Posts by Jellied Eel

Cyber weapons in the Israel-Iran conflict may hit the US

Re: Distraction

I think this is a rally around the flag attempt as much as anything else from Miliekowski, the entity is widely unpopular

But who's flag? We've already seen Bibi's bombing of Gaza resulting in attacks on Jews, synagogues etc around the world, and attacking Iran is only likely to increase those attacks. Bibi might think Iran is an existential threat to his rule, or Israel, but it isn't to Judaism, which is one of those anti-zionism vs anti-semitism things. They're different, but all too often lumped together. Then there's the assumption that regime change in Iran will actually work, and won't result in a more hostile leadership. Nothing says "Let's be friends!" quite like sucker punching them.

Plus there's the risk of blowback. Bibi's not always very popular in Israel, outside his group of neo-cons and has been using conflicts to keep out of jail. So there's a chance that it's Israel gets regime changed, not Iran.

Asymmetric vs metric

So much is being written about threats like cyberattacks, or Iran deciding to attack the US, or other perceiveed enemies. So this article, or this one from the Bbc-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c74n23y1x48o

Israel-Iran strikes: What are the worst-case scenarios?

If Iran failed to damage Israel's well-protected military and other targets, then it could always aim its missiles at softer targets in the Gulf, especially countries that Iran believes aided and abetted its enemies over the years.

Some missiles have been landing in & around Eilat, which is primarily a tourist resort, but what if Iran decided to hit Israel's MIC, dual-use, or just IT-angular targets here-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haifa#Economy

Matam (short for Merkaz Ta'asiyot Mada – Scientific Industries Center), the largest and oldest business park in Israel, is at the southern entrance to the city, hosting manufacturing and R&D facilities for a large number of Israeli and international hi-tech companies, such as Apple, Amazon, Abbot, Cadence, Intel, IBM, Magic Leap, Microsoft, Motorola, Google, Yahoo!, Elbit, CSR, Philips, PwC and Amdocs. The campus of the University of Haifa is also home to IBM Haifa Labs.

Media has been focused on oil (and then indirectly gas, energy) price effects, not so much the economic & supply chain effects of fab or phamaceutical factories being damaged or destroyed. Or the staff being killed. Israel's attacked Iranian brains, Iran may return the favor. Some staff may have been evacuated, some might not have been. Israel has, as usual demonstrated that residential buildings are fair game in their assassination strikes. And it's also demonstrated the problems of modern warfare, ie videos showing Israel's GBAD active, and what goes up must come down. So there'll be fatalities, injuries and damage from falling debris. Or just the risks of having things like Israel's MoD building very close to a major hospital.

And then the geopolitical angle having Israel effectively declaring another undeclared war and regime change operation against Iran. Israel (or Bibi) views Iran as an existential threat that's been only weeks away from developing nuclear weapons for decades now. Iran probably views Israel in much the same way, and now has even more reasons to try and develop nuclear weapons. Then how countries or power blocs will line up. US denies knowledge or involvement, countries might not believe them and might view US attempts at negotiating a nuclear deal with Iran as just a distraction. But I suspect the attempted nuclear deal is very much off the table now. Plus other interesting things that might raise questions, like the similarities between Israel sneaking drones into Iran, and another country doing the same in Russia.

Amazon has changed its nuclear deal in Pennsylvania to bypass grumpy regulators

Re: Not as it seems...

I don't understand how this arrangement destabilizes the grid, as the other energy providers assert

I think it's because the 1,920 MW in the original PPA wouldn't have touched the grid and would potentially have given Amazon priority with the NPP's output. So other grid connected suppliers would have less capacity to sell, arbitrage & do the usual energy market shenanigans. A bit like the UK, where large energy consumers can't buy direct from a generator, but have to have a 'sleeve' contract so an energy supplier + grid operator can take their cut.

Everyone in the community getting access to nuclear power vs. just Bitcoin miners and AI slop generators seems like a win for the common man.

Only if/when the AI bubble bursts, and the slop generators are actually investing in additional power generation. So under the original PPA, there'd be less power for the common man because Amazon's gobbled it up. Then because that could create a shortage, every other energy user might get higher energy prices. If Amazon actually builds their own SMRs, they can use energy they've paid for. Then when the bubble bursts, that could mean more energy and lower prices.

Waymo problems in La La Land as robotaxis set aflame

Re: Illegal, Not "Undocumented"

How many coppers are going to demand a passport and make checks to see if I've overstayed? It's been at least a decade since I've been pulled over on a traffic stop. To top it off, I sorta speak the language.

Currently there's no such thing as Scottish citizenship, and won't be until Scotland gains independence. But your passport and visa status would go into the system on entry to the UK. Clock would start ticking. Then if visa expires and there's no record of you leaving the UK, your name would go onto the naughty list. Renting or buying property needs ID, as does working. So police or border officers could just rock up at your address or place of work, detain and deport you.

So it's in theory easy to catch 'legal' illegal immigrants. But the ones that sneak into the country as fully illegal then can end up caught in the 'black economy' and sweat shops or the sex trade with very little legal protections.

Re: Trumpty Dumpty went off his rocker

If you raise everyone's wages it just becomes a catastrophic inflationary mess. Rent control usually backfires resulting in rental properties being owned by the same family for decades and passed down to the kids.

Yep, it's crazy. Last time I looked at LA, 'normal' family homes cost $2-4m putting them waay out of reach of normal families. Then seeing things like teacher or police officer salaries being >$100k but property still out of their reach. So like you say, just a tad inflationary. Not sure what the solution could be because like you say, rent control rarely ends well. Maybe more social housing for key workers, but that also tends to have problems with the definition of key worker. Plus most of the land already owned, burned or fought over by developers wanting to maximise their return.

I think Gordon Gecko was wrong when he said 'greed is good' and it would be nice if we can get back to a world where homes are for living in rather than flipping. But I think there are signs that bubbles are about to burst in places like LA & Miami, with inventory exceeding supply, especially in Miami.

Re: Wrong target guys

I do not remember it being fire bombed. I know there were all sorts of crazy claims from the Democrats and their friends in the media but nothing with any actual evidence.

There were the two mysterious 'pipe bombs' that didn't really seem to get much investigation at the time. Now, those might.

Re: Trumpty Dumpty went off his rocker

A public services deficit of $100Bn sounds huge but only if your brain is too small to understand a revenue of >$4Tn, then it becomes almost spare change.

And you fail to understand that revenue != income, or taxable income, or other money that Cali could get their mitts on. So it's a bit like figuring out how many Angelinos could dance on the pinhead in the Governor's office. Just because AlphaGoo, Apple etc have bases there, it doesn't mean Cali could help itself to all their revenue. Especially when Delaware, and the big companies being highly proficient tax minimisation.

Then there's the tax balance t'other poster mentioned.. which showed a surplus of 'only' $76bn. Which isn't a lot, especially given that tax differential is mostly indivdualls and businesses. If those leave, then obviously their money goes with them. Plus there would be boring little details like Federal businesses also obviously leaving Cali. NASA relocates JPL, DoD moves USN out of San Diego, and maybe does a bit of a Gitmo and keeps Coronado to launch raids and psyops campaigns into Cali etc etc. Or there's Hollywood, currently in decline and perhaps terminally.

Then there's other fun. So Trump's proposed tariffs in foreign film productions. Hollywood then becomes foreign. Oops. Or the small matter of California's ports handling a lot of the West coast's shipping traffic. Which is also in decline and would be subject to tariff fun & games. Then what would happen next fire season, and California losing any Federal emergency funds, or funds to deal with mudslides next winter.

And then there's just the political optics. California politicians talking about escalating the riots to protect illegal immigrants, Newsom talking about tax evasion, or just secession, which if serious, would be de facto insurrection. Entertaining as it would be to see Newsom perp-walked on his way to a maximum security prison, I think that unlikely. But come mid-terms, or the next election, Republicans could just point at Newsom's track record of defending criminals, and laugh.

What we have in LA, just like with the 'summer of love' in 2020, is a lot of private property damage and looting and the talking heads saying that the protesters are being provoked by the feds. There is also evidence that there are groups supplying, if not actually controlling, the 'protesters'.

I think this is one of the interesting aspects, especially wrt political warfare. So I saw suggestions from the 'summer of love' that someone had been leaving strategically placed pallets of bricks around the rioting areas. Then same thing may have happened again. Might just be a conspiracy theory and they're there because planned works for repaving etc. That's something I've pondered a few times, so urban planning vs civil disorder. Block paving looks pretty, but not when rioters can easily lift the bricks and start lobbing them at cars, law enforcement, shop windows etc.

But DoJ is investigating if there are organisers, and if they can be linked to the Democrats, that'll just provide more political ammunition as well. Also curious how lawfare will work out. So interfering with ICE could be an easy Federal obstruction charge & felony, keeping offenders out of Cali State catch & release justice system.

Re: Trumpty Dumpty went off his rocker

California is the world's 4th largest economy, roughly 14% of the entire US economy, pretty much double that of Texas.

California would have no problem at all leaving the US because of trump and standing as an independent country.

California would have big problems, mainly this one-

Public finances

Revenues $195.73 billion (2022-23)

Expenses $286.4 billion (2022-23)

So a public sector deficit of probably >$100bn now, and it would lose any Federal funding. Some of that would be offset by not having to send taxes raised in Cali to the Fed. Which Newsom and some of Cali's finest public servants have been threatening to do. But that would then invoke the wrath of the IRS & DoJ, and Newsom could be arrested. Which the DoJ could probably do anyway because of the 'sanctuary city' status, sheltering illegal immigrants and possibly assisting the rioters and interfering with lawful attempts to detain and deport people who are in the US illegally.

But I suggest it's mostly a publicity stunt. The last election results showed that ilegal immigration is a hot topic, as is law enforcement. The Democrats are in something of a crisis at the moment, and Newsom is being tipped as the DNC's next candidate. So provoking something that can portray Newsom as weak, ineffective or incompetent, especially on hot-button issues helps the Republicans. But it also doesn't help Cali, especially when it's probably going to have to increase taxes to pay for fire damage, it's rail project, and has the Olympics to pay for.

Plus it's already been depopulating due to high taxes and cost of living, and it's easy for a lot of Cali businesses to move out of state, either physically, or just on paper. I think depopulation also means it's going to lose 4 electors.

