Why would "The Government" know more than the NG?
And, obviously, your answer would be "And why would the NG know more than the government".
No, actually. My answer would be: Because it's the government who collects the information to set policy. If it doesn't know at least as much as the NG, then it has no business legislating on things which require NG co-operation.
I would (naturally, because it substantiates my point) tend to believe the people who run the thing more than "The Government", whoever they are... :D
Understandable, but if you look at the report I referenced it is far more detailed than the flyer from the NG which can't even get the terminology correct. NG is a private company whose main aim is to make money, and for obvious reasons is not going to say anything which would suggest it isn't all set for any future demands.
Also, you assume the generating capacity will remain static
No, not at all, although it would be better if it weren't falling as it has over the past year. The problem is that to increase capacity in a useful way (i.e. not by simply throwing gas turbines at the problem) takes years of planning. To meet an "all new cars much be EVs" directive by 2030, NG should have had it's plans for new capacity ready & approved by government back in 2010 if not before, with construction well under way by now. Does it? We're talking of HS2-level construction, with 20+ year lead times.
Ideally nuclear generating capacity, IMHO, but sadly I suspect I'm more likely to win the lottery two weeks running than THAT happening...
Yeah, me too, and I don't even play the lottery... :-)