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Beijing signals it may let Micron out of the penalty box in the Middle Kingdom

martinusher Silver badge

I'd be careful with simulations like this (even it if was a real simulation) because of the "GIGO" problem.

A stunning case in point occurred with the abortive Ukraine offensive that was extensively war gamed by NATO simulators before the actual troop deployments. In theory this should have taken into account all sorts of scenarios, working out the optimum strategy to adopt to achieve the desired result with minimal cost. Unfortunately the program inputs were critically flawed -- the assumption was made that once western weapons were deployed the badly trained and motivated Russian troops would just run away. It turned out that the Russians were nothing of the sort so the entire operation turned into a rather nasty meat grinder. (In fact, its been reported that the AFU has ditched the entire NATO combined arms playbook and gone back to (effectively) trench warfare.)

So, without disclosing the meaning behind the scores and variables you run the risk of making useless simulations that are inherently biased towards whoever is paying for the work. In this case the real-world economic numbers don't tally with the simulation's results suggesting a flaw in the logic -- or delusional wishful thinking.

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