As for Waymo, seems like their autopilot needs updating. They can already do congestion avoidance, so need to add riot avoidance into their algorithms. Especially given potential liability, if they send a passenger into a storm of bricks or molotovs.

Ukraine strikes Russian bomber-maker with hack attack

Re: Washing Machines no longer spinning

If an AIRBUS crashes without ONE of these sensors, how does a RUSSIAN missile possibly fly with NONE of these sensors ?

Washing machines will not have any of these sensors.

Nobody is saying Russian missiles & drones don't have some sensors. Ursula von der Liar did hower say that Russia was scavenging parts from washing machines and fridges. I've been saying it wouldn't need to, given stuff like this-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maskless_lithography

In 2018 the Dutch and Russia jointly funded (Rusnano) company Mapper Lithography producing multi e-beam maskless lithography MEMS components went bankrupt and was acquired by ASML Holding, a major competitor at the time. The foundry producing devices is located near Moscow, Russia. As of early 2019 it was run by Mapper LLC. The Mapper Lithography originally was created at Delft University of Technology in 2000.

and-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vibrating_structure_gyroscope#MEMS_gyroscopes

In many cases, a single part includes gyroscopic sensors for multiple axes. Some parts incorporate multiple gyroscopes and accelerometers (or multiple-axis gyroscopes and accelerometers), to achieve output that has six full degrees of freedom. These units are called inertial measurement units, or IMUs.

and again I've seen those combined with microcontrollers that also include GPS/GLONAS capability, all in one cheap and convenient package to control drones, RC aircraft... or missiles. I have no idea if missiles would also include Pitot tubes, or need them. If Russia can produce MEMS gyros, it could print enough to give very accurate INS IMUs and integrate GLONAS data to correct for drift and/or improve accuracy.. And Russia can or could make the necessary components. Sanctions and Mapper Lithography being a JV might mean a dependency on ASML for operation, plus Ukraine has been targeting Russia's supply chain and that foundry might be out of operation due to drones.

But this is also a NATO/EU/UK supply-chain issue. We want to churn out say, 10,000 drones a month. Do we have any foundries producing MEMS gyros? If not, how long (and how much) to set those up because we can't rely on China to supply those components?

Re: Washing Machines no longer spinning

You have no idea what a flight controller needs. Its not about the CPU its about the other sensors.

Sure I do, and you can buy them for <$50 with INS, gyro, radio and motor controllers all in one small package. Just wire pinouts to battery, antenna and motors, and Bobs your bomb maker. Plus all the open source data being shared online for folks that want to build their own drones, or RC aircraft. They may be intended to drive small drones & 5V motors that can carry <500g, but it doesn't take much to add some glue components so they can drive 24V motors instead, or some logic to scale up/down inputs.

Why would a washing machine or toaster have a GPS sensor ?

Because people really need one of these?

https://revcook.com/products/r180-connect-plus-smart-toaster

Our most customizable toasting experience with 38 bread types, 7 brownness levels in 3 easy taps, for the perfect level of toastyness, every time

Upgraded interactive display includes your personalized photo frame, automatic time and date and your local weather forecast

Which I guess is.. useful. After all, you wouldn't want to be making toast in the rain cos it'll go soggy. I didn't look too closely but a lot of these 'smart' appliances also encourage you to download spyware to your phone so it can slurp additional data. Or tell you that your kitchen is on fire because you've left your toaster unattended. Oh, and your toast has burned. HTH, HAND and note the disclaimer in your toasters T&Cs.

Russia doesnt need to steal microcontrollers from washing machines because it can buy them from china, brand new in the box.

Sure, but people keep forgetting that Russia can also make their own. So ponder this, which is something I encountered when thinking about making home automation sensors/controllers-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microcontroller#Volume_and_cost

In 2012, worldwide sales of 8-bit microcontrollers were around US$4 billion, while 4-bit microcontrollers also saw significant sales.

In 2015, 8-bit microcontrollers could be bought for US$0.311 (1,000 units), 16-bit for US$0.385 (1,000 units), and 32-bit for US$0.378 (1,000 units, but at US$0.35 for 5,000).

And had some fun discovering that 8-bit controllers would cost more/harder to source than 16 or 32-bit because a lot of Chinese fabs had switched lines to producing those rather than 8-bit. More bits than were needed, but also SoCs with network, RAM and NVRAM could be had for only a few cents more. And that there were a lot of Chinese design bureaus that could take a list of specifications & turn those into schematics, or even prototype boards in <1wk. Which is something Western companies either couldn't, or wouldn't do without lots of additional money.

But this is one of the problems around the 'orcs with shovels' meme, or assuming that only China or the West can make chips-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maskless_lithography

In 2018 the Dutch and Russia jointly funded (Rusnano) company Mapper Lithography producing multi e-beam maskless lithography MEMS components went bankrupt and was acquired by ASML Holding, a major competitor at the time. The foundry producing devices is located near Moscow, Russia. As of early 2019 it was run by Mapper LLC. The Mapper Lithography originally was created at Delft University of Technology in 2000.

Russia also has some smart people & technology, and as of 2022, the foundry is probably run by Rusnano/Russians again because sanctions.. Which have a bad habit of incentivising sanctioned nations to become more self-reliant. How many foundrys does the UK have still running?

Oh, and back to Spiders. This is an interesting video-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCm5nnVCY1k

With a bit of a summary of that operation. Which touched on how drones might have been controlled, and if they were remotely controlled. Makes a good point that they might not have been and were instead just pre-programmed to fly to pre-determined targets, ie where aircraft were. Which may also explain some of the limited success, like if they weren't human controlled, they wouldn't have been able to hit aircraft that had moved. Which would also be the aircraft you'd probably most want to hit but there might have been a couple of days delay between drones being programmed with their targets and the attacks. Which makes sense, ie the more drone operators required, the more risk of leaks & detection, and the less need for a reliable network. Which is also a possible counter when they showed drones going to a disarmed state when GPS signal was lost.

Re: Washing Machines no longer spinning

Why would a washing machine need a DSP ?..

Now tell me why would a washing machine have a sensors to read air speed, orientation, gps etc some of the core building parts of a flight computer ?

Not sure why you're asking me. I pointed out that it was Reichsfuhrer von der Leyen who made the washing machines and fridges claim, wiithout providing any evidence. Then I gave an example of a chip that was supposedly recovered from an old missile. Then thanks to modern living and semi manufacturing, washing machines might actually have GPS etc because it could be cheaper to buy SoCs with those in them than without. Plus if it's a 'smart' washing machine or fridge, it'll probably want to know where you live, orientation and air speed to better target you with ads.

But as for CPUs vs sensors.. You really need both, and maybe A/D convertors and DSPs so the missile knows where it isn't, can wiggle its fins, deploy some flares or chaff and do generaly missiley things.. None of which really requires a lot of compute power.

Re: Washing Machines no longer spinning

However, I am skeptical about the really modern stuff, given the amount of miniaturisation, integration and surface mounting in today’s electronics. However, I would not be surprised if discrete components have not been replaced by a more capable compute module that can be programmed to support internet and associated functionality: an Atmel AVR could run a washing machine or a missile.

Exactly. The basic functions are nicely explained in this meme-

https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/the-missile-knows-where-it-is

The missile knows where it is at all times. It knows this because it knows where it isn't.

So a relatively dumb missile doesn't need much CPU. There's also a fun game called From the Depths which lets us play with PIDs, missile designs and has modular missiles that can include LUA. A guidance script is less than 50 lines and the basic math is the same as it could be in the real-world. Then more capable chips could give more functionality, so possible modification of Iskanders to use laser guidance. But that would also mean adding sensors for a seeker head. I guess adding things like image recognition would need a bit more grunt, but still wouldn't need state of the art components.

Then I guess there's necessity, ie TI doesn't make that DSP any more, so new production would need an alternative. Then what the effects of combining previously discrete components into a SOC might have on the electronics package in a missile. So reduce size and power requirements of that, and maybe create more space for fuel or warhead. And Russia does have the capacity and capability to manufacture their own ICs.

Re: Washing Machines no longer spinning

Perhaps this something we should be investigating, namely ways of both bringing the cost down and facilitating volume manufacturing under war conditions.

Just as a PS.. This is a great video-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZTGwcHQfLY

Destin from SmarterEveryDay describing the challenges he found in trying to manufacture a 'Made in the USA' grill scrubber. He mentions the problem of a brain drain in key skills like tool & die making as we've offshored and de-industrialised. UK and most of the EU has the same problem, and if we can't make the tools that make the machines, molds or other components, we can't manufacture weapons, or stuff in general. We're losing the funnel of apprentice -> journeyman -> master machinist, toolmaker etc so although people may have ideas, they can't turn those into reality as easily.

This is something I looked at doing, ie setting up a business to train machinists but couldn't get a business case that worked. But it's something governments can do, ie rather than spending on churning out graduates with degrees that aren't that useful, create tech colleges that can churn out skilled engineers, machinists and trade skills instead.

Re: Employee disatisfaction drops

No, that's called war. You attack, you get consequences. Too bad. Russian troll is obvious.

Too bad nafobot is obvious. Currently it isn't a war, but an SMO and possibly soon an ATO. Either way, wars, or armed conflicts are still subject to laws that are supposed to make it illegal to attack civilians. If you do, that can and sometimes is treated as murder and would be a war crime. Yet Ukraine regularly murders journalists, bloggers, concert attendees, drops bridges on passenger trains. The kind of stuff things like the Geneva Convention(s) were intended to prevent, and to keep armed conflicts vaguely civilised.

Oh, and of course Ukraine still proudly runs their kill list site-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myrotvorets

Inciting and inviting the murder of anyone Ukraine deems undesirable. Which includes politicians, journalists etc etc. Strange the way that site is still reachable, yet sites like RT are blocked.. But interesting the way you seem to condone murder of anyone deemed an enemy of the state. Which would be a shame, if Russia started copying Ukraine. Or pehaps it has, ie the strange case of Ukrainian rent-boys and an attempted attack on some of Starmer's property in an 'attack on democracy'.

Re: Thank goodness

Any proof of that or did you invent it yourself?

Funny that no-one else knows about that at all.

