Posts by Timop 72 publicly visible posts • joined 3 Dec 2022
It keeps baffling me that with the state of engineering ability and material science know-how in 2024 hampering repairability would somehow translate into even thinner devices.
They probably use something like $100k+ jigs per assembly station in production to glue the things together that could also be cleverly designed assembly. Which would mean one could replace single part and not the only available module that "coincidentally" has all the expensive parts bundled in it. Like touch screen stuff for smartphones and soldering ram + SSD to laptops...
But on an other hand chasing as high revenues and profits ever possible would require the hampering repairability -part to be done as fully as possible....
The best receipe for disaster projects usually is to not do the basics correctly. The easiest way to stack things in a way that no matter what talented individuals do everyone is doomed.
I've seen in industrial engineering projects that some principles similar to be found in agile manifesto are easily available but the management struggles to understand them and that is why someone simplifies the idea into lifecack with zero context that they are able to follow blindly. What could (not) go wrong?
What we know about complex projects (for example oasis of the seas cruise ship) is that you can have easily 1000 different companies working their own thing without significant issues as long as majority of basic things are done correctly from the beginning of the project until it finishes and there is enough resources to manage surprises and there is handful of people who know 24/7 what the status is with everything so they can check the big picture in under 30 minutes easily.
Just find a spot where a puddle can be formed. Then all you need is salt water and couple months time (reaction speed depends on temperature) and the sheet might have already tiny spot rusted through and any time water is introduced corrosion continues.
It is good that my car has assisted parking because it is impossible to get center of the parking spot manually. Looking out does not help because you can't see any ground within 2-3m unless you open the window fully and mirrors don't help because there are no straight lines in car side to help any alignment. And the reverse camera, huge barrel stretched to rectangle form.
I have understood that research about isolation has more than enough proof that loneliness is root cause for multiple issues. Including observable physical changes in the brain that probably affects behaviour.
But if you prefer to work in solitude (your boss just got the AI memo?) there should not be at least much ill effects.
Modern mass production stuff is not going to happen in a garage. Plus add logistics costs to each step and you have $150 product costing $150000 being produced with completely inferior production methods and you are lucky if the thing does not spontaneously collapse.
Bit like someone has skipped manufacturing history since first steps of Henry Ford.
You can calculate a budget for AI training with following formula: Qty of employees to be replaced * AVG yearly salary * 100 years (because calculations are so precise that this is fully valid way of doing things).
And don't hesitate to be really optimistic about getting as high numbers as possible so you won't be that much limited by the training cost.
Insufficient evidence, insufficient connections. Sometimes the line is just too blurry and these things might accidentally mix.
And now I started thinking about billionaires getting higher return to capital compared to averages. Bit like the playing field was tilted by design.
How convenient to pick aviation as reference.
Aviation industry has common goal of high security standards and extremely low accident rate. This increases viability of every aviation company.
What if they could have major vendor locks with monthly billing no matter if someone dares to fly or not and for those who must it does not matter how bad accidents will happen because migration to competitor would still be worse option financially?
Imagine if you had ability for emphaty and take 10% effective paycut yourself while cutting costs. Yeah you'd loose millions but you probably could afford it. Easily. And majority of workforce would appreciate the act. A lot.
But who cares about disgruntled employees who you can sack next time costs are being cut. Plus you get to keep every single million you think you absolutely deserved.
That sounds hard work, why don't we just skip about every step of that and trust that someone will figure out a way to fix the gigantic dumpster fire when the reality kicks in for the project team and/or the customer.
Yeah we have messed up all our previous projects but our luck will turn eventually.
"how many more tests before getting something reliable ?"
Something between 1 and n
Probability gets higher the closer infinity you get.
I am getting a feeling that their approach might not be able to achieve this. Too much stuff fixed already and less room for adjustments with each change (plus possibility of additional issues arising due to changes being introduced). It is easy to paint oneself in corner really fast. And full reboot of whole design would be required.
This kind of test prototypes fast -stuff might not be the solution companies actually need. It requires thorough understanding about the wicked problem being tackled.
Sometimes it would be really useful to spend extra month with simulation software trying to get as many viable options as ever possible just to have more prototype backlog just in case plus better understanding about the issues that need to be solved aka must win battles.
Compare this to the case where a certain billionaire said publicly that government is meddling way too much or something similar and believe it or not he disappeared completely for weeks and then announced that everything is fine and he will be stepping down.
People will definetly appreciate how management treats them as numbers in these metrics instead of actual people. Just a firm reminder about metrics getting bit worse when someone has big problems in their life will definetly help. A lot.
But you gotta do what you gotta do in order to make it easier for the certain people to fire for example 50 000 employees at once.
Just the kind of places where people will innovate and go for the extra mile on a weekly basis ;)
My car gives the most annoying beeps if car is running and you jump out and close the door behind you if you keep the key in your pocket. Well within the range where the fancy touch the sensor to unlock doors -feature works. I suppose there are different detection areas and door unlock and start engine use different circuits.
I will definetly test at some point the multiple ways this arrangement will also fail in practice.
Can't stop thinking about situation where someone realizes 5 minutes after the launch that he/she really should have done some background checks first.
Feel free to use this as a plot for 9 months long slow TV horror movie. Make sure nobody can leave as soon the film starts rolling.
Vibrations might be large risk and it is easy to simulate resonant frequencies nowadays and make sure that nothing starts resonating while full rpm.
Speed changes etc might be the trickier thing. Because you need to set the component frequencies somewhere and definetly not to full rpm frequencies. So there might be some edge cases that wreak havoc inside the drive.
1. Sack 90% of workforce
2. Next groundbreaking product magically appears
3. Earn gazillion dollars and no need to share it with greedy employees demanding getting paid monthly
Standard bean counter stuff.
I am starting to believe that lean etc was rebranding with the sole purpose of stripping long term commitment to employees and ability to rotate jobs and other nice stuff for employees from Toyota Production System.
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