Collapsing reality
I'm willing to be wrong, but my understanding of the (uncle?) Monty problem is that he opens all the bad doors.
Therefore, to exaggerate for effect, you buy one lottery ticket and just before you see the winning numbers, but after Monty has seen them, he gives you the choice of keeping your ticket or a ticket he hands you - one of them is the winning ticket.
I think under those conditions you can see it makes a LOT of sense to switch.
However, if the conditions were different and you were presented with two tickets and told that one was the winning ticket, then, yes the odds of picking the right ticket is 50-50 (50% dice comment above?)
Well, that's my understanding of the frame of the question - I don't know if Monty always opened a bad door or if he would open all of the bad doors in an exaggerated example.
Biting the hand that feeds IT
