of Word for Windows with version 6, and version 1 of Word for Mac with version 3, and so on.

* I've always been told that programmers and computer scientists start counting with zero, but apparently this isn't always the case!

Kepler
Linux

Mint indeed!

For me the key word in the article may have been "Mint", in the top right corner of the Start screen shown in the first photo. It may have denoted the financial services Web site from Intuit, but it's also the name of the Linux distro I think I'm now even closer to switching to.

Business is back, baby! Hasta la VISTA, Win 8... Oh, yeah, Windows 9

Kepler
Facepalm

"Enterprises" vs. "Consumers"?

Though valid in other contexts and for other purposes, the dichotomy this article maintains between enterprise customers and consumers is highly artificial as far as Windows 8 and Metro are concerned. "Consumers" hate Windows 8 and Metro just as much as businesses do!

Which is hardly surprising, since consumers — like the people that make up business enterprises — are human beings. The features that make Metro and Windows 8 annoying and unattractive to enterprises make them annoying and unattractive to everyone! Including consumers.

Will It Blend? Maybe. BlackBerry’s secret comeback weapon

Kepler
Go

Re: Wikipedia fail?

P.P.S. I up-voted your comment anyway. (Not that you care, having posted anonymously!) Because "Personal Information Manager" almost certainly was meant in at least one of the three instances, and possibly two. Your "Wikipedia" red herring is beside the point, and certainly was not reason enough to withhold my oh-so-precious vote (let alone to down-vote an otherwise on-target observation).

Kepler
Coat

Re: Wikipedia fail?

I think in the first instance, and maybe the second as well, he meant the latter ("Protocol-Independent Multicast"), because he was talking about the link between the BB and other devices with which the BB is to share various kinds of information. (Or else referring to a type of message by the name of the protocol by which it is transmitted? Like using "SMS" to refer to text messages?) But then in the third instance (and maybe the second as well!) he changed meanings, and did indeed mean the former ("Personal Information Manager"), as you suggest.

I'm glad to see I'm not the only one who found this confusing. I bitched about this ambiguity and apparent equivocation in a post that — pending moderator approval — will appear below (under the title "PIM").

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P.S. Regardless of what was meant in each instance, and whether Orlowski used the right definition of "PIM" or not, how can that possibly be a "Wikipedia fail[ure]"??? His article had nothing to do with Wikipedia, and Wikipedia had nothing to do with his article! Wikipedia was not the source of his definition of "PIM", nor was it identified as such.

'Windows 9' LEAK: Microsoft's playing catchup with Linux

Kepler
Coat

"Spaces" in Mac OS X

Spaces was/were announced in 2006, at Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference, on August 7, but the feature was not actually released to the general public until October 26, 2007, in Mac OS X version 10.5 ("Leopard"). The latter date is when most people would say the feature was actually "introduced".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spaces_(software)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_OS_X_Leopard

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OS_X#Version_10.5:_.22Leopard.22

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_desktop#Mac_OS

Kepler
Pint

Virtual Desktops — Who had them first? (was "Re: Meeeh")

". . . the award for virtual desktops probably goes to the Commodore Amiga."

Almost certainly! Unless someone I don't know about had them even earlier.

I forget whether the Amiga supported multiple "Screens" from the get-go, in July 1985, or only introduced them a year or two later, but it had them long before Linux even existed. (Wikipedia's "Virtual desktop" entry indicates that the Amiga supported multiple desktops from the get-go, with 1985's Amiga 1000.[1]) And thanks to the hardware support, different "screens" or virtual desktops could have different resolutions! (just like different windows could on the Amiga) — a feature no other virtual desktop system I know of has had.

Furthermore, PC Tools for Windows offered virtual desktops in 1993 or 1994 (March 1993, it turns out, in version 1.0[2]) — under Windows 3.1! (and maybe even 3.0?) — and OS/2 introduced virtual desktops with version 4, in 1996.

And of course BeOS supported virtual desktops, with its "Workspaces" . (Don't know in what year Workspaces were first introduced, but I know it had them by the Summer of 1996. Wikipedia says BeOS was "first developed . . . in 1991", but dates Developer Releases 1 through 5 all to October 1995.)

Virtual desktops have been available under Unix through the X Window System for quite some time, but I cannot tell just how long. (The last time *I* used Unix — on a PDP-10 or -11 (I forget which) — was some 4-6 years before X was even invented!) According to Wikipedia, the fact that X Window makes window management a separate function allowed third-party developers to introduce a host of features to the X Window System, including virtual desktop capabilities. However, Wikipedia does not indicate what window manager was the first to offer virtual desktops under X, or in what year they were offered.

