NOAA can't predict the solar mean, they don't know
Historical data
In 1913 we had a yearly mean of 1.4 (sunspots)
In 1917 the mean was 103.9
I have my own theory on the cycle, and my prediction is for a much more active Maximum than the NOAA predicts.
The chances for a destructive CME (one that is both powerful and with a trajectory to hit the planet) is random, but with a high level of activity a serious risk.
The Carrington event occured in 1859, the mean of that year was 93.8
Biting the hand that feeds IT
