Hmm...maybe
I think there might be some underestimations here. Yes the loss of Apple and slow downs in the PC markets will take their tolls but NFC and LTE are two technologies that have not been fully realized. The iPhone 5, for example, is the first iPhone with LTE and the Nexus 4 does not have it (leaving room for it on the 5). I think with upgrade cycles, the more affluent global smartphone market will still be moving into new devices with both NFC and LTE. I know I am now at the end of my 2 year contract (U.S.) and am somewhat holding out for the SGS IV. Even if I don't end up with an SGS IV, Sammy is very likely to get my money on the III. That will still move me from a single core, HSPA+ phone to a dual-core, LTE handset.
I think there is still growth to be had in the mobile market. I know plenty of people still using feature phones or very old touch screen devices. Actually, one of the largest barriers in the U.S. is not the phones but the cost of service. Here's hoping the fight between the big four (VZW, ATT, Sprint & TMob) heats up.