Surprisingly, OS X did not introduce virtual desktops until late 2007, with version 10.5 ("Leopard"). (Did NeXT never offer them under NeXTStep or OpenStep? Does anybody know?)

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[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_desktop

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[2] http://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/9312292500/virtual-desktops-dress-up-pc-tools

http://www.nytimes.com/1993/03/16/science/personal-computers-better-late-and-better-for-being-late.html

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1993-03-22/business/1993081008_1_norton-desktop-pc-tools-desktop-for-windows

Ballmer leaves Microsoft board to spend more time with his b-balls

Kepler
IT Angle

Re: P.S.

Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Allen#Portland_Trail_Blazers

As you can see, he also owns the Seattle Seahawks of the National Football League, this year's Super Bowl champions.

It is widely reported that when Allen first sought an NBA basketball team, he tried to buy his beloved hometown Seattle SuperSonics. However, when the owner of the Sonics would not sell, Allen looked a short distance south to Portland, and bought the Trail Blazers instead.

(I see now that "Trail Blazers" is actually two words, not one, as I had it before. "SuperSonics" was one word, but the second S was capitalized anyway. And the Sonics are now the Oklahoma City Thunder, having left Seattle in 2008 after 41 years.)

Kepler
Pint

P.S.

I for one will be pulling for Portland every time the Trailblazers play the Clippers.

(I trust everyone remembers who owns the Trailblazers!)

Kepler
Windows

MS Stock Price

Did Microsoft's stock rise on the news that he's stepping down?

REG MAN penetrates GOOGLE'S LAIR

Kepler
Pint

“Open Channel D”

While I loved the Man from U.N.C.L.E. reference — it was my favorite show as a kid (until Star Trek came along) — this is a wristwatch, not a mechanical pencil. Something like "Hemlock Holmes calling Dick Tracy" (2:35), or vice versa (0:05), would be much more appropriate:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZesZiTGaEM

(And if he'd been talking into the heel of his shoe, . . .)

HP, Microsoft prove it again: Big Business doesn't create jobs

Kepler
Facepalm

Re: Not that Mr. Worstall

SEDT is absolutely right.

In simplest terms, inflation is simply "too much money chasing too few goods." All else equal, more goods = less inflation (or even deflation, as SEDT points out), not more.

Kepler
Angel

"Small firms should be subject to less red tape than large companies."

At first blush that makes sense. However, if you do that, then you end up putting a tax on growth.

In the United States, for example, there are numerous federal statutes and regulations[1] (and some state ones as well, I believe) that exempt companies or employers with fewer than X employees; most commonly "X" is 50, but in some instances it is 15, and I think in a few instances it is something like 30 or 35. (I used to keep a list of such statutes and regulations, but no longer.) In consequence of this approach and practice, many companies deliberately decline to expand and grow, choosing instead to remain just below some applicable threshold (most commonly the 50-employee one) in order to remain exempt from the additional regulations and the vastly increased cost of regulatory compliance that would be incurred by going above the threshold. In effect, the government has erected a series of "speed bumps" standing in the way of job creation, and these speed bumps — taken together — end up having a substantial retardant effect.

It certainly is true that, as an Anonymous Coward pointed out above, larger firms have an inherent and substantial advantage in complying with regulations in comparison to their smaller competitors, due to economies of scale:

"It's probably also not a coincidence that red tape will be less of a problem for larger, more established — and politically more powerful and influential — businesses that have the economies of scale which make dealing with it easier — and thus, obviously, give[] them a comp[eti]tive advantage against smaller rivals who can't justify employing dedicated staff for that purpose."

This is obviously and intrinsically unfair, and unfortunate for the economy, and it also is why large businesses so often end up cutting deals with politicians and bureaucrats, acquiescing in regulations that they will be able to handle in stride (passing some of the cost on to their customers) but that will hobble — and ultimately protect them from — their smaller competitors and potential competitors.[2]

But there is no good solution to this problem. Larger firms will always have an advantage over smaller firms in this regard, and there is nothing that can be done about it. Or at least nothing that would be wholly adequate. (Were I suddenly magically in charge of everything, I would try to find ways to give smaller firms a break all the same. I'm just not sure how I would go about it.) If you try to deal with it simply by exempting smaller firms from regulations, you will basically change the form of the problem but not make it go away, or even diminish it.