I'll just drop this here again, because you seem to have missed it-

https://ukraine.un.org/sites/default/files/2022-02/Conflict-related%20civilian%20casualties%20as%20of%2031%20December%202021%20%28rev%2027%20January%202022%29%20corr%20EN_0.pdf

OHCHR estimates the total number of conflict-related casualties in Ukraine from 14 April 2014 to 31 December 2021 to be 51,000–54,0008: 14,200-14,400 killed (at least 3,404 civilians, estimated 4,400 Ukrainian forces9, and estimated 6,500 members of armed groups10), and 37-39,000 injured (7,000–9,000 civilians, 13,800–14,200 Ukrainian forces11 and 15,800-16,200 members of armed groups.

There were also regular reports from the OSCE regarding ceasefire violations by both sides, but those stopped when the SMO started and the old reports seem to be memory holed, or just hard to find again. That you don't know about casualties during Ukraine's civil war is just an example of your own ignorance. Deliberate, or otherwise..

Re: > In fact I'm appalled by some people's celebration of it. This is not a film or game

I thought so only a week ago, but Trump using National Guard against ordinary people leaves Putler to the second place

Ordinary people who are torching cars & buildings, attacking police officers, looting. So your basic riot and public disorder that Trump doesn't want turning into a repeat of the Democrat-supported 'fiery, but mostly peaceful' protests that erupted during his first term.

Re: UAC

Not because Putin started it? How much Russians pay you?

Nope. Obama & Biden started it with their 2014 regime change and coup. That triggered Ukraine's civil war, and a lot of western leaders when Crimea and Donbas broke away from Kiev. Then came Minsk, Ukraine preparing to reoccupy the Rhineland.. I mean Crimea, DPR & LPR, Russia's intervention and the rest is still becoming history. Lots of provocations in the supposedly 'unprovoked' and 'full scale' invasion.

Really? Almost 90% of the parts used in those are either Western, Chinese or Ukrainan imports. In theory they are repairable, but obtaining the parts will take a very long time and meanwhile they won't fly.

Citation needed. Especially as the footage released showed drones aiming for the wing roots. Which is sensible given that's where the fuel and structural elements are. But not so much of the avionics. So fixing damage might need a machine shop, which Russia has. But then Russia had also moved production from Ukraine post-1991 for things like helicopter turbines so it didn't have to rely on Ukraine. But this is one of the biggest problems nafobots have, ie their detachment from reality and realising that Russian industry is actually very capable. They had been investing, while the West has been running industry and manufacturing into the ground.

Various 'leaders' have been talking about reversing policy and turning the EU & UK into arsenals of 'democracy', but it's too little, too late. If Russia can produce more tanks, aircraft and ammunition than it's losing or using than we can funnel into Ukraine, then Russia wins.

Re: Washing Machines no longer spinning

Well, given we only have the Express report of a Ukrainian inspection of the bits, which doesn’t identify the exact semiconductors being found, nor do we have much information on the sophistication of the missile.

We have more than that. We have this statement from the Reichsfuhrer herself-

https://x.com/EU_Commission/status/1571454007683428352?lang=en

The Russian military is taking chips from dishwashers and refrigerators to fix their military hardware, because they ran out of semiconductors.

Russia's industry is in tatters and its economy on life-support.

This is the price for Putin's trail of death and destruction.

Way back in 2022. Which was essentially 3 lines of bullshit and projection. Russia's industry isn't in tatters, it's economy is doing a lot better than Germany and much of the EU, which is paying the price of Ursula's 17 rounds of sanctions. There was also very little evidence that Russia is actually taking chips from dishwashes & refrigerators, but it made for an excellent meme.

There have been some pics showing boards allegedly taken from Russian missiles & drones. One showed an early '90s vintage TI DSP chip, which was interesting because at the time, it was 'state of the art' and I had to sign an export declaration when I got a dev kit to use it. But not something I'd expect to find in a fridge or dishwasher. The DSP has long been EOL and there are a slew of clones, or just more capable chips. Which is also one of the issues because missiles don't really need the latest & greatest semiconductors to function, and Russia can produce their own chips.

Perhaps this something we should be investigating, namely ways of both bringing the cost down and facilitating volume manufacturing under war conditions.

Yep. Or it could just be a good thing to minimise supply-chain distruption. Trying to compete making the most modern CPU, GPU & memory would be expensive, but there was a shortage of support chips like power controllers during the panicdemic. So supporting UK semi fabs that could produce say, ARM SoCs and support ICs could be a smart idea.

Re: Zelenskyy sure seems to hold a lot of cards

Because bombing what are clearly civilian homes, is both a clean cut war crime and has a human angle meaning it will have bigger “imapact” than what was most probably an empty office building.

I would suggest the strike on the government building shows a much bigger impact. It also isn't evidence of any war crime, because your implication is that the buildings were the target. Then, much as with the apartment building bombed in Yemen, apartments weren't being used by military personnel, or military personnel visiting girlfriends. And then that buildings weren't hit by falling drone, missile or missile interceptor debris.

Figuring out the truth behind that will probably never happen because Ukraine & Russia are both littered with debris and there's no real independent investigations that could determine if a building was hit intentionally, unintentionally, by Russian or Ukrainian missiles. Especially after Ukraine has previously been caught lying about this, ie the claims that it was a 'Russian' missiles that killed killed a couple of people in Poland. After much denial, Ukraine admitted that it was their interceptors they'd fired at a Russian missile, missed and the interceptors failed to self-destruct.

We're meant to believe that out of thousands of missiles fired into the sky, this is the first and only time that's ever happened. We're also meant to believe that Ukraine hasn't lobbed well over 1,000 drones into Russia in the last couple of weeks, prompting this escalation, which was then escalated even further with the bridge and strategic aircraft attacks. Oh, and WaPo's article that these attacks, along with the murder of a Ukrainian politician as he dropped his kid off at school in Spain just signalled an escalation in Ukraine's 'Dirty War'..

Re: Zelenskyy sure seems to hold a lot of cards

So your justification for attacking a civilian building, which is a war crime unless the building is used for strictly military purposes, is that it serves for Civil Defence?

Oh dear. It might have been holding a meeting for Ukrainian philosophers and journalists. Were the Duginas strictly military when Ukraine planted a car bomb? But it's unhealthy criticising Kiev, as Darya Dugina, Gonzalo Lira, and Maxim Fomin discovered. Fomin when Ukraine gave him a statue that exploded in a St Petersburg cafe. Or there was the Crocus City Hall massacre. Ukraine of course denied all those, despite previously assassinating Ukrainians in and around Donbas for being 'collaborators'.

And now of course the veiled threat that they know where UAC employees live.

Oh, and of course there are the bridges that all suffered spontaneuous stress and fatigue, or just the Kerch Straight bridge that Ukraine did admit to bombing, you somehow thought was shattered and was re-opened to civilian traffic after a couple of hours. None of those bridges were 'for strictly militart purposes'.. So why did Ukraine bomb them, or were they (and you) admitting to war crimes? Or further afield. Some American politicians got excited when they had a successful air strike on an apartment building killing 1 Houthi, his girlfriend and around 50 others. Or if you're ever in Belgrade, visit their TV station, both new and old-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_bombing_of_the_Radio_Television_of_Serbia_headquarters

Insofar as the attack actually was aimed at disrupting the communications network, it was legally acceptable ... NATO’s targeting of the RTS building for propaganda purposes was an incidental (albeit complementary) aim of its primary goal of disabling the Serbian military command and control system and to destroy the nerve system and apparatus that keeps Milošević in power

And aren't TV stations also part of civil defence networks? Stay home, turn on TV or radio, await the all clear.. No, wait, we bombed that one so good luck. But we also bombed a lot of other civil infrastructure, just as we did in Libya, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan etc etc. The part you are sadly mistaken about is you can lawfully bomb 'civilian' infrastructure, if you can claim it's dual-use, housing military or paramilitary operations, or just because we say it's OK.

The actual law also says that all you need to is make some efforts to minimise civilian losses, and those efforts don't have to be high, hence why so many civilians have been killed in so many of our not-wars. So I dunno, waiting until night before bombing warehouses and industrial buldings when staff won't be at work, or on the roads. Or trickier ones, like when hotels or apartment buildings are given over, or just block-booked to soldiers. That makes those buildings lawful targets, although because being dead turns a combatant into a non-combatant, Ukraine would claim they're now civilians. Or the Bbc showing photos of a drone operator at work from inside a residential building. Or the trickier one, Patriot batteries in residential areas. Those are intended to protect cities because cities are where the people and legitmate targets are, but missile batteries are obviously also lawful targets, and if they were in wide open spaces far from civilians, would just be obvious. Defenders also have a legal duty to minimise civilian casualties by not using them as 'human shields'.

But still doesn't explain why the Bbc didn't show that image, and chooses to only show residential buildings. Surely if the town hall was such a slam-dunk war crime, they'd show it, and explain why? Of course it could be you are just wrong, plus Ukraine having harsh penalties for anyone that shows unauthorised images of damage.

Re: Zelenskyy sure seems to hold a lot of cards

So unless you (well, the Russian Aggressor State) can prove positively that there was a definite military advantage in destroying a civilian administration building, your acknowledgement that it was destroyed by a Russian missile is an acknowledgement that the protocol was broken and that the RAS just committed (yet another) war crime.

Hmm? It's an impressive image showing what actually happens when Russia decides it wants to hit a building. Suprised the Bbc didn't show it and instead chooses to show apartment buildings that are far less damaged. But I'll offer 2 words.. "Civil Defence". Along with how that may factor into a country under martial law, and that rather large building perhaps providing more functions than issuing driver & dog licences. You might also want to go and look at images from the First & Second Chechen conflicts and photos of Grozny for examples of what cities look like when Russia does decide to do what Israel's doing and clear ground for future redevelopment.

Again one of those bits of cognitive dissonance though. "orcs with shovels" and recycled washing machines who ran out of missiles over 3yrs ago, apparently wasting those scarce resources on apartment buildings. Which can't possibly have been hit by falling debris from either failed, or successful missile interception attempts. All those drones & missiles being shot down by Ukraine just vanish entirely. Gravity has been banished by the glorious Kiev regime.

