Re: Good news or bad news?
Read the book "Preventing the unthinkable" by James Martin.
Its not some namby pamby pacifist script.
Its full of physics and strategy; probably written for senior civil servants and intended
military staff of rank colonel and above.
A large scale nuclear war is quite complicated. One major physics factor in nuclear war is
most of the initial energy from a nuclear explosion is X-rays. In air these form a large fireball in the sky. In space they fly unimpeded.
Ballistic missiles (those flying in space) are very vulnerable to x-rays from space detonated
atomic weapons i.e. if you keep dropping H bombs above the country you are attacking all the missiles they launch are destroyed in flight. This has a technical term called "X-ray" lock down.
But it does not take care of cruise missiles effectively hiding from the x-rays by being in earths atmosphere.
So thats why anti ballistic missile shields (ABM) can be viewed as first strike weapons. They kind of enable a first strike as well as protecting from the odd stray north Korean missile.
Also Putin, because of ABMs, has simply increased the number of cruise and stealth nuclear delivery systems. my pennies worth. But anyone really interested should read the James Martin book