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"Article asserts that big companies don't create jobs, small ones do. Can't agree. If the author had said: growing companies create jobs, static ones don't — that would be more likely." (Emphasis added.)

To some degree you're both right. Tim is right that, empirically, most new jobs tend to be created by smaller firms. But you are right as well in pointing out that it is not so much all small firms that create jobs as it is the ones that succeed and grow. Small firms create jobs — in part — not simply by virtue of by being small, but by growing and ceasing to be small!

(In fairness, others create jobs not by growing, but simply by coming into existence in the first place. They end up being significant as a source of employment collectively, despite their failure to grow (very much) individually, because they are so numerous! And because new ones are being created all the time.)

But insofar as having small firms succeed, grow, and thereby cease to be small is a key to job creation (one of the major sources of new jobs), it will not behoove you to penalize firms for growing by placing new, additional regulatory burdens upon them as they grow, conditional upon their employing additional workers. To do so, again, is in effect to tax job creation. And if you tax something, you will always get less of it.

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[1] The terminology is confusing and somewhat ambiguous in the American context. Americans (and especially lawyers) routinely distinguish between "statutes" and "regulations", the latter being rules of administration imposed in the implementation of statutes by regulatory agencies. However, many statutes are themselves clearly regulatory in nature, and therefore count as "regulations" or "regulation" in an economic sense.

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[2] In the United States, the Business Roundtable — a guild/clique/club of fat-cat CEOs of very large publicly traded corporations — is notorious for this sort of thing. It is the polar opposite of the NFIB, the National Federation of Independent Business. I do not know whether the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is still on the side of the angels (and the NFIB) today — I have heard that it may no longer be, and has been turned into a shill for large corporate donors — but it certainly used to be on the side of good and liberty and economic vibrancy, rather than entrenchment of the Establishment, in decades gone by. For instance, in the 1980s and early '90s, when Richard Rahn and then Larry Hunter served as its Chief Economist.

Kepler
Devil

"[Y]ou have to follow almost the same rules as Ford or BP."

BP follows rules?

Kepler
Facepalm

Re: M$ & HP will work things through....

"M$ will do it's usual job creation rally by releasing an "upgrade" that makes half of your hardware obsolete." Etc,

That is not economic stimulus (for the economy as a whole), nor even "creative destruction". It's just the same old "broken window fallacy" about which Bastiat wrote. The stimulus to one sector of the economy (be it glazing or computer hardware) comes at the expense of other parts of the economy whose losses are unseen. Those losses consist of the things that would have been bought, and produced, had we not had to waste money upgrading our machines prematurely (or buying a new window). And the higher overall level of human want-satisfaction that is foregone as a result.

"Stimulus" like this is really only a transfer, and it always leaves society and the economy poorer on net. We don't even break even on the transfer; the unseen losses always, necessarily outweigh the visible gains.

("Green jobs" are another example of this fallacy.)

Kepler
Happy

P.S.

Excellent essay, Tim!

Not sure I agree with the paragraph about IP,* but the whole thing was a splendid and insightful exposition.

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* I haven't thought about intellectual property in years, and it's also hard to tell from such a brief sketch what your position is. It's easy to say "not too strong, not too weak . . . just right", but I suspect the correct answer consists more of what specific protections to have than of how much or how strong. But again, I'm rusty.

Kepler
Boffin

The ONLY Frog ever to really grok economics?

"A certain M'sieu Bastiat, the only Frog ever to really grok economics, . . . ."

Surely Say and Turgot did as well.

(Turgot even understood time preference and the vital market function of interest! Thomas Jefferson kept a bust of Turgot at Monticello; it's there to this day. And just like Böhm-Bawerk, the man who rediscovered Turgot's insights about time preference, interest, and capital structure a little over a century later, Turgot served as his country's Minister of Finance.)

Oh, and also Bertrand, and Jacques Rueff.

(Unfortunately, despite Bertrand's incisive refutation, the errors of his fellow Frenchy Cournot haunt us and infect industrial organization and monopoly theory to this day.)

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(Quesnay had an important partial understanding of economics. Despite crucial flaws in his outlook, he contributed much. But I can't say he really grokked the whole.

It also is tempting to add Gerard Debreu, who surely had some understanding of economics, and at least appreciated more than most the interconnectedness of all markets, but his gift really lay more in highly abstract math(s) than in true understanding. He formalized the general-equilibrium theory of Walras without ever really understanding or appreciating its full significance or its far-reaching implications. Most economists still don't!* So I can't say he grokked it, either.)