The point wasn't to underestimate an opponent it was to correctly point out that Russia is unable to field a wholly new non Soviet aircraft design - their "stealth fighter" the Su-57 is vaporware and photos of the construction techniques being used are not confidence inspiring.

Russian AI, holographic and sound projection must be far in advance of ours given vaporware creating vaportrails at airshows and arms exhibitions. And have you ever seen an A-10 up close? Or <cough> a Tesla? The most advanced factories in the world can't quite get the hang of sorting out panel gaps. Plus as the Russia's pointed out, those were test aircraft, not serial production.

Russia's *best" fighter is the Su-35, a modernised Soviet design the SU-27.

Obviously good enough for government work. But one of the West's best, and most versatile aircraft is the good'ol F-15. Or even the F-16. Both Vietnam-era aircraft, but both like the Su-27 that was a newer design on account of it being a counter to the F-15, have all been extensively re-designed and modernised.

The Kuznetsov may never sail again, the 2 replacement electromagnetic launch carriers have been stagnant for over a decade, whereas China has gone from completing a Kuznetsov sister ship, building and launching an improved version from scratch to building, launching and commissioning an Emails Catapult the Type 003, with the Type 004 in development.

Yep, and thanks to sanctions, Russia, China, Iran, DPRK all now have closer development and technology sharing agreements. What a wonderful peace dividend our 'leaders' have given the world! Plus some fringe cases, like maybe the Houthis sharing their knowledg & experiences of attacking US carriers and other warships.

Re: Zelenskyy sure seems to hold a lot of cards

After that and other experiences, it astounded me that America went into Iraq and Afghanistan…

Or that Macron went to French Indochina, expecting a warm reception. Poor guy didn't even get that from his wife.

Re: Zelenskyy sure seems to hold a lot of cards

If the US and Europe had acted with any real sense of urgency and decisiveness, Putin’s “Special Military Operation” would have been over in a matter of days, leaving the bear nursing a blood nose…

That was either never the plan, or just demonstrated the incompetence of our 'leaders'. So we'd used Minsk to train and arm Ukraine after the mauling the UAF took during the civil war. 800k or so troops trained, equipped and poised to retake Donbas and Crimea. Except Russia knew that was coming and intervened. Ukraine might have had enough to achieve their objectives, if Russia had stayed out of it. Then came the build-up for the much hyped, and publicised Spring/Summer offensive. We scrapped together some more kit, sent that to Ukraine who kept saying they didn't have enough to meet our 'leaders' advance publicity goals. But our 'leaders' were determined to beat Russia using every available Ukrainian..

So they tried, and ran right into the Surovikin line. Zaluzhny was critical of Ukraine's own 'leadership' and the decision to split their forces, but lost that battle to Sirskiy, who just helped Russia demonstrate the old adage of divide and conquer. But then Sirskiy had also lead the defence of Bakhmut, wasting more Ukrainian lives and equipment, and of course the ill-fated invasion of Kursk.. and he's still trying to invade their while Russia continues to advance.

So Ukraine never really had enough men or material, either because we couldn't, or wouldn't supply that. When it did cobble together some, it arguably wasted opportunities. And now it's probably too late because it's campaign season, Russia has been building up their own forces and is now pushing in the North, South and East. And being a war of attrition, their losses are accelerating. But our 'leaders' probably knew this, hence the desperation around trying to get an unconditional ceasefire to buy Ukraine some time.. Which given Ukraine's actions over the last few weeks, Russia isn't going to give them. Ukraine's best chance at survival now is another coup and new leadership that would be willing to negotiate peace in good faith.

Re: Zelenskyy sure seems to hold a lot of cards

Even if it was 1 lost plane, what the fuck are those Russian soldiers doing ?

Probably not drinking the kool aid and just advancing on Sumy, Kupiansk etc etc. Which gives Ukraine the challenge of trying to hold off advances on mutiple, widely seperated fronts and supply forces trying to hold around 1,000km of front lines. Oh, and the glorious Ukrainski army is still trying to invade & conquer Kursk.

Sumy could get interesting given there's a large forest in the way but Russia might just bypass that, or burn it. Sumy is a pretty large city, so Russia might just bypass & encirlce that as well. Most of the media is keeping rather quiet about Russian advances, even though it's the reason why Ukraine is so desperate for their '30-day unconditional ceasefire' that would allow them some much needed breathing room, and that Russia just isn't going to give them. Especially now.

Meanwhile, the Bbc carries on with their usual 'residential buildings' meme, and doesn't show images like this one-

https://x.com/Prokudin__/status/1930611757040509050

Repeated strikes by Russians destroyed the building of the Kherson Regional State Administration.

Which was probably being used as an orphanage or something. Those Russians are just that evil! Wasting all the missiles they ran out of 36 months ago targetting apartment buildings..

Re: Zelenskyy sure seems to hold a lot of cards

I FDR had half the vision of Churchill Ukraine would have been in NATO from 45, and Russia would never have built any of their heavy bombers or missiles which were designed and manuf by the Ukrainians.

Uhuh. Like err, I dunno, Oleg Antonov? And Enegia is in Ukraine. And so were the universities that trained 'Ukraines' rocket scientists. And following the collapse of the Soviet Union and Ukraine gaining dependence, there was no brain drain, and Ukraine didn't run enterprises like Antonov into the ground. Of course we did help with that because Antonov was never going to be allowed to compete with US or EU aircraft manufacturers. And now Antonov is mostly just holes in the ground, like a lot of Ukraine's aerospace, defence and other industry.

only nazi I can see is putin, and you supporting nazi's, so guess what that makes you!

The playground is thataway---->

But never mind that noise you heard, It's just the nazis under your bed, in your closet, in your head. So sleep with one eye open, gripping your pillow tight because you seem to be seeing nazis everywhere.

Alternatively, given this was one of Putin's originally stated objectives for the SMO, denazification would be a requirement for EU accession, or just a generally good thing for a civilised nation.. Why hasn't Ukraine done anything, other than deny it? I'm fairly certain councils in the UK would take a dim view of erecting statues to Oswald Mosely, renaming streets or stadiums. Germany would also take a dim view of doing the same for Himmler etc. Our police regularly arrest and charge nazis & neo-nazis..

So why not Ukraine? Zelensky has the power to pass a law making it illegal to display or glorify that stuff, and will have to if Ukraine wants to join the EU & civil society. He's allegedly Jewish, so that should also motivate him. And yet he does nothing, other than deny Ukraine has a rather obvious neo-nazi problem. Then again, useful idiots like Starmer seem to have dropped the OUN & Baderites 'slava' slogan and I've not seen as many of the OUN's red & black flags lately.. But that might just mean photo editors have gotten more effective at erasing objectionable & abhorent (and probably illegal) content rather than Ukraine's Banderite problem having gone away.

Hardly. 3 Tu95s damaged, repairable. A50s - no engines, ie scrap - destroyed. Seems the CIA sat-pix were old. So for that MI6/CIA/SBU jaunt, Russia now rains down real hell on the Nazis.

Some useful aircraft were damaged and destroyed. The first FPV video released showed burning Tu-95s. Various people pointed out that aircraft don't tend to burn unless they carried some fuel. If they weren't carrying fuel, they weren't flight ready (or recent) and the A-50 videos showed that aircraft having no engines. Also a bit curious why the drone was humping the radome rather than the wing roots, but that may have been an assumption that the radome would be harder to replace.

But Ukraine also showed a pic of their SBU general looking at a nice glossy of an airfield with some red Xs. This operation was apparently 18months in the planning, satellites pass over the airfields probably every day. So Ukraine should have known which aircraft had moved in that 18months, and which were just parked in the boneyard and being cannibalised for parts. So why Ukraine might have wasted drones on aircraft that weren't operational. If the objective was to reduce the threat of being bombed, the active aircraft should have been the priority. Satellite imagery has shown they did have some success, ie burned aircraft, but not as many as originally claimed.

That's also one of those genie issues. Ukraine's demonstrated how to launch cheap attacks against airfields. Enemies now know this. It's long been known that drones are a threat to airports, so now we have to probably try harder to defend our own aircraft & airfields against this type of threat. One possibility might be to use jammers, and perhaps that's why the attack wasn't as successful as hoped, or claimed, ie Russia protected their active aircraft, but didn't bother with their boneyards.

On the other hand, I really don't understand why the size of exfiltrated data seems to always be touted as a major index of the severity of an attack. One could steal several gigabytes that's a pre-release marketing video, or one could steal 1 kilobyte that's a .txt with the EW countermeasures master password in plaintext.

Ukraine does have some proficient hackers, but it's the problem with propaganda. The website was defaced, so that was obviously compromised. That might have been the only thing compromised and the gigabytes of data could just be the contents of the public webserver. Equally, public websites can be jumping off points to get across the DMZ and attack internal networks. Ukraine has no real reason to keep classified Russia data private, so could have done the usual thing and drop some of it in the War Thunder forums.

Re: Employee disatisfaction drops

Now, Ukrainian intelligence know your name, possibly a photo, where you live, your bank account details, possibly things about your family and health.

You'd be foolish not to think what that might mean.

Ukraine has assassinated (ie murdered) enough Russian bloggers, journalists or just civilians for Ukraine's inference to be obvious. They've also assassinated (ie murdered) plenty of their own people, or just an American journalist, Gonzalo Lira who dared to criticise the Kiev regime. If he'd been a drug smuggling basketball player, Biden might have swapped him for an arms dealer, but he wasn't so Biden just ate ice cream and let him die instead.

Re: Zelenskyy sure seems to hold a lot of cards

Well, they are consistent with Ukrainian claims, and with the various Western nation claims,

Interesting circular logic. They're Ukrainian claims, and Ukraine has no incentive to exagerate, or just lie. 41 aircraft become 20, or less. Ghost of Kiev, Heroes of Snake Island etc etc. But then Western 'nations', or more like Western media just take Ukraine's figures and run with them. MoD or SBU says, therefore it must be true. Or the good'ol Bbc partners with 'Mediazona' who used to try to do more realistic assessments, even though Mediazona used to be known as 'Pussy Riot' and are just a tad anti-Russian. Reliable sources just ain't what they used to be.

