Re: 200% trust in congress
'Proven' means different things to different people. I think Elon will put a few Starlinks on the first launch even though perigee will be too low for those satellites to complete one orbit. (embiggen)If(/embiggen) the first Starship completes a fractional orbit then Starship will be proven sufficiently for Starlink. It will take more than one successful Starship launch before NASA considers it 'proven' for satellites let alone crew and many landings before they consider it for landing crew on Earth. SpaceX have said that they will fly Falcon for as long as customers want it while putting a clause in the contract to allow customers to switch to Starship if they want.
Orion in a Starship is something I have only ever seen in speculation and never in an official NASA announcement. Shelby would explode with rage if someone from NASA whispered a joke about this in Alabama. NASA would not put crew inside an Orion inside a Starship because they require a launch abort system to be able to work without fairing separation (ask Sierra Nevada Corporation about Dream Chaser). If SLS does a spectacular RUD then there is a slight possibility for the following plan to be costed in secret by NASA: An empty Orion gets taken near the Moon by a Starship. Astronauts ride a Dragon to HLS Starship in LEO and that Starship takes them to the Moon then back to the Orion for return to Earth.
The reason for 4 to 12 tanker launches to refuel a Starship is that Starship performance changes every month. SpaceX put 12 in the HLS bid so NASA would not need to do much thinking before deciding that SpaceX had assigned easily sufficient launches for the complete mission.
Biting the hand that feeds IT
