Who's the winner?
Well, let's see, that would be guaranteed cash from M$ to Nokia of $1Bn over 5 years, Nokia *might* get to claw back smartphone market share and therefore get new sales revenues on their hardware plus they *might* get some ad revenues versus about 25% loss on share value at about $6Bn, plus loss of the sunk-cost of R&D and net present value in Symbian, MeeGo & other software, maybe $65Bn according to estimates floating around various blogs.
On the other hand, MS get guaranteed licensing for every Nokia smartphone WP7 OS sold, access to a huge patent portfolio, access to a good mapping/geolocation application and some other pretty good mobile software, no hardware development costs, a smallish share value increase worth maybe $1Bn and maybe future ad revenue, versus said $1Bn to Nokia over 5 years.
Seems to me to be a pretty damn good deal. For Microsoft. And maybe for Elop depending on how much he got paid...