You are right, I didn't mention Ukrainian casualty figures. They were not relevant to that fact that Russia is losing

Again you seem unable to tell the difference between fact and fiction. In your opinion Russia is losing. In mine, and the facts on the ground, it doesn't appear to be.

Quite clearly, Russia never intended that this turn into a war of attrition. you don't fight a war of attrition in a maximum of 10 days.

Again, you clearly don't understand the origins of this conflict, or the objectives.. But read & listen to this-

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-putin-authorises-military-operations-donbass-domestic-media-2022-02-24/

"Its goal is to protect people who have been subjected to bullying and genocide... for the last eight years. And for this we will strive for the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine.

Along with using the same Article 51 justification as we use to justify our !wars. In fact Russia used pretty much the same language as was used to justify the invasion and destruction of Yugoslavia, and I really need to bookmark that next time I find it. Pretty sure that was to the UN, but damned if I can find it again..

Lies that are inconsistent with each other are the hallmark of Putin's regime, so I can see where you get your inspiration from.

To paraphrase NWA.. straight outa Kiev. But see-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ld7ppre9vo

as an example, and note that the revision date, but not what changed. 41 became 13, maybe.. Plus if you look at the Bbc's misinformation unit feed at 9:43, there's a story titled "Debunking AI-generated satellite images of Russian airbases", and stating "Here’s a very recent example shared online claiming to be satellite imagery documenting damaged Russian aircraft.. That's an example of nafobots blurring fantasy and reality.

Either way, <10% of Russia's bomber force seems to be a realistic assessment, not 34% or sometimes higher..

And of course, you persist with the biggest and most offensive lie of all - that the Russians are not deliberately and systematically targeting civilians.

Uhuh. And yet far, far fewer civilians have been killed since 2022 that Ukraine managed to kill during their civil war-

https://ukraine.un.org/sites/default/files/2022-02/Conflict-related%20civilian%20casualties%20as%20of%2031%20December%202021%20%28rev%2027%20January%202022%29%20corr%20EN_0.pdf

OHCHR estimates the total number of conflict-related casualties in Ukraine from 14 April 2014 to 31 December 2021 to be 51,000–54,0008: 14,200-14,400 killed (at least 3,404 civilians, estimated 4,400 Ukrainian forces9, and estimated 6,500 members of armed groups10), and 37-39,000 injured (7,000–9,000 civilians, 13,800–14,200 Ukrainian forces11 and 15,800-16,200 members of armed groups.

I find it rather offensive that Ukrainian apologists overlook those figures, the way Ukraine indiscrimately shelled, bombed and dropped mines on their own people.. Especially as this is precisely why this conflct escalated. Especially as Ukraine hasn't stopped doing this, or killing civilians in Kursk, or taking them as hostages. That in itsefl is a war crime, especially when it was done in an attempt to fill Ukraine's prisoner 'exchange fund'.

No that's not helped, plus there is a strange shortage of missile launching aircraft just now.

Nope, I guess not-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg7zy1jq7no

Russia launches 'massive' strikes days after Ukrainian drone attack

And Kiev lost another power station, and maybe another Patriot battery. How could Russia launch 'massive' strikes when the King of Clowns destroyed all of Russia's aircraft? And again, this wasn't even Russia's retaliation, just BAU eliminating Ukraine's drone production, power generation and air defences. This is what Zelensky wants by escalating instead of making serious attempts at peace negotiations.

Day by day, Russian equipment losses degrade the Russian army, and force them to rely more and more on older, less effective equipment, while Ukraine, through their own industries and the industries of the worlds civilised democracies, is steadily upgrading its equipment to be amongst the most modern and capable of any army on the planet.

You truly are delusional if you believe this to be true. Ukraine is littered with the remnants of the latest and greatest NATO kit (ok, sometimes old kit that could be donated in exchange for cash to buy new stuff). Sure, Russia is losing kit as well, but the big difference is Russia seems able to replace it at a far higher rate than we can. Remember those claims from years ago, that Russia would be out of missiles and artillery rounds in only a few weeks? Russia is forced to lob washing machines, and of course the 'orcs with shovels' meme? Three years later, Russia still overmatches Ukraine in every aspect and is (mostly) 1 country vs the combined industrial might of the West.

And the worst thing about your delusion is to paraphrase Sgt Zim, how does Ukraine fight when there's nobody to pull the trigger? The most modern equipment won't help, if Ukraine has nobody left to use it. We can produce weapons in maybe a few months, but it takes 18-19yrs to produce a new soldier. Especially when Ukraine's birth rate has been negative for a long while now. And Ukraine's 'own industries' can't help when those are hit just as fast as Russia can identify them. But Mertz seems to share this delusion, ie his claim that Germany will help Ukraine manufacture LRMs that could be put into service in weeks.. Which trying to pretend that Germany's Taurus missiles were made in Ukraine. Baerbock tried that when Germany got upset about German Panzers in Ukraine again and claimed that once they arrived in Ukraine, they were Ukrainian Panzers. Yeh, right..

Re: Zelenskyy sure seems to hold a lot of cards

Various estimates that I have seen suggest that Russia has taken between 0.6% and 1.0% of Ukrainian territory in the last year, which is instinctively about right. The current Russian advance is an advance, in that you are right, so Ukrainian is getting slightly smaller each day - at the current rate, it will take about 100 years for Russia to achieve it's maximalist objective and annex all of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Russians are about to hit the 1 million casualty mark.

So as usual, you appear to have gotten a few things wrong. Firstly, your casualty estimates seem.. rather high. And you don't mention Ukraine's losses, which is the bigger problem because Russia still seems able to attract recruits, while Ukraine is forced to use snatch squads. Which could become an even bigger problem for Ukraine, if Russia decides to upgrade from an SMO to an ATO, or even declare war. Then Russia can use conscripts and paramiliary units, and about all Ukraine could do is finally lower their conscripton age to include their 18-25 population.

Then you're assuming this is a 'war' of occupation, rather than as stated by Russia at the outset, a 'war' of attrition. Ukraine has actively been helping Russia with this. So as an example Kursk, where Ukraine had much the same result as the last time Nazis invaded Kursk. So maybe 80,000 casualties, 1,000 vehicles destroyed, and they've now lost the potato fields they'd captured at a horrific cost. It may have diverted some Russian forces, but those forces are now pushing into Sumy and have broken through Ukraine's defence lines in a couple of places. Which is a situation that gets repeated all along the front liine. Russia probes, finds weak spots, then forms 'cauldrons', cutting off supply lines. Ukraine then has the choice whether to retreat, stand and fight, or try to reinforce.. And all too often Ukraine's 'leaders' just throw more Ukrainians into the cauldrons. And it does this over and over again.

So Ukraine is helping attrit their own forces. Which is bad, because attrition means removing your opponents ability to fight. Which means once you've succeeded at that, territorial gains become a lot easier. Think of it like a dam developing a leak. The collapse starts slowly, but then all at once. If (when) Ukraine runs out of bodies to throw at the problem, it can't defend against Russian advances... Which is happening, and why Kiev is so desperate to try and get a ceasefire. Which is something Russia will never agree to, especially after Kiev's antics over the last couple of weeks.

So Ukraine did not lie.

20 might be on the high side, but is still less than the originally claimed, or implied 41. They had the videos, they went for the spin, they've been caught in yet another lie. Especially when it did nothing to prevent last night's drone and missile strikes and combined with the bridge strikes, has just invited another escalation.

but do you think that perhaps something might have happened that reduced the number of aircraft available to the Russians for launching missiles at Ukrainian civilians?

Nope. Again last night's strikes that yet again, did not target civilians. Ukraine of course is still lobbing missiles and drones into Russia, often pretty indiscriminately but our media generally glosses over that.

Ukrainian drones hit Engels and Dyagilevo airfields last night - FIRMS is showing a substantial blaze at the fuel depot at Engels, so that strike was undoubtedly effective, with the airbase at Bryansk hit the night before (social media posts from locals reporting massive detonation of ammunition, with visual imagery again confirming an effective strike against a purely military target).

Or missiles.. Whether those strikes were effective remains to be seen, ie if it will slow down Russia's attacks, or just provoke more.

As I have seen said elsewhere, the Ukrainians appear to have decided that they will address air defence by shooting the Archer, not the arrow.

Or just throwing darts at a bear.. Then praying the bear doesn't get mad and swipe back.. It's a strange approach to peace negotations though. Escalating things rarely helps with that.

Re: UAC

I hear that the West's issue on defence is the military Corporations want to sell hugely sophisticated, expensive (& highly-profitable!) equipment, which can sometimes be done as effectively and at 100th of the cost. And we're usually arming ourselves to fight the last war, not the next one.

I think that's profits over pragmatism and we're risking making the same mistakes that Germany did the last time they played war. So focusing on wunderwaffe rather than simpler, easier to produce stuff. Germany built a few complicated & expensive King Tigers, Russia just churned out a lot more and a lot simpler T-34s.

Yes, drones are proving highly effective, so churn out lots of those.. If we can, especially if (when) China bans exports of drone components. But we shouldn't overlook the basics like artillery. Fancy SPGs are great, but expensive and tempting targets. Russia's been criticized for using 'WW2 artillery', but it works, they're easy/cheap to produce and they have a lot of them. Especially when they can also get artillery and ammunition from DPRK that had thousands of guns, and millions of rounds of ammunition. Field guns aren't sexy, but as Russia has demonstrated, they're very effective, especially if you have lots of them.

Also curious if we'll develop heavier artillery like DPRK's Koksan 170mm gun given that outranges our artillery. Plus other basics like mortars & ammunition, or even just small-arms. That gets politically interesting. The history of UK firearms legislation is long and chequered with ideas that having a civilian population with some firearms knowledge could be handy if there was ever a need to consript them. Or just help subsidise the cost of ammunition production by having a customer base. The US has this and can keep production lines churning out millions of rounds of 5.56 or 7.62mm, much of Europe doesn't, so mostly has to sell to military and law enforcement.. who's budgets for ammunition often get cut.

We're living in rather interesting times though.

Re: Zelenskyy sure seems to hold a lot of cards

He's making Putin look the fool on a daily basis, and everyone except those losers sucking Putin's dick are loving it!

