You Can Smell The Fear...
The TLDR: Palantir are saying that "everyone hates frontier AI labs" - because they have just realised that any of the existing AI models easily have the "intelligence" to render their products obsolete. Why pay Palantir a small fortune for their technology when you can just feed the same raw data sources to an AI model and have it deliver the same or better results for you? As part of a range of other duties, instead of being a purpose-built, very expensive product?
Right now, anyone paying Palantir for licenses who is *not* evaluating replacing Palantir tech with e.g. Claude or OpenAI is not just missing a trick, they are missing one of those handful of "golden" use cases where existing AI models can absolutely trounce existing solutions.
Palantir must be defecating building materials, to borrow the phrase.
To anyone not familiar with Palantir outside of their recent attempts to win business from the UK government, a little bit of context will probably explain exactly where this utter BS is coming from...
For the last 23 years, Palantir has been the market leader in "corporate counter-espionage" - and I'm being extremely generous with that description. Palantir have developed a suite of technologies that enable large companies to monitor their employees with *shocking* accuracy. Let me give you an outline of the sort of things Palantir can do - then tell you how they do it...
- Palantir tech can identify people about to leave a company, before they hand in their notice, with shocking [better than 95% accuracy]...
- It can identify people having affairs - not unusual in this day and age - but remember that many companies expressly prohibit relationships between managers and subordinates because of the risk of that relationship distorting performance appraisals...
- Palantir can identify data thieves, corporate epionage...
- Palantir can spot people working 2 jobs - particularly among remote workers...
The way Palantir works is to collect data from lots of key sources and then intelligently aggregate it. For example, some of the data elements that it can capture and monitor for variations includes:-
- The times of day and days of week that you "badge in" and "badge out" of secure areas and buildings, including odd variations...
- The times of day and days of week that you log in remotely - and from where...
- Your use of every ID-operated fax machine and photocopier [and if your company uses a modern MFD with an integral hard drive - the pages you copy can be retrieved and analysed].
- The in-house applications that you use - and the times you access them...
- The amount of data flowing between your workstation and corporate tech - dates, times and volumes...
- Your use of the internet, including sites visited, times spent active...
- Your use of email...
- Your physical location, if you are stupid enough to keep a company cell phone with you...
- Your physical location, if you have a personal phone with a company "MDM" package installed on it (For your "convenience")...
Palantir has spent the last 23 year developing and fine tuning their technology to harvest all that data from all those sources and then, like Cambridge Analytica and Facebook data (but with a much smaller number of target users and much, much richer data), to build a detailed profile of you the corporate employee.
Start turning up for work earlier? Palantir will know.
Start accessing applications at odd times? Palantir will be watching.
Downloading data from a Sales contact database? Palantir knows all.
Stupid enough to think you can defeat the DLP system by printing the downloads to paper and walking it out the door? Good luck with that...
The "Secret Sauce" for Palantir's brand, then, is the intelligence. It's the ability to sift through all these different data sources and "make sense" of lots of data points that really aren't easily connected in the real world. It's more of a six-sigma approach to corporate counter-intelligence than necessarily getting concrete evidence [though, because they have all the data, getting the evidence may not be too hard].
So how does all this fit with Palantir saying that everyone hates frontier AI labs?
Because what Palantir does is analyze vast amounts of data and look for patterns. It applies their proprietary algorithms to search for deviations in behaviors. The sort of thing that an AI is exceptionally good at doing. Palantir have been a commercial success because they cracked the blueprint for developing this horizontal cross-section view of an organization's data flows and users that enabled them to spot someone behaving in an uncharacteristic way. AI is going to be able to do that *so much* more effectively - and likely for a much lower cost.
So this latest spiel from their head honcho sounds to me a lot like the CEO of Eastman Kodak when they suddenly realized what the digital camera revolution would mean...
If you think about it - their response makes a lot of sense. If your business was about to be wiped out by AI, then maybe your best line of defense is to suggest that your product is what companies need to provide them with the interface to different AI providers... So he's basically trying to morph his company in to being an irreplaceable bolt-on to the technology that is about to flatten his entire business model.
A nice trick if he could pull it off.
If I were a betting person - I'm not - I think my view would be: "Toast!"
Good riddance.