Re: Unexpected consequence ?
Will an unexpected consequence of Western policy be that China will develop chip manufacturing expertise that is on a par with that achieved by machines from ASML
That would take at least a decade, minimum. EUV is the result of 20 years of research, and there are hundreds of components in it that had to be invented from scratch to make it work. That's why even if China stole the blueprints for ASML's EUV scanner and had a working model to compare to, they would still require at least a decade to replicate it.
There are known ways to achieve what EUV is capable of that China has access to, like e-beam. The problem is that throughput with e-beam is a tiny tiny fraction of what is required for mass production, but for China's military needs that may not matter. But absent a massive breakthrough it wouldn't serve the commercial needs of a company like Huawei.