Freud would have a field day with some of the fantasies on display here. Especially when the 'losers' are actually the winners at the moment, with Ukraine being 20% smaller and shrinking by the day. The real losers are the nafobots such as yourself that are incapable of seeing the 'reality on the ground'. All Ukraine's novelty pianist is doing is poking the bear harder. It's also showing that Ukraine consistently lies. So-

The trucks reportedly carried prefabricated homes with dummy roofs that were automatically raised to let loose 117 explosives-laden drones that destroyed or damaged a claimed 41 bombers and air radar craft, a score that Russian state media disputes, saying there was damage to "several" aircraft.

Images released by Ukraine show the containers used to launch the drones were nothing like 'sheds', or prefabricated homes. Images release by Ukraine showed drones in those containers, roughly 45 per. If both containers on trucks contained the same number, then around 90 per truck. 5 airfields as targets, so 450 drones. So only a 26% success rate in getting drones into the air. One attack failed completely when the truck exploded on the way, ironically enough to Ukrainka. A bomber base far, far away from Ukraine but presumably picked for its name.

So then 450 drones for 41 'kills' is a 9% success rate. But then people have been crawling all over satellite images, and the best guess is only 12-14 aircraft damaged or destroyed. A 3% success rate. And then Ukraine's SBU released some more images, including one showing a drone trying to hump an A-50 radome. Which revealed a few things that back up the claim that Ukraine greatly exagerated their success, even though they were using FPV drones and had video. The A-50 being drone humped had no engines and the tail removed and on the ground. No idea whether this aircraft was one of the claimed 'kills', but it was obviously not being used, and hadn't flown in a long time. Neither had the one sitting next to it that was also in bad condition.

So then it's how many of the 12-14 aircraft were actually combat capable, and at least 1 kill was just a cargo plane. But Ukraine lied.

And then this happened-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg7zy1jq7no

Russia launched large-scale drone and missile strikes on Ukraine's capital and other parts of the country early on Friday, officials said.

So the King of Clowns.. I mean Drones stunt obviously has done little to prevent Russia striking Ukraine, including this time targets in the far west of the country. And this probably wasn't the retaliatory strike people are expecting, and Ukraine has provoked by their attacks on railways, and Russia's nuclear triad. And Ukraine's escalation has obviously pissed off Putin, who talked about terrorism and there being no point trying to negotiate with terrorists. Which could mean Russia formalising that, and upgrading their SMO to an ATO. And you don't negotiate with terrorists, you eliminate them*. Which might be why Zelensky was looking rather stressed in his videos yesterday.

And now-

"In particular, we have obtained comprehensive information about individuals directly involved in servicing Russian strategic aviation. The result will obviously be noticeable both on the ground and in the sky."

Which sounds like a not very veiled threat that Ukraine might conduct more assassinations in Russia against the people they've been able to identify in this hack. And if they do, it'll just give Russia more excuses to treat the Kiev regime as terrorists, and deal with them accordingly. Blowback can be a real bitch, especially if Russia waits for Zelensky to return to Kiev and drops an Oreshnik on his palace. Which might not result in a successful decapitation, but would be symbolic and maybe satisfies Russia's need to retaliate and send a strong message.

*Unless they're Syrian al-qaeda people, in which case you give them our money because they wear a suit now, and have obviously reformed.. Right?

Re: Zelenskyy sure seems to hold a lot of cards

Why add further night soil to the Jellied Eel moniker?

You called!

It greatly amuses me when the deluded think I post using alts, or as an anonymuppet. I've said it before, and I'll say it again.. I don't do that. Unlike many, I'm not afraid to put my (pseudo)name to my words. It also amuses me that I've become a bit of a Voldemort to those that are incapable of distinguishing fact from fiction.

UK bets big (and small) on nuclear as datacenter demand expected to climb

Re: Rolls Royce

These restrictions on highly enriched uranium by the way are among the many reasons why talk about Rolls Royce SMRs being "submarine reactors" are silly. The SMRs use standard commercial fuel (around 3 - 4%), not the bomb grade material (over 90%) used in UK submarines. There are some proposed micro-SMRs which would use 20% fuel (the limit for "civil" use), but all of the SMRs which are actually finding serious buyers (300 MW to 470 MW) use standard commercial fuel of the same enrichment levels as used by larger ones.

I think RR & SMRs are just a handy min-max example. So naval reactors being at one end of the scale, the big 1GW+ units at the other, and the SMRs sitting in between. Then RR being the only company to have built new reactors in the last decade or more and have the technology and skills to obviously build compact & safe reactors. Then news like the proposed RR PWR3 having 30% fewer parts than PWR2. I have no idea how much of the technology and principles of SMR design could be taken from their naval reactors given their sensitivity and US involvement.

But the biggest benefit to me looks like the concept that SMRs can be easily manufactured, transported and brought into service than large NPPs. So less need to slow things down with paperwork, if they can be built from modular, pre-approved elements. Someone wants to make a lot of AI pron? No problem, just add another 300MW core. Which I guess could also make it easier to charge speculative bit-barn builders for the cost of adding generating capacity.

The RR PWR's may not be the latest and greatest, but that seems to be an old problem with governments and nuclear, ie picking winners. At least PWRs are proven, and maybe don't have as many of the supply-chain risks that prismatics, pebble beds etc do. Plus some interesting news on that, eg China banning exports of samarium which is handy in reactors, and China currently has pretty much 100% of the market. Currently. It being one of those rare earths that isn't that rare. Then commonality around the fuel cycle, so standardise on 5, 10, 20% enrichment and a common size/shape fuel pellet and pack fuel rods for S/M/L reactors and call it good. Or good enough.

I also wonder how much our rather unsettled geopolitics will affect treaties, especially when some countries like Israel pretty much ignore those, and there's a queue of hostile and not so hostile nations looking at nuclear. US, Russia and Iran negotiating to try and limit Iran's nuclear ambitions, Israel looking to bomb Iran. Then Israel sending some of their Patriots to Ukraine, which might mean Russia's disinclined to help Israel's interests. Downside to sanctions is they force self-sufficiency and new alliances, like technology sharing agreements Russia has with China, Iran, DPRK etc. We cry foul, but then so has China with the AUKUS deal.. Which could be interesting wrt the "submarine loophole". US altered the deal so America sells their Virginias first, and then maybe closes the loophole when we're working on the UK/Australia Astute replacement. Hey, Australia, don't buy those, just buy more Virginias..

Re: Coal

Can't we just re-open the coal mines?

Works well in China and India.

For some reason best known to Ed Millibrain's Climate Change Act, the government prefers to import coking coal to make steel from Australia instead of creating jobs and supply security by mining it in the UK. Much the same with gas and oil. North sea still has plenty of that, still needs gas for when the wind doesn't blow, the sun doesn't shine and the reactors aren't ready yet.

Re: Rolls Royce

I'd not appreciated just how enriched the UK sub fuel actually is. Very similar to the SL-1 reactor fuel. 90+% enriched.

It makes sense as you have a very small core.

It's one of those things that's always amazed me, and puzzled me why neo-luddites are so opposed to energy efficiency. So one of my favorite XKCDs-

https://xkcd.com/1162/

Along with as a kid, visiting an NPP, seeing the reactor hall and thinking it wasn't very big. Then seeing the control room and temp displays and being disappointed it wasn't thousands of degress, like the movies showed. Then later dating a nuclear engineer who gave me one of her 'Neutron Wrangler' t-shirts which I think I still have somewhere.

And then pondering that naval reactors must be pretty small to fit them inside a relatively small tube, especially when said tube also had to contain big torpedoes, crew, and the crew being no stranger for the effects of living in close proximity to a reactor than normal for submariners. And then thinking the reactors must be pretty good, if a dustbin sized core can be installed with a lifetimes supply of fuel.

If only cars could do that.

Plus RR must know what they're doing and can take things learned from naval reactors and put them into civil designs. So assuming submarines don't need full output while skulking around the oceans, and can spend some of their life hooked up to shore power. But still demostrates how much potential energy can be squeezed out of a small amount of fuel. Which I guess gets interesting if SMRs might try to load-follow or run at optimum efficiency 24x7x365 and how that would fit with our current rigged market and priority to 'renewables. And the fuel cycle stuff, so presumably that's also optimised around cost of extraction, refining and enriching to high levels needing more energy.

But it's also been interesting seeing that Czechia contracting with S.Korea and paying them much less than we're being charged for EDF's older, but presumably haute cuisine design. Anyone who's been to a restaurant knows that labelling things in French at least triples the price.

Re: Wrong bet

Don't believe the hype and PR bullshit. Remember too the usual procedure when touting for government contracts: submit a low-ball bid to get the work and then pile on extra zillions for "unforeseen costs", "contract changes", etc once it's too late to choose an alternative or cancel the project.

Just because double glazing.. I mean 'Renewables' sales scum do that, it doesn't mean everyone else does. So bidding £43/MWh in CfD auctions, which allowed Starmer and the malignant cluster of cells in the bottom of his cabinet to claim that wind was 9x cheaper than gas! Of course this was before gas prices fell, and err.. after the wind farmers decided they couldn't actually deliver at the price they contracted to, demanded $180+ per MWh, or around 4-5x more expensive than gas and then finally cancelled those projects.

Spain's 'renewables' induced blackout may have given HMG an unpleasent taste of things to come, along with the UK's ever decreasing capacity margins, costs and increasing elecricity bills.

Re: Sizewell C should be cheaper given the lessons learned etc.

BTW, EDF using the same design for Sizewell C that they used for another 3-4 reactors. All of these are wildly over budget and taking far longer than estimated to build. IIUC none are generating electricity yet, 10+ years after construction started.

UDUC. Taishan 1 & 2 went operational in 2018 & 2019, Olkiluoto in 2023, Flamanville is slowly powering up.

Who was it that said insanity was doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result?

Me probably. Or maybe Ed Millibrain..

"Why have the lights gone out?"

"No wind Ed"

"Well make it blow!"

"Weather doesn't work like that Ed, and global warming predicted a reduction in wind speed"

"Well turn on the solar then!"

"But it's dark Ed"

Sanity would be assuming (hoping) we'd learned something from the previous EPR builds and won't make the same mistakes again. Insanity would be forcing us to waste billions on pre-Industrial technology and expecting different results. Even the angry doom goblin on her 'sailing yacht' to Gaza knew they'd have to use the diesel engines to get there before they had to eat both packets of rice.

