Re: Disagree
The first problem is that RISC-V is now operating from a neutral third country. ITAR and similar laws can restrict what crosses American borders but can't regulate what crosses Swiss borders.
In consequence, restrictions on US companies will force those companies to fork RISC-V, as they won't be able to export their changes, or to not use RISC-V at all. There's no other way around d it. Since the US market is small, globally-speakings, non-US developers are unlikely to make use of USian-only modifications. No sense spending more to sell to less.
The second problem is that the authorised rest of the world won't buy US RISC-V chips because the export regulations will create extra bureaucracy, extra costs, and extra restrictions. Companies will buy from suppliers who don't add all the extra burdens.
That means the US companies will have fewer customers, so prices will need to be higher, which will limit uptake in the US as well. It could well be that the only customers will be the US government, as the USG is restricted on its use of foreign companies.
The third problem is RISC-V is open source, which means China will already have the code and will be able to clean-room implement anything the US adds that looks interesting.
Indeed, so will the rest of the world, and US regulations won't cover features cloned by European companies.
The fourth problem is that militaries don't generally use the latest and greatest. They prefer tried and tested technology, because there's nothing worse than a buggy CPU in a missile or an aircraft. What's more, milspec-ing a CPU is hard. Protection against heat extremes, radiation, and shock require a lot of R&D.
Typically, the CPUs intended for such use will be old designs where the hardening has been accomplished and all the defects are ironed out. Hot patching a CPU with microcode in a fighter at 50,000 feet isn't really desirable.
And then the system has to be built around it, tested, verified, and finally actually turned into something that cam be mass produced.
This means that China's military is very unlikely to be using any US changes for at least a decade, maybe two. It's a very significant lead time.
The extra time required to either steal some else's hardened design or to reverse-engineer's it independently is negligible in the process, so you have to assume China will do one or the other.
Finally, this reminds me a lot of the debate around strong cryptography. Keeping the algorithms secret didn't help in any way. Rather, it led yo inferior communication and thus inferior designs with easy to exploit flaws. Security through obscurity was a disaster. The strongest algorithms are widely known and widely studied. Yes, that means hostile nations can use them too, but it's far more important that hostile nations be kept out of what friendly nations are doing.
This isn't a joke. If the US relies on security through obscurity for their RISC-V changes, it pretty much guarantees that there will be defects. Intel is no novice, but there hasn't been a generation of CPU since the Pentium (which had a serious FPU defect) that hasn't had serious bugs.
Security through obscurity is a very dangerous strategy. As I said earlier, you can't patch a CPU with new microcode at 50,000 feet.
No, I see absolutely no advantages to secrecy in this. Especially for the military.