Core uncertainty.
To me, the core probablem is that we can do some cool stuff with AI, but we’re not yet to the point where we can just grind or death-march or brute-force compute our way to generally useful, reliable AI.
There are still fundamental breakthroughs needed on the software architecture side and on the hardware side. There are some cool concepts being developed in the hardware space. There might be similar things happening on the software side, but people are less chatty about the nuts and bolts of the bleeding edge there.
Right now, AI is a concept that will revolutionize the world, eventually,
Just like great battery tech (maybe cracked by Donut, time will tell), practical fusion energy, etc. The last 5% to 10% of the work takes 99+% of the time.
You can never predict when fundemental breakthroughs will happen. Took decades for blue LEDs. Lots of money came and went, and it turned out that the one guy who refused to give up eventually got it after spending a significant portion of his life chasing it. That guy should never be allowed to buy his own meals and drinks.
But AI is the same. I'm sure it will happen. Maybe next week. Maybe in 50 years. Nobody really knows.
But they're going to sell it to us / force it down our throats as best they can anyway.