Re: Rolls Royce

But the trouble with 'small' reactors such as the rolls-royce PWRs as I understand, is that they require high-enriched uranium, which is a proliferation issue and regulatory headache.

As I understand it, this is why there's been delays rather than just using the same SMRs as we've been installing in our Astutes. So the SMR is designed to run on low, rather than high-enriched uranium. Which still leaves the usual nuclear challeng of how to feed & care for your reactors and run them off a mostly standardised fuel. Then economies of scale processing and re-processing fuel for the entire fleet, large or small. Or take a typical approciate to regulatory burdens and ignore them. Currently we're signed up to treaties limiting enrichment, but if other countries are ignoring those, why shouldn't we? After all, HEU has more energy potential than LEU, and this time, we aren't going to divert fuel to make more bombs. Honest.

On the larger scale, the government has announced a £14.2 billion ($19.2 billion) investment to START TO build the Sizewell C nuclear power plant, as we all know the final cost will be around 71 Billion!

It's still a lot less than we've wasted tilting at windmills. A lot will depend on whether the goverment has written a decent contract to make the Sizewell consortium liable for cost overruns though. In theory, given Hinkley's costs were inflated to bail out EDF and pretend it was a new, FOAK design, Sizewell C should be cheaper given the lessons learned etc.

Ukrainians smuggle drones hidden in cabins on trucks to strike Russian airfields

Re: Ukraine did

Which as we have already discussed is an allegation from the Russians who have provided not a single shred of evidence that the Ukrainians were responsible (so therefore probably a lie), whereas there is a credible mechanism of failure caused by repeated overloading and lack of maintenance, leading finally to collapse under heavy load, the last part of which is proven by the visual evidence of trucks on the bridge at the time of failure.

Whatever you're smoking, you should probably stop now. Trucks on a bridge is proof of repeated overloading? Wow! You better tell the press and the US Transport Secretary to ban all lorries from bridges because every road bridge that isn't closed to cars is about to suffer spontaneous and simultaneous structural failure. It was the excessive movement of strawmen that broke the bridge's backs! Multiple bridges, all close to expected Russian axes of attack, and all at the same time.

But Russia has since reported they've found traces of explosives, Russia has declared it a terrorist attack, and it was mentioned during the Trump-Putin call. Which prompted an uncharacteristicly subdued tweet from Trump that didn't include the overuse of caps. Just that there were no prospects for peace any time soon, Putin is rather unhappy and Ukraine can expect an official response to Russia. So basically Kiev have made their own bed, and now they get to lie in it. Another excuse for the US to walk away and claim that Ukraine is out of control.

Re: Ukraine did

So stop trying to claim that Ukraine used "a civilian as an unwilling suicide bomber". It's not true.

There's been a lot of 'reports' and many, many claims. I thnk the basic principle remains. Civilians were unwillingly or unknowingly roped into these attacks, and placed at risk. One claim I've seen suggested a police officer was killed when they looked inside a truck, or there was the failed attack where the truck blew up or burned on the way to the target. That that happened seems reliable, whether the driver was killed or injured hasn't been confirmed.

What is more certain is that Ukraine dropped a bridge on a train, killing and injuring multiple civilians. Whether that was intentional or not isn't clear, ie it may just have been bad luck that the train was hit. But Russia is treating that as a terrorist attack, along with the other bridge & rail attacks. It could be argued those were legitimate dual-use targets, but that doesn't really matter when it comes to Russia responding to that escalation. Especially given the timing.

Re: To quote a fictional

I know you don't like Ukraine. But you are perfectly capable of understanding basic english.

I actually have nothing against Ukraine, or the ordinary Ukrainian, especially the ones who are being press-ganged into this conflict. But I do have a lot of contempt for the Ukrainian government, especially the Banderite/Right Sector & ultra-nationalist elements that are prolonging this conflict, and getting Ukrainianns killed.

I've also jumped to the Ukraine hack attack thread with some thoughts, so maybe switch to that topic?

Ukraine said after the attacks that they hit 41 aircraft. After doing battle damage assesment the next day, they say they think they destroyed 13 aircraft.

This means they damaged 41 and think they destroyed at least 13 of those. This really isn't complicated. I've seen visual confirmation of 10, from just two of the airfields - so it could be an under-estimate.

Maybe, and I go into that in the other thread. But the implication has been that 'hit' means 'destroyed' and did little to correct that, especially given the use of FPV drones and availabilty of video. That should have allowed Ukraine to release more realistic BDA rather than the '41 aircraft' PR release. Plus if you've seen the video of the drone humping the scrap A-50's radome, they could probably have claimed they 'hit' that one multiple times. Also interesting the way the video flipped from armed to disarmed and there's been some speculation that Russia had some jamming/EWAR going on at the time. Also some suggestions that Ukraine might have deliberately avoided hitting Tu-160s, possibly because those are primarily nuclear bombers and haven't really been used to hit Ukraine. Yet.

B-21 is definitely not theorycraft. It's in low-rate production.

That's a bit of semantics and much like the Su-57 'delays'. The B-21's stil in test, and isn't in production. Again much like Su-57, it'll be interesting to see if the B-21 gets any export orders, or there'll be a general rethink about the need for strategic bombers. It might make sense for Australia given they're far from anywhere that might turn hostile. Like China, or err.. New Zealand?

I'm not sure I buy Russia's claims about Su57 being in full production yet - I guess we'll find out if they start shipping the promised ones to Algeria. They've not really turned up anywhere or been seen doing anything much.

There have been images and video claiming new aircraft rolling off the production line. Russia does appear to have used them a few times in Ukraine, but that's probably much like Israel and their F-35s, ie limit their use to avoid giving too much away about their actual capability. Kind of like Israel and other F-35s flying with radar reflectors to stop Russian radars getting a good look at their stealth characteristics. I'd also expect Russia to put export orders on hold (if they can) given the current political situation, but it does appear to be in production.

Finally, Ukraine's air force is no threat to Russia. Their AWACS and F-16s are mostly for missile defence. Which means the AWACS can sit quite a long way behind the front lines

But that's hard for Ukraine to do, ie much of it is rather close to Russian airspace, especially if they could also go AWACs hunting from airfields in Belarus. But it is a prime target and getting a long way from the front lines might mean the only safe space is near the Romania border where it wouldn't be much use other than surveilling the Black Sea.. And then also vulnerable to strikes launched from Crimea. There's a fun YT channel called 'Grim Reapers' where they simulated this kind of attack-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXyvXnYDEM4

Not entirely realistic, but they killed it. It simulated trying to defend the AWACs, which failed, but also cheated a bit by assuming NATO intervention that helped them kill more Russian aircraft. The basic idea is sound I think, ie Russia will know where Ukraine's GBAD is, so could potentially avoid it.. especially if Ukraine lost another Patriot last night. Video shows GBAD launching 4 interceptors, but then an incoming missile coming in on pretty much the same vector with what looked like secondary detonations.

Maybe Ukraine could try and gain temporary air superiority at a particular point in the front line for some operation or other? But that's risky, and if they try to do anything more the Russians will make mincemeat of them.

I doubt it. I think there were some attempts at air support around the Kursk misadventure, but Ukraine just doesn't have enough aircraft vs Russia, and all the air defences. Ukraine apparently launched more Neptunes against Russia last night, Russia claims to have shot them all down. I think the risk is more the reverse. So Russia gains air superiority by continuing to eliminate Ukraine's air defences, or just drain them of interceptors. Then it could (or could have) used strategic bombers to drop more FAB glide bombs, or even dumb bombs on Ukraine's defence lines.

Which is also back to the logistics challenge. Russia is producing more aircraft, missiles and ammunition than we're capable of. Which is the political challenge and demonstrates how short-sighted our 'leaders' were. Russia knew this conflict was coming, ie the Minsk masquerade and prepared for it. Our politicians presumably assumed (or hoped) that Russia wouldn't respond to Ukraine's attempt to recapture Donbas & Crimea, or assumed that their 'shock & awe' sanctions would actually work.. Which they obviously didn't.

(ps.. you got a thumbs up from me for debating constructively. I reserve thumbs down for those that don't.. )

Re: To quote a fictional

Russia uses its Bears pretty heavily. They, and the Backfires, are one of the main vehicles for lobbing cruise missiles into Ukraine. They've got other aircraft to do the same job, although the bigger missiles won't fit on the fighter aircraft. Aren't they using old stocks of things like AS-4s (which maybe only the Backfires can carry)? Anyway, some aircraft's got to do it. Everyone's racking-up the airframe hours and maintenance in a war - so you want to spread out the wear-and-tear over the largest fleet you can. Lest chunks of your fleet age out.

But are they? I really don't think Russia has been using their Bears much, again primarily because it's USP is launching the Kh-101, which it probably launched more in Syria than in Ukraine. And the Kh-101's only real advantage is it's range, plus the range of the launch aircraft, which Russia doesn't really need because all of Ukraine is in range of other ALCMs, ship, submarine or ground launch systems, ie the AS-3/400 and Bastion complexes can also launch cruise missiles. Russia, like NATO has been standardising missile designs to fit standardised launch systems like the Aster can fit into ship or ground systems. So the Sylver VLS, available in lengths from 3.5-7m, so pick & mix SAM, ASM or land attack missiles, pick loadout in your FCS and call it good. Oh, and also fits inside a 'stealth' shipping container.

Kh-22's have been used more frequently than maybe from Tu-22s.. But much like the Kh-101, a fairly old (but updated) missile. Ukraine appears to have had much less success intercepting Kh-22s than Kh-101 and part of Russia's strategic planning will be looking at what works, what doesn't and deciding where to focus their spending. Tu-95's were already planned to be replaced by Tu-160s, or maybe PAK-DA, or maybe something completely different as a bomb truck that can carry their best hypersonic ALCMs and a bellyfull of FABs.. Which is something Russia has been using a lot off, but mostly from aircraft like Su-35s because launch speed makes glide bombs fly further.

Ukraine said they hit 41 aircraft. They're now claiming they destroyed 13. That doesn't seem unreasonable.