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* Hell, even Debreu's fellow Nobel Laureate (albeit in a different year), that Limey Sir John Hicks, didn't see the implications of general-equilibrium theory. If he'd really understood the first part of his book Value and Capital (a seminal exposition of general-equilibrium theory), he wouldn't have written the Keynesian remainder, for he'd have realized that the first part undermined and refuted the rest!

Kepler
Thumb Up

Re: Good article, but...

Al Bundy at Speakers Corner ("Am I alone here in hating the French?")

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7bK5w1Sm0Q

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(The entire clip is just 1 minute, 21 seconds long, and the whole scene is funny, but the crucial part starts at 1:12.)

Programming languages in economics: Cool research, bro, but what about, er, economics?

Kepler
Go

Re: Our Methodologically Obtuse NBER

And while the paper suffers from numerous defects,*

(1) the authors do acknowledge and make near the end of their paper the very same point that Tim makes in the article (about economics, and which scarce resource is the one that most needs to be economized on); and

(2) the results they provide do appear to be a good and useful set of data points for others to use — and expand on — in the future.

So it wasn't as bad as first appeared.

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* Mistakes in the paper include: repeated errors of English usage; several errors of number-transcription between the results table in the appendix and the summary of results in the body of the paper — many in the original version, and at least one surviving revision; and even a few calculational errors within the results table (some possibly due to rounding, but some too big to be due to rounding).

Kepler
Coat

Re: Our Methodologically Obtuse NBER

Turns out it wasn't actually a true "NBER paper" at all. That is, the paper was not actually formally published by the NBER the way its official papers are. It was merely a circulated working paper. Which carried the following explanation and disclaimer at the beginning:

"NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications."

http://www.nber.org/papers/w20263.pdf

The later, revised and partially corrected version of the paper posted at the link Tim gave in the article — the version posted on the University of Pennsylvania's Web site rather than the NBER's — omits those two sentences.

Kepler
Facepalm

Re: So after demostrating macro-economists are not good at economic modelling

If they were truly good economists, they wouldn't be doing macro.* And they certainly wouldn't be doing stuff like this.

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* Most of modern macro runs afoul of the basic principles of economics — i.e., micro. The people who understand those principles best and most fully avoid macro 'cause they know it's hokum.

Kepler
Headmaster

Re: This was peer assessed?

Actually, it was not. As the actual NBER version* of the paper says:

"NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications."

And mistakes of the sort you noticed pervade the paper. Nearly every sentence in their summary of results is false, due to errors of English usage,** number transcription, or even math.

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* Tim linked to the version on the U. Penn. Web site — now dated July 26 (Tim's article was posted July 16!) — not the June "working paper" on the NBER Web site. (It just says "June" — no date.) Despite its description in the article, the version Tim linked to is not identified with the NBER in any way (although one of its two co-authors is). Nor does it contain the highly pertinent two-sentence disclaimer that the version on the NBER's Web site has.

The earlier, NBER version of the paper can be found here:

http://www.nber.org/papers/w20263.pdf

It contains numerous mistakes, only some of which were corrected in the later version. For instance, compare the statement that "Matlab is only 1.24 . . . times slower" to the values shown in the Table 1. Matlab running under Windows, using Mex files, takes 29 percent longer to execute (1.29 times as long), not 24 percent.

(And in this instance the number calculated in the table is correct.

Unless of course they made transcription errors like this in recording their data as well as in copying it from the table. All of the errors I saw in the earlier version that were corrected in the later version were transcription errors like this one — discrepancies between the number shown in Table 1 and the value reported in the summary.)

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** The authors not only confuse speed with execution time, but routinely and repeatedly confuse, e.g., "X times as slow as" (or, more properly — though they never get this right — "X times as long as") with "X times slower than". Even if we concede that, e.g., being half as fast and therefore taking twice as long is/are equivalent to being twice as slow, that's 100% or 1 time slower, not 200% or two times slower. They seem to get that 1.05 and 1.07 are 5 and 7 percent greater than 1 (though even there, they make the mistake of thinking that that means that 1 is 7 percent less, or faster, than 1.07, which of course it is not), not 1.05 (105%) or 1.07 (107%) times greater than 1, but they turn around and say (for example) that 2.64 and 2.70 are 2.64 or 2.70 times greater than 1. (They are 2.64 and 2.70 times as great as 1, respectively, but only 1.64 and 1.70 times greater than 1.)

Like the icon's label says, Pedantic grammar nazi alert!

