Re: Market +30% = wages -30%
I can't personally see WFH being much different to what it was previously, but that's because i'm an IT Manager and can see things that a lot of other people can't.
I would go so far as to say that the existing WFH arrangements may well have grievously damaged the entire concept of working from home for a generation in many environments.
In our offices, the staff have 2-4 monitors, a decent PC wired to a gigabit network with a hundred meg fibre line internet connection, and other support equipment such as high(ish) spec printers, MFD's that do scanning at several dozen pages a minute, desks ergonomically set to make their lives easier, phones with headsets etc etc etc.
At home, a lot of people are hunched over a dining table with a single laptop screen, using a dining room chair over wireless, with a mobile phone app for a phone system, with the kids screaming in the background and no other support equipment. In this environment, if you only lose 50% productivity then your probably doing well.
Now personally, I don't have kids and my home equipment is better than what I have in the office and is ergonomically setup. Would you like to guess what sort of a percentage of workers have setups equivalent or better than their work setups at home? I'd say maybe 20%. Of course, out of people that visit this site it's probably approaching 100%, but we aren't typical of the normal users. If you think that it's 20% then that would mean that up to 80% of people don't share our personal experiences with home working.
The number of people I have talked to who have started getting headaches (which is eyestrain due to bad PC positioning relative to light sources, especially serious with home equipment with glossy screens if that's used instead of the kit we've provided) or muscle pain as a result of bad posture is startling. Now all of these issues could easily have been dealt with and wouldn't normally have happened when doing a proper home working rollout. But as a result of the somewhat rushed transition to working from home people more or less had the equipment thrown at them with adequate instructions and a best wishes card and of course we can't show people how to setup their home environment properly beyond phoning or emailing because we can't visit in person.
Now, normally all of those issues would have been picked up and dealt with. In these circumstances, not so much. I suspect that the true situation is that if your fairly well off then working from home has probably been enjoyable. Otherwise, I doubt it.
Many of our staff working from home have taken a good 50% performance hit. Many haven't of course, but the problems are way more nuanced than some people are willing to talk about, and the top 20% of the population by income telling everybody "yeah your working from home forever now" is not likely to receive a universal welcome or perhaps go as well as I some people appear to be expecting.
For every company that decides to scrap it's office, i'm fairly sure that there will be at least another company that decides that home working is highly undesirable. And both firms will likely be correct.