Reply to post: Re: Threshold

Kioxia warns of potential cost of US chip policy over China


Re: Threshold

So in the end it depends if the "West" will protect their own "support technologies" or buy the massively subsidized but good enough CCP ones.

As it happens, US sanctioning of Western exports is apparently politically easy compared sanctioning cheap imports from China. As was reported by El Reg recently US federal and state entities are still buying Huwei despite instructions not to do so.

Also, Japan and Germany, who WERE the last holdouts exporting more than importing to China, are both now net importers. As long as every major country is in the trade balance red zone with respect to China, China will have the resources to invest in new products and dump them at cut price.

The US has imposed 25% import taxes on a range of Chinese products, and combined with the China COVID slowdown, has increased demand for labor in the US and raised actual minimum wages far beyond $15 in every urban US area. Of course, made in USA costs more! Duh! Inflation. But instead of welcoming it, the Fed is now trying the choke the economy.

In short, there is no top down plan within the US about what a long term healthy non-China-dependent economy should look like. Exports are sanctioned because high tech exporters are a weak lobby compared to importers (think Amazon, Walmart), and because of the visible short term return of seeing China struggle with those sanctions.

Also, the West is not cohesive. Despite Germany now being a net China importer, Germany's Sholtz has declined Macron's suggestion to visit China together, let alone coordinate with the US. And within the US Musk has announced that Taiwan should become a special administrative region of China (nice Tesla factory and market you got there!).

On the other hand, China has the opposite problem - an over centralized power in Xi surrounded by weak "Yes" men - guaranteed to prevent bad news from rising up, and therefore adapting to reality. You can count on that arrogance being replicated all the way down the power pyramid, and interfering with decisions within the semiconductor industry.

It's like watching two awful football (interpret "football" as you wish) teams in a match - it's not inspiring and not very entertaining. You know that match might turn into a knock down brawl at any moment.

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