But seriously, this is a case where what they say means something different from what they intend. And we can tell that they meant something different from what they said by looking at the numbers in the table. Only when we get to Python, R and Mathematica does the difference between what they said and what they meant become insignificant, because the execution times are so much longer than those for C++ anway.

And they make math errors, too.

Kepler
Go

Re: crazed models of how macroeconomists think the real world works

(1) Great link! I never heard of MONIAC before. And what a wonderful, parody name!

(Wikipedia speculates that "MONIAC" may have been a variation on the name "ENIAC" — a cross between "ENIAC" and the word "money". May have been? May??? How can there be any doubt?)

(2) Talk about "hydraulic Keynesianism"!

I thought it was just a figure of speech, and a metaphor, An apt term to describe how the Keynesian model works, or at least how many believers in Keynesianism conceive and understand the model. I had no idea anyone ever actually built a working, physical model!

(The term survives today mainly among critics of Keynesianism, as a pejorative, but it was originally used as a purely descriptive term, even by proponents. And it remains an accurate description of how the Keynesian model works.

Or at least of how the algebraic models taught in Lord Keynes's name work. Different writers construe Keynes in different ways, and there are passages in his General Theory to support each view. Including the hydraulic one.)

Kepler
Gimp

APL

Wasn't Bill Gates a bit peeved with Rod Brock at one point for getting Paul Allen interested in APL, which Gates thought was a distraction for Allen and a waste of his time?

(If it wasn't Rod Brock, then it must have been Tim Paterson, but I'm pretty sure it was Brock. Whichever one of them was friends with Allen before Microsoft licensed, and later bought, QDOS from Seattle Computer Products.)

Kepler
Childcatcher

What do physicists use?

"In a former life I worked with physicists who used mostly MatLab . . . ."

My brother-in-law is a physicist, and he still uses Fortran when he needs to crunch numbers. (Don't know which version.)

Kepler
Pint

"Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWdd6_ZxX8c

The Dude abides!

I don't know about you, but I take comfort in that.

Kepler
Paris Hilton

Re: Re Tom 38

"Or we could just use Debian ;-)

A Linux newsgroup thread I encountered some 10 or 15 years ago was entitled "Debian Does Dallas."

Kepler
Paris Hilton

Our Methodologically Obtuse NBER

The NBER put out a paper that was a piece of shit? Good Heavens! Say it isn't so!

(Next thing you'll tell me is that Martin Feldstein is a vastly overrated economist.)

Kill queues for fast data centres: MIT boffins

Kepler
Paris Hilton

Also kind-of like Token Ring, no?

It does sound like CSD, TDMA, SDN and OpenFlow, and also a bit like Token Ring — an attempt to get the timing-coordination benefits of Token Ring under Ethernet, with a different logical and physical topology, and without the use of any token or talking stick to determine whose turn to talk it is.

Except that Fastpass addresses both the timing and the route to be taken by the packets, whereas each of these other technologies addresses one but not the other. (If I understand them correctly, TDMA and Token Ring each address timing and the assignment of turns, while OpenFlow and other forms of SDN address the route to be taken by packets. CSD just facilitates, and is sort-of an adjunct to, TDMA.) Oh, and that Fastpass may perhaps be more flexible and circumstances-adaptive than the others.

Is that about right?

Satya Nadella: Microsoft's new man presses all the old buttons in LONG memo

Kepler
Coat

Re: Invent this

I see now that, according to Wikipedia, Sinofsky was responsible for Office 2007 and the accursed ribbon as well. Who knew?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Sinofsky

I'll never forgive either him or Ballmer for the decision not to leave menus in as an option. Or for Metro.

Kepler
Facepalm

Re: Invent this

"Put XP on it and Office 2003

Hey presto - Productivity and Empowerment for all"

Indeed. Ballmer will be remembered as the man who ruined Office, and — with help from Sinofsky — ruined Windows as well. He was ultimately responsible for both interface-change disasters (ribbon, Metro/Modern), and for the huge Vista disaster before Sinofsky ever arrived in Redmond.

Kepler
Boffin

"Bill Gates had no vision . . ."

"Bill Gates had no vision, neither did Ballmer. But Gates was at least a geek."

With respect, I disagree. In part.

