Re: Masks and the Flu
Also, kids on holiday are far more likely to mix with strangers (i.e. kids their own age) than adults.
74 publicly visible posts • joined 18 Jan 2010
Science is 100% about consensus. It's about you being right and everybody else being wrong. About having the only theory that explains all the experimental data. It's about everybody else slowly discarding their pet theories and accepting the one you thought of. It's about challenging the current consensus with a new idea, such as Barry Marshall showing the connection between Helicobacter pylori and stomach ulcers. to become the newer, better consensus.
In religion, art, politics and sport and all other forms of human endeavour you will not find consensus. Science is the one activity we do that you can find consensus. Consensus is never immediate but it eventually happens and science does not move forward without it. It doesn't mean 100% consensus, I imagine Fred Hoyle went to his grave believing in the Steady State model but those outside the consensus get sidelined and forgotten. If we are going to bet on the future it'd be advisable to bet on the 19/1 on favourite aka the consensus.
Well done Prof Francis. Two clear sentences.
What kind of point do you think you're scoring by noting that scientists don't know everything about a polar vortex in February 2014? We're posing questions about the effect of increased amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere over decades. Where do you actually want your information from? If not from "the experts" then who?
To date, 9 of the 10 warmest years on record (since 1880) have occurred during the 21st century. Only one year during the 20th century—1998—was warmer than 2013. I bet Prof Francis wouldn't have a difficult job teasing out a climate change signal from that.
You're using the local weather and they're comparing the climate. Yes. Chicago and Washington have different local weather and average temperatures but do you have any reason to believe that the relationship in average temperatures between the two places has changed over the centuries. 44,000 years ago Chicago wasn't tropical while Washington was ice-bound. It's highly probable that both were equally colder/warmer.
If the two places are at the same latitudes and similar sites eg both large islands it increases the validity of comparing climates. So, you compare sites on Baffin Island and Greenland now and use that difference when comparing data from the past.
You seem to be under some illusion that Climatologists are the only group putting forward AGW when in fact I am not aware of a single professional body of scientists or engineers who dispute AGW.
An example from the Institute of Civil Engineers: "The science is clear: Climate Change is a reality. Engineers must now be in engaged in responding to the challenges and threats which Climate Change poses to our built environment."
If the Register is going to continue posting these climate trolling articles should they not think of employing an actual scientist to write them who can actually speak about the subject instead of people who write about the climate because they, you know, use umbrellas and have been skiing and stuff.
Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years
Christophe Kinnard, Christian M. Zdanowicz, David A. Fisher, Elisabeth Isaksson, Anne de Vernal & Lonnie G. Thompson
Nature 479, 509–512 (24 November 2011)
or googling "Kinnard arctic" gives it as the top hit.
For the last 1400 years summer ice levels have never before dropped below 8 million square km (Kinnard et al, 2011) and now, in the last 30 years they have dropped below 5 million. So, what's this natural process that has just occurred in recent times then?
I was taught it started in the mid-18th century and was virtually over by the 1840s. All that coal being burnt in steam engines for 100 years might have begun to have an effect.
I note that in figure 2 of the article you can see how much more melting is going on in the 2000-2010 decade.
Decisions decisions - shall I wait for the paper to come out or analyse the readings from 3500 over the last 10 years and then integrate it into the other readings from the last 50 years... That's a toughie.
I might even trust that the American Association for the Advancement of Science have provided an accurate precis of the paper.
I'd rather some form of coding was introduced in Primary school and then in year 1 and 2 as a small part of Maths and parts of other subjects (scripting in Excel or Photoshop type apps). I would advise students that a qualification in computing was a waste of the chance to study another subject especially at A-Level.