Posts by Paul Graham 2 publicly visible posts • joined 6 Aug 2008
.... if Jack Nicolson had died after his outing as The Joker they would have said the same thing then. I remember thinking at the time that Jack would be nigh on impossible to top. Arguably he hasn't been topped, instead they took the Joker in a different, darker direction. Who's to say it couldn't happen again. The internet has a lot to answer for.
Actually, "low probability high impact" events can be hard to predict. If you recall the floods in the South of France several years ago, they were due to quite localised weather conditions. At the time the predictive model for the weather over the next day did not show this, and so they were totally unprepared. A few years later they had more compute power so could up the resolution of the grid used in the predictive model, and they revisited the data. The new higher resolution correctly predicted the localised conditions, and if it had been available at the time, some warning could have been given. So there you go.
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