Peak oil is the wrong thing to watch for
People always seem to think peak oil is warning about us "running out". I've always thought a better way to express what peak oil is really warning about is: "the end of Easy oil". We will never totally run out of oil, but the days of burning it off because it's bubbling out of the ground are long gone. As we have to go to greater lengths just to get what's left (or free what's trapped), the cost keeps increasing. We are rapidly approaching a time when many people simply can't afford to burn oil casually.
That economic crunch when people have to adjust their lives because of the sky high cost of oil is what "peak oil" has always been warning about. And from where I'm sitting, that prediction has proven remarkably accurate.