When you eliminated the impossible what remains...
The trouble with that argument is that it's possible to construct blacks holes (non-rotating, uncharged, no accretion disk) where you can pass "through" the event horizon and never know - even the tidal forces are too weak for you to realise you've crossed the point of no return.
So they have to postulate other, empirically-unfounded reasons why this couldn't happen. We've no clue whether he's right. I wouldn't say it was a bad bet. But then I wouldn't have said Johnson getting elected as PM for a second time, weeks after he left, was a bad bet either. Maybe we don't live in that universe. We need a working theory of quantum gravity to know.
Biting the hand that feeds IT