You are quite right about Ballmer being a visionless bundle of fluff and bluster, AC, but Gates had — and doubtless still has — vision. His vision is far from flawless, to be sure — just look at how late he was to appreciate the significance of the Internet for Microsoft's business — but he usually appreciated the Big Picture just as much as he had an amazing head for technical details.*

Gates — with Allen — was quick to see the potential for personal computers, before the Altair. He likewise was quick to see (for better or worse) the potential for commercial software.** And he was just as quick as Jobs to see that mice and bit-mapped GUIs were the future. Just read the accounts of his first meeting with Charles Simonyi, and his first visit to Xerox PARC as Simonyi's guest — before Steve Jobs ever breathed a word to him about the Macintosh or even the Lisa. His earliest interactions with Nathan Myhrvold likewise testify to his being a vision guy.

(Whether he surpassed Paul Allen in these regards, I've no idea. But they were both really solid and sharp tech guys.)

Ballmer, on the other hand, was not. I'm convinced that Ballmer isn't stupid,*** but he just doesn't get things. Even Nadella is better in this regard (though hardly a rival of Gates). Ballmer seems to be just an archetypal B-school product.

And even people who might disagree with me about Gates must agree that he was nowhere near as visionless as Ballmer (as the statement "Bill Gates had no vision, neither did Ballmer" more or less implies). Surely he had/has some vision, whereas Ballmer has none at all.

(I think Gates had/has quite a lot. But the question always arises, compared to what/whom?)

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* He also could code. Seriously well.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2001/05/15/could_bill_gates_write_code/

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** Gates did not initially appreciate the utility of spreadsheet programs, because all he could think when he was first shown one was how easy it would be for him personally to do the same thing in BASIC. But he quickly realized his mistake and got behind what became Multiplan.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiplan

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*** Convinced by a single datum: that as an undergraduate at Harvard, he got the second-highest grade in a graduate microeconomics or mathematical economics course (I forget which, but the syllabi of the two courses typically overlap). This means he has to be smart enough to do multivariable calculus, with Lagrangian multipliers; invert matrices; and do linear programming with the simplex algorithm. (There might also have been some game theory.) And he did these things better than any of the graduate students in the class! (At least on the final exam.) The only student in the class who got a higher grade was Gates (with whom he crammed for the final), who of course was also but an undergrad. (And soon to be a drop-out.)

Kepler
Unhappy

Re: Translations.

A good link, keithpeter, and an excellent analysis and dissection (skewering?) of Nadella's memo by Jean-Louis Gassée. In the politest words and manner possible, Gassée rips Nadella a new one.

But I think Gassée gives Nadella undeserved credit when he suggests that Nadella was really just speaking — deliberately — in code. (That Nadella was doing so deliberately is clearly implied.) Nadella was not deliberately wrapping his true message in words cleverly and carefully chosen to conceal his true meaning from all but the discerning few, in the manner posited by the political philosopher Leo Strauss.* He was not trying to protect himself from persecution (à la a handful of great minds throughout history, according to Strauss's controversial theory), and neither was he trying to protect the feelings of his employees or soften the blow to those whose heads are about to roll. He wrote the way he did and used the convoluted, euphemistic words he did because this is how he thinks!**

And that is the most troubling thing of all about this memo, and about everything else I have ever seen that Nadella has said or written.

Especially when, upon further reflection, one realizes that speaking in jargon that way to Steve Ballmer is a big part of how Nadella landed his current position in the first place, and that anyone else who wants to advance within Microsoft will now have to speak the same meaningless, 100% buzzword-compliant language. Nadella's not going to change this broken corporate culture. He embodies it. He lives it and breathes it. He's the problem incarnate, not the solution.

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* I refer to Strauss's 1941 essay and 1952 book, Persecution and the Art of Writing:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persecution_and_the_Art_of_Writing

http://thenewschoolhistory.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/strauss_persecutionartwriting.pdf

http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/strauss-leo/

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** Nadella may have a high IQ, as Gassée contends, but he is clearly a shallow man. IQ and depth are not the same thing (any more than depth and wit or depth and cleverness); one can have one without the other.

Nadella also clearly lacks a bullshit detector. For if an inner alarm does not go off when he writes crap like this himself, it will not go off when he encounters such meaningless drivel coming from others, either.

Kepler
Headmaster

Re: "We will re-invent productivity to empower . . ."

His slogans remind me of Ford Motor Company's ridiculous and meaningless claim that "We own work."

Or the time I sat through an after-dinner speech by the late Jack Kemp* (at one time more or less a hero of mine) and counted how many times he used the words "empower" and "empowerment." I believe it was well over 20.

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* Former U.S. Representative from Buffalo, New York, and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development under the first President Bush. (I forget whether he was still HUD Secretary when he gave the after-dinner speech in question. It was sometime in 1991, '92 or '93.) Also the Republican nominee for Vice President in 1996.

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