both could be / probably are true
panspermia doesnt rule out the possibility that life evolved here anyway without help from panspermia - and vice-versa - life could have been seeded here by panspermia but that doesnt rule out the possibility that life can evolve elsewhere without it.
theres also an intersection of the two, where life wouldnt have evolved somewhere unless helped by panspermia, and the flip side of that too, where the panspemia additions wouldnt have made any difference without the local planets attributes.
they arent mutually exclusive and dont need to be. in fact, they both lend support to each other.
also, life is only "as we know it" - there may be other forms of chemical structrures that can evolve to the level of self-questioning intelligence.
there could also be intelligences out there that were made by precursor intelligences too.
life may have happened once and spread.
life may have happened multiple times, and some of them spread.
life may have only happened once.
maybe theres another kind of life out there that wouldnt recognise us as "life" and believe that they are the only ones.
personally, given that we are not remarkable as a place in space time, and given the time and space available for it to happen, for me the the chances of us being the only ones are close to zero.
the problem with the religious argument is that its pointless. "god did it" is the bottom of the turtle pile for every single question you ever ask. that to me is completely pointless and unsatisfying. its a nice comfort blanket for a lot of people though, so that they dont have to think too hard about stuff.