Re: Hoping Musk's rocket goes kaboom
You realise that there are 15,000 engineers that are actually doing the work ? They deserve failure as well ?
677 publicly visible posts • joined 15 Aug 2013
In a timely manner, NASA internal review of SpaceX and Blue Origin lander contracts. Aside from keeping on budget, the remainder is a damming report on NASA management for basically being railroaded by contractors for unsafe designs, risky technology, poor planning, lack of testing in the contracts, no rescue provisioning, NASA insisting on manual controls which SpaceX haven't included and development of both landers running late.
Mentions that SX were fined $1.5m for failing to meet milestones and date for Artemis 5 (BO landing) will slip past 2028.
NASA’s Management of the Human Landing System Contracts - NASA OIG https://share.google/rD0NgEXaoctSPOwyJ
NASA releases update on SpaceX and Blue Origin lander systems, this is after their behind closed door visits and reviews,
About the only positive is that fixed price contract is working and budget is under control. And that is the end of the good news, conflicts about manual controls, complexity, both landers are behind schedule, lots of unproven tech, HLS will need minimum 10 refuelling mission, blue origin will need multiple refuelling, neither has tested technology, there is more but suffice to say that my money is now on Chinese as their mission is much less ambitious (basically Apollo) and currently further behind.
https://oig.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/final-report-ig-26-004-nasas-management-of-the-human-landing-system-contracts.pdf
https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/03/nasa-and-spacex-disagree-about-manual-controls-for-lunar-lander/
Blue Moon Mk1 is sometime in 2026 but still no scheduled date, I believe the lander is currently undergoing vacuum testing. Aiming for around 3ton cargo compared to Apollo'w 1 ton.
Blue Moon Mk2 which is human lander has no date and no confirmation that construction has even started. Its a multi vehicle mission involving multiple in space refuelling and use of an uprated New Glenn 9x4 configuration (9 engines on 1st stage, 4 on second with 8.7m fairing, 70 ton payload)
There is rumours of a Mk 1.5, based on Mk 1 but with human rating, single launch mission that can do a limited mission without refuelling. Its has more capability that Apollo but still basically limited to footprints and flag type mission. I assume this is what they are planning to use for Artemis III. Is it an accurate representation of Mk2, who knows.
You've been banging on for a while about all the things that SX can't do and yet they most of the time they have managed. For somebody who works in the space industry you don't seem to be keeping up with development, maybe you are working or starliner or something ?
As for Artemis, fortunately NASA are aiming for something more than footstep and flag which means having more than 1,000 cargo capacity that Apollo had.
We don't know how many refuelling mission there will be, Elon said it could be as low as 4 with a block 4 starship meaning around 1,000 propellant will be required.
Yes, the refuelling missions will be recovered (booster and ship), nothing to indicate otherwise.
Not every refuelling mission has to work, you think there won't be some redundancy. Need 10 launches then plan for 12.
Do agree that 2028 is optimistic but its still doable assuming Artemis II goes well.
He has been asked this and the answer was that he has been approached NASA since he did.
The issue is that there isn't a suitable option, if you want to do a human mission and assuming that NASA won't let you use Russian or Chinese capsule, that leaves one choice and it isn't capable of the mission without major changes. Alternative is a build a specialised robotic satellite and that is going to take some time.
Regardless the mission is likely to cost in excess of $100m so aside from Jarred, Elon or Jeff, I don't know who has deep enough pockets to throw away that amount and the passion to do it ?
The problem is the energy required to get to lagrange point is more than just dumping used satellites back to earth unless you are willing to pay them for the scape. In which case I am sure there are probably some rag and bone guys who will do it cheaper with their unregistered business.
The largest ION engine produced uses approximately 100 Kw of power. This is good as ISS generates around 100Wk of PV power. Your problem is that 100Kw ION engine generates about 5 newtons of trusts. ISS needs around 6,500 newtons of thrust to do a controlled deorbit.
Its orbital mechanics, something NASA knows something about. They 100% will know how much energy it takes to boost to various orbits and the structural integrity of the station. Most of that work will have been re-done recently when they used Cygnus and Dragon to do boost burns plus they will have provided de-orbiting specs.
In fact 2 secs on Google tells you for a 100 year orbit is going to take 120 to 140 m/s of delta or 740m/s for a much longer lasting one. Assuming the station isn't going to fall apart applying that much delta V.
You can be see de-orbit will take 57 m/s which is what dragon will supply using approx. 9 to 11 tons of propellant.
https://www.nasa.gov/faqs-the-international-space-station-transition-plan/#:~:text=Ignoring%20the%20requirement%20of%20keeping,s%20for%20a%20controlled%20deorbit.
There are many observers now asking if Boeing are even going to both with Starliner, there are a limited number of remaining flights to ISS and Dragon has sewn up what commercial market there is. And remember this is fixed price contract so any fixes are coming out of Boeing's pocket with some estimates putting that at $2bn and rising. At least ISS maintenance is a cash cow for Boeing for the time being but will end in a few years.
Bandwidth is the best metric, ultimately its is what is needed to satisfy your customers. The key is start filling the shells where there are the most customers and where you are bandwidth constrained. You leave the existing 12,000 satellites to provide global coverage. In fact they already have global coverage with the 10,000 sats they will have by March, so coverage isn't an issue
As for replacements, Assume 5 year lifespan, that is 50 a month they need to keep launching, or one Starship launch. SpaceX would like to get around 30,000 v3 sats including direct to cell, we'll see about that.
Cost of F9 launch for Starlink is around $50m, cost of Starship is thought to be closer to $20m once they have regular cadence.
In case anybody is still following, SpaceX concluded that relight failure was most likely causes by an air bubble in transfer tube. Ironically most likely because of new propellant loading procedure designed to improve reliability. I guess they now know its not giving more reliability, lol Anyway nice to see they are still trying to improve F9.
With manned Soyuz out of commission and Starliner slightly behind on certification that leaves no method of launching crew to ISS currently.
On a side note, SpaceX yesterday removed the crew access arm from F9 pad at 39A. That leaves SLIC-40 as the only human capable pad in the US. They have stopped launching from 39A to focus on Starship but at least it had been there as a backup.
1. Panels may have the same efficiency but you get around 220W per m2 on earth but 1,350 per m2 in space.
2. We will have to see, there are companies claiming to have cracked this but obviously nobody has demo'ed this at scale.
4. That I have less worry about. Its crazy how actually they can track satellites so accurately these days, laser links already between satellites that are moving at 10,000 mph relative to each other. Of course you do have the added complications of having to deal with earth's atmosphere but I'm sure its something they are working on.
The issue is that the school is locked out of their admin systems, very little to do with the classroom itself. Overlay trying to keep safeguarding in place, organising classes, timetables and students, there is no paper fall back for some of these process. And who knows how much of the building control got knocked out.
That is for around 1,500 students and probably several hundred staff.
They have approved budget for a new MSR proposal. To be honest, the current proposal had got out of hand. It was way too complicated, running late and over budget.
Rook has said several times that he thinks NASA is overstaffed with paper pushers and has too many centres of operations so was looking at making better use of the budget but don't know how long it will take to make changes. He's currently touring the various facilities.
"but you do pay less than if you insist on a brand new one"
You actually pay more. SpaceX are still producing boosters but at a much reduced rate, Wiki suggest 8 boosters had their first flight in 2025. I was surprised to learn they only have around 20 to 25 active boosters to support around 170 F9 launches a year.