Re: you focus on EVs were you can
I did the calculations in 2019 based on 15 years of previous receipts and records for a variety of cars I had over that time.
At that time the lease of a new BEV cost me the same as running ICE vehicles from 80k-150k miles old.
The prices have shifted in my favour over the last couple of years. Diesel has gone from £1.10 to whatever it is now - £1.90 (https://www.rac.co.uk/drive/advice/fuel-watch/), electricity prices have moved a bit, but make up a very small portion of my costs - and off peak is still available cheaply.
I readily admit that the leases offered by motability are below market rates, but:
- Assuming a generous 38mpg in the ICE (reality was 36/37)
- Assuming a stingy 3.8kWh/m for the BEV (reality is 3.9-4.1)
- Assuming 10% BEV miles are on DC charging at 55p/kWh
Then at 2019 prices 12k/year was the point at which costs were even.
At 2022 prices (fuel £1.90 rather than £1.10 - ignoring inflation) that distance is just 5k miles.
If I do 10k a year, then the lease would have to be 25% more expensive to match the cost of an old ICE vehicle. If I do 12k/year (what my MOTs recorded for the decade leading up to the switch) then the lease could be 40% more expensive.
"Buying an older EV is taking a gamble with the battery life degradation curve"
As opposed to the gamble with ICE vehicles and all the things that go wrong with them?
Battery degradation is actually well characterised, gradual, and observable - you get a few miles less max range than you used to, you don't get stranded road side with no warning.
EV batteries generally will come with 8 year/100-150k mile warranty - double that of a typical ICE warranty. I'd be more worried about a cam belt failure, or a head gasket failure, or a gear box failure, or any of the other myriad of failures that can strand an ICE vehicle with little to no warning, not the battery pack.