* Posts by Andrew Smith

1 publicly visible post • joined 27 Dec 2007

Cloudy outlook for climate models

Andrew Smith
Stop

models 1, Douglass et al 0, after extra time

Sadly for Douglass et al, and for Anton Wylie, the paper was demolished within a couple of days of being published, and two weeks before The Register reported on it. The paper's authors make several significant mistakes, the key one being introducing an invalid divisor for the standard error of the models, which falsely narrows the confidence intervals around the models' predictions. From there, the claim that reality falls outside the models' predictions, collapses.

There's more discussion by climate scientists of the paper, at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/12/tropical-troposphere-trends/

So I don't think the BBC will be updating its page, as its statement is accurate: Within the uncertainties of the data, there is no discrepancy. The models have been successfully tested, and anthropogenic global warming is, regrettably, still very much with us. Climate science is indeed far from over, but the question of whether there is man-made global warming has been resolved in the positive, with overwhelming scientific evidence.