* Posts by geomort

1 publicly visible post • joined 24 Apr 2012

Gaia scientist Lovelock: 'I was wrong and alarmist on climate'

geomort

Easy does it!

Oh man... this is going to be jumped on all over by the likes of the Heartland Institute. Just to clarify Lovelock hasn't said global warming isn't dangerous.

The modest global temperature increase of 0.8 - 1 degree is [actually] very significant. Even small annual variations in sea surface temperatures of 0.5 of a degree can cause rains to fail and terrible draught (as has happened in Brazil this year). A 1 degree warming is also a global average and doesn't show what is happening regionally (for example a 6 degree warming in polar regions, with almost no warming on the equate and some areas getting cooler). Yes the Earth is warming on AVERAGE but not everywhere. The negative consequences arise from the fact that we are ill adapted to survive in the resulting environments.

Yes, Lovelock was alarmist but simply because he, like many others, underestimated the complex buffering systems the Earth possesses (e.g. negative feedbacks). We may never have a complete picture of the Earth system dynamics. But with a rate of warming unseen in the last 55 millions years, who can have blamed him. And surely is better to be safe than sorry when it comes to the lives of 7 billion people.