It also means they lied, and they shouldn't have given they used FPV drones and realised some video. Why they didn't do that for each airfield hit just allows speculation, so maybe the only released the 'best' footage and didn't release footage showing hits on transport aircraft, or aircraft being cannibalised for spares. Which is then back to any strategic or tactical benefit from this operation. So 41 becomes 13, and some of those 13 might not have been usable. How many strategic bombers does Russia actually now have that are flight ready, and could be loaded up with their max payload of Kh-101 (or Kh-102) and used in an upcoming retaliatory strike?

That is sadly inevitable, and celebrations might be a little premature, until Ukraine has survived that. Either way, thanks to Ukraine's insane escalation, more Ukrainians are going to die.

What's your metric here? Is Russia better than Europe because it might be able to produce bombers? I could counter that Europe is richer, because it doesn't.

Kind of. It's arguable that Russia is better than Europe (or the West) because Russia is producing more for much less. Their defence budget is a fraction of ours, and they haven't really moved to a war footing/war economy yet. Europe is about to become poorer because we're starting another arms race, and as Rutte said, cut benefits & social spending, give NATO and arms dealers your money instead. Which is also back to peace dividends. If our 'leaders' got serious about peace, the killing would stop, trade could be restored and the EU & Russia could get back to business and profits. The EU economy might again exceed the US, but we can't be having that now, can we?

I'll believe the Tu160 when I see it - and the Su57 is looking a bit stalled out too - like they need more customers to get the budget to do it, and India weren't interested.

https://theaviationist.com/2022/01/12/first-completely-new-tu-160m/

The aircraft that first flew on Jan. 12, 2022 is the first newly build airframe under a contract with the Ministry of Industry and Trade out of ten advanced Tu-160M2 aircraft which will be produced for the Russian Aerospace Forces.

Which might be wrong and there's been speculation that it wasn't actually a new airframe.. And more have appeared since. The Su-57 also doesn't seem to have been stalled. It had been delayed while waiting for new engines and other changes. So Su-57 is now Su-57m, is in serial production and now with each engine gaining an extra 2 tonnes of thrust. And each engine produces almost as much as the F-35's single engine, and the F-35's been putting on weight. So maybe Russia will get export orders.

Meanwhile Europe are producing the Gripen, Rafale and Eurofighter, A400M and A330MRTT and the SAAB AWACs aircraft. Russia have theoretical programs for some of those support aircraft, but none producing anything yet. The US can't make more B1s, because they're replacing all of those with B21 stealth bombers - in large numbers. Europe will have a flying demonstrator for the GCAP/Tempest next year or 2027 - which is the large multi-role you'd like - and it'll have stealth and range.

So the GCAP & B-21 are theorycraft, Russia is busily churning out maybe 3-4 Su-35s a month, and produces their own transport aircraft. As for the SAAB? The introduction of the ones donated to Ukraine might have been delayed due to Russia boming Ukraine's training college. Russia hasn't yet announced the bounty they'll pay for downing the aircraft, but there might be Su-57s itching for a chance for their R-77Ms to collect.

Which is another one of those strategic planning questions. An AWACS is a juicy target but very visible. If you've got a large airforce, you might have enough fighters and refuelling aircraft to screen it and stop it being shot down.. But Ukraine doesn't have that. So Ukraine's SAAB detects an incoming missile swarm. Yey! How many of their dozen or less F-16s stay to defend the AWACs, and how many are used to defend Kiev, or the other cities that might be the targets? That's assuming satellites don't find them first and they're destroyed on the ground. Maybe AWACS doesn't fit into Russia's planning, maybe if it does, they produce their own business jets like the SAAB 340 and produce their own version.

Similary with Russia, given what's happened in Ukraine, you'd have to be stupid to not worry Russia will have a go at the Baltic States, if it thinks we can't defend them. So we should either arm up, or kick them out of NATO and admit we don't care.

Sad thing is we probably don't care. Most of the Baltic States are sound and fury signifying pretty much nothing, other than being tripwires. Estonia's turned very xenophobic, but isn't really a threat to Russia unless it carries on trying to hijack ships. Or Lithuania decides to have a go at invading Kaliningrad. The Finns are currently whining about Russia increasing security on their border, but Finland decided to end it's neutrality and close that border, so what do they expect? They aren't currently really a threat to Russia, unless they decide to try and blockade it, so why would Russia bother? Plus there's also the cognitive dissonance. Russia would take Ukraine in only 3-days per Milley, yet 3yrs later and they haven't even managed to capture Ukraine.. So are they really the existential, expansionist threat the arms dealers make them out to be?

(Also in other news, there's still the issue of drones/UAVs. I saw a video yesterday of a Russian drone following a Ukrainian 'Baba Yaga' back to its operator. Then one drone killed the Baba Yaga while another flew into the vehicle waiting to collect it. This I thought interesting because it was drone v drone, plus a situational awareness problem. Neither the Baba Yaga nor the operator would have known it was being followed due to limited FoV, and the operator's attention perhaps being too focused on the FPV screen.)

Re: Ukraine did

Just adding this here because it's rather relevant to the actual events, possible outcomes and some responses were memory holed while I was composing it..

Or, given the evidence, the same person under an alt.

Uhuh. And all the people sh*tposting are the same person, probably under a bridge.. right? Or you really don't understand evidence, or things like lexical analysys because if you did, you'd quickly realise we're not the same person. Same principles apply to figuring out who's decided to flip to AC posting because some 'contributors' posting style can be rather distinctive.

Note that elsewhere Jellied references mocking people over the alleged meaning of "SMO"

It's pretty easy to mock people who don't understand some very basic, but important distinctions. And if they can't grasp that, there's little chance they understand any of the politics around this conflict. So they'll believe this is a war, 2022 was a 'full scale invasion'. Repeat a lie often enough and idiots believe it. They don't stop and think that Russia only committed a small fraction of their forces to their 'full scale invasion'.. Which was really a show of force that worked, drew forces Ukraine had built up in preparation for their own 'full scale invasion' of Donbas, and got Kiev to the negotiating table in Istanbul. Then, much as with Minsk, Kiev was offered billions if they'd just fight Russia instead. And no need for receipts.

But picking on another !War. So a while back, there was a 10 week special military operation against Argentina, commonly known as the 'Falklands War'. Except the UK never declared war, so it wasn't. See also-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Undeclared_war

There is no specific format required under United States law for the way an official war declaration will be structured or delivered. The United States Constitution states: "The Congress shall have Power […] To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water"

So the US hasn't fought a war since 1942 and WW2. Which might suprise you, but that's just politics. It's fought many 'wars' since then, but if you don't actually declare one, you don't need to bother getting Congressional approval, or oversight. As Clauswitz famously said, war is foreign policy by other means. Foreign policy is an Executive, not Legislative function, so bombs away! But the US also has other related laws, like the Logan Act-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logan_Act

The Logan Act (1 Stat. 613, 18 U.S.C. § 953,) is a United States federal law that criminalizes the negotiation of a dispute between the United States and a foreign government by an unauthorized American citizen. It is intended to prevent unauthorized negotiations from undermining the U.S. government's position.

Which is still on the US statute books, but hasn't been enforced since 1852, although there have been some rulings, like this-

[T]he President alone has the power to speak or listen as a representative of the nation. He makes treaties with the advice and consent of the Senate, but he alone negotiates. Into the field of negotiation, the Senate cannot intrude; and Congress itself is powerless to invade it. As Marshall said in his great argument of March 7, 1800, in the House of Representatives, 'The President is the sole organ of the nation in its external relations, and its sole representative with foreign nations.'

Yet for some reason, a simple Senator, Lindsay Graham has spent a lot of time (and taxpayers money) flying to Kiev and meeting with their head of state. But in order to avoid violating the Logan Act, presumably they only discussed the weather, football, piano playing and absolutely not embagoes or grape-crushing sanctions, because those are policy matters. Kellog can, because he's a special envoy and thus authorised to act on behalf of the President.

But I digress. So currenly there is no legally defined war between Ukraine and Russia. Russia is bound by their Constitution, just as the US, UK, EU etc are. None of the beligerents in this conflict have declared war, even though it might look & feel like a 'war'. In fact only one country has briefly declared war-

https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/germany-accuses-russia-of-twisting-baerbocks-war-comments-for-propaganda/

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock riled Moscow with comments at an event in Strasbourg on Tuesday, when, speaking in English, she said that "we are fighting a war against Russia, and not against each other".

Which was quickly walked back because despite being Germany's Foreign Minister, declaring war is the German Chancellor's job.. But also why the correct use of language is important to prevent accidental declarations of war. Putin sees her comment, challenge accepted! and nukes Berlin.. Especially given if a war between NATO and Russia is initiated, it's rather time sensitive. Which is especially true now a NATO-adjacent state has launched a large attack against Russia's nuclear triad.. And this fired up again yesterday-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UVB-76

with some cryptic messages, and may or may not be part of Russia's 'Dead Hand' system that can automatically launch Russia's nuclear missiles at whatever they were last aimed at. Or it could be a variation on a numbers station and is messaging Russian agents in Ukraine, or elsewhere. We're living in interesting times, thanks to the Kiev clown and his antics. See also-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2r108l785o

Speaking after a phone call with the Russian president, Trump said: "President Putin did say, and very strongly, that he will have to respond to the recent attack on the airfields."

Or as Medvedev put it "Our Army is pushing forward and will continue to advance. Everything that needs to be blown up will be blown up, and those who must be eliminated will be.". I really don't fancy Zelensky's odds of a happy retirement given his claimed involvement and oversight of the attacks on Russia. Maybe Russia has decided that it's past time Ukraine had a new President and government.

Re: Ukraine did

"Special military operation" is nothing more than a made-up propagandistic term. As such, it's meaningless- or in your case, disingenuous- to argue as if there's any established and accepted meaning to judge against.

Except it's defined in Russian law. As is the more traditional 'war'. But on that point

Falklands War

Gulf War (parts 1 and 2)

War on Terror

Afghanistan War

War in Syria

Yugoslav War

Which of those were.. actually accompanied by any formal declaration of war? Sadly wars just aint what the used to be, especially when combined with doctrines like 'pre-emptive self-defence' that can be used to justify killing or displacing millions with a lot less paperwork or legal oversight. So if we can practice that kind of lawfare, why can't Russia? You don't think that might be just a tad hypocritical?