Buckle up, this is a long one!
“No. I don't agree, sorry. Though for the record, I upvoted you because at least you were polite.”
It’s fine to disagree. The world would be a dull place if we all agreed on everything.
“I’ll see your Aleksandr Dugin's 1997 book 'Foundations of Geopolitics' and raise you Zbigniew Brzezinski's 'The Grand Chessboard' (1997). “
I’ve not read the book, but it is on my list, so I’m not sure I can fully respond to this fairly. I have however read many discussions and reviews of the ideas in the book (which is why it’s on my list to read), so I can perhaps talk about my understanding of it (with the caveat that I’m talking about the ideas in the book from the perspective of what I thought about what other people thought about them).
From my understanding, Brzezinski himself has said the book is very much about the US geo-strategy of the last decade of the 20th century. Obviously, what happened in the 90s has an impact today (as I said with the perceived embarrassment about the fall of the USSR in the Russian psyche) and some policies may still carry over, but how many of the strategies in the book are still current policy is open to debate. Dugin's work was very much a roadmap for the future, one that can be seen to be have been followed pretty closely up to now. He is also still active in Putin's ear and is cited as Putin's favourite 'thinker'.
Obama for example had his famous ‘reset’ of US relations with Russia in 2010. This involved the scrapping of plans to build military bases in Eastern Europe and the reduction of deployed warheads with the new START treaty. The US even helped speed along Russia’s WTO accession. They had agreements and discussions on everything from culture, education, sports, dealing with the financial crisis, ‘universal values’ (whatever they are) and much more. It really seemed to be an attempt to find common ground across all areas. Obviously you can claim this was all a ruse, but most of what I have read doesn’t think it was and see it as a genuine attempt to put old differences behind them.
Some in the intelligence community cite this reset, and later the lack of any real action against 2014’s annexation of Crimea, as the reason for Putin’s renewed confidence on the world stage.
It is also evident that the US has pulled back from its many international adventures during the 90s, and is now far more insular. It’s hard to argue that the US of today is as globally adventurous as the US of the 90s.
Moving outside of the US, Europe also had a reset of relations with Russia, with a policy of trying to bring Russia into the European community. This was strongly pushed by Angela Merkel and Germany as a whole, with many now thinking she was taken for a fool by Putin.
Obviously the book cannot be dismissed (the guy was an advisor to US government in the 80s after all) and I’m sure that the content has relevance today, but I’m not sure you can cut and paste the US policy of the 90s over the 2010s onward.
Perhaps my biggest criticism, and from what I understand is one of the main criticisms levelled at the book, is that it’s from a very one sided, US centric view. This is exactly what I see from everyone who says that everything in the world is the fault of the West, they don’t allow for the autonomy of any other country.
You back up my view when you say:
“The Ukrainians are nothing more than pawns on the chessboard, same as the Iraqis, the Afghans, the Syrians, and the Libyans.”
Ukraine is a nation state that has autonomy and its own ideas and wants. Diminishing a country of 40 million people down to a pawn in a US political game is insulting. I would think the fact that the Ukrainian people have multiple times risen up against their Government shows that they are not merely pawns. Even all the way back in 1990 with the Revolution on Granite, the Ukrainian people have been showing their autonomy and a strong will to be in control of their own destiny. Just because that desire looks West does not mean it’s all a CIA plot.
“I’ve also heard Putin talk of Peter the Great and reclaiming Russian lands, but only in the context of Crimea, the gifting of which to Ukraine by Brezhnev in 1954 was controversial (from the Russian standpoint).”
Putin has talked about reclaiming Russian lands multiple times, most recently that I have heard in 2022. He again likened himself to Peter the Great and discussed how Peter had retaken lands from Sweden. He was justifying the war in Ukraine in general and a wider desire to reclaim Slavic lands for Russia, not only Crimea.
“Sending countless thousands of Russian male conscripts to their death over such an old issue is political suicide. No, I think his actions are solely pragmatic, based on current geopolitical events as he sees them.”
I agree some of the reasons are pragmatic, I never said these were the only reasons, I was simply pushing back against your claim that the war only started because of NATO expansion.
Crimea for example was largely about access to the deep water port in Sevastopol, the lease of which was up for renewal. However, Putin soon found out that supplying Crimea with essentials like food, water and power was very costly and not at all easy, even with the new Kerch Bridge. This is one reason why a land bridge between Russia and Crimea is so important now. The reason Brezhnev gifted Crimea to Ukraine wasn’t just from the kindness of his heart. It was also because of the cold, hard realities of maintaining infrastructure in, and supplying essentials to a separate enclave. Ukraine is attached to Crimea, so it’s far more cost effective to run power, water and supply lines from Ukraine. As you say, this wasn’t much of an issue when the USSR still existed.
As for the thousands of conscripts, this is currently a major issue for Putin. He desperately needs to mobilise more manpower, however politically he cannot for the reasons you state. Politically he also cannot withdrawal from Ukraine as it would be the end of his rein. He (and his advisors) believed Ukraine would fail within three days and Ukrainians would welcome Russia with open arms. He believed his own hype about ‘one Slavic people’ and now has a mess that is all of his own making.
I don’t know where you are from. Are you Russian or from another Slavic nation, or are you from a Western country? Just to explain my interest in this, I am a British / Irish national, married to a Russian woman. She lived in Ukraine in her early life and has relations who are Ukrainian and live in Eastern Ukraine. I have spent a lot of time in Russia and, as I married into a Slavic family, I felt I should understand the history of the region and the culture. I have spoken extensively to both Russians and Ukrainians in my extended family and have probably annoyed them all by asking many questions about how things were and are for them. My wife still has family and friends in Russia, so we are keeping up to speed with how things are there now.
My Wife reads much of the current thinking on Putin from Russian political figures (mostly those exiled for wrong think) and the general consensus is that there is a strong ideological and legacy building element to Putin’s current actions.