* Posts by Dimitris Vayenas

3 posts • joined 15 Apr 2007

Original thinking in a derivatives market

Dimitris Vayenas


1. The NY Times were reporting a couple of weeks ago (I think it was the 28/8) that this year, it will be the first year since 1950 (aka the time that the stats of the sort were recorded) that the price of the real estate in america will be falling. (I assume with the exception of Manhattan and Palm Beach where the limited space guarantees the value).

It appears that the speed of changing/moving into houses is lower than the available real estate, and G*d knows why? Is it because we got sick of moving around, is it because we telecommute, is it because we enjoy reading about the rise in the value of (our own?) properties... this is a fact.

2. Before the crisis the Fed was likely to increase the interest rates. That would have meant that capital would have moved from the markets to the bank coffers. Now, if you are a bank (that invests in the stock market as well... ) what would have been your pick? To pay higher interest rates to an even larger whole and a declining market or to pay low interest rates and have a steady-yuppie (upwardly mobile) market?

Of course you would go for the second gents... and you dont have to be a risk analysis expert and/or an Eaton graduate for that reason... ;)

I dont know what you make of this but I am a mere charterd engineer so I am happy to give my bet for the future in somebody elses field of expertise, with the ease that I bet Olympiacos Piraeus will make it through in the next leg of the Champions League:

1. We have seen just the beginning of the crisis.

2. Some Real estate funded funds will have to shrink in order to increase once more the speed of movement of capital, that gives life in to our system.

3. We may not see a collapse in the form of the 1920's (well... a third of our population never left that state since then) but we shall see some crisis.

4. The price of oil will fall. Putin's men have to win the elections over there in a couple of months and need some help till then.

Enough said...

Operating systems are old and busted

Dimitris Vayenas

Gosh... Josh

You said it all. [Y]

Vendors oversell Business Intelligence (now there's a surprise)

Dimitris Vayenas

IEE Recommendations - IT Evolution

One has also to consider that the role of IT is changing.

IT Departments should transform themselves to be more business - even to bring income to the company to self-fund themselves.

Thus I dont quite get why the vendors targeting should impact the progress on this field, particularly if you are working in a company that both worlds (Business and IT) co-exist in each department.

After all BI is about to help in this sort of evolution afterall.


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