New Cow Theory?
I have to wonder whether after thirty plus years this field doesn't hold the same attraction that it did for my generation in the 1970-90s.
At Uni In 1975 writing code for assignments I was submitting punched cards to a batch system and collecting line printer output the next day.
A few years later it was a time sharing system with teletype terminals and later visual display units.
All pretty laborious but still fascinating as everything was still new - Lisp, Simula-67 etc etc.
With the advent of affordable hardware and af "personal" computing coupled with the explosion of software for these systems including development tools a whole generation for the first time had the opportunity convert their creativity and imagination into software applications.
I suspect now the gloss has worn off and possibly less than 10% of the comparable contemporary cohort have any interest in these aspects of IT. I have a young relation who is just completing a computer science degree and to my surprise he hasn't done any programming apart from a minimal first year introduction. (0r any more theoretical aspects of computer science.) Unfortunately more manglement studies I suspect.
Fairly obvious what the old cow here would be but is the new cow generative AI? In my decline I don't know what enthuses twenty to thirty year olds other than they seem to face a much greater struggle to make their way in this world which could understandably dampen their enthusiasm for anything else.
I might guess that we had reached peak open source several years before COVID with that pandemic obscuring the fact.
This poses the question of how large will the open source community be in the future and the composition of that community? I imagine somewhat smaller and the majority employed by "for profit" concerns followed at a distance by a variety of "not for profit" entities with a very much smaller population of amateur * contributors. My feeling is this will ultimately be to the detriment to open source and to computing, in the widest sense, generally.
At least the problem and inherent dangers have been identified. The cloister bells are tolling.
* in the literal sense (L.< amare)