Re: Another shoe of the US Clyddsdale falls.
"In five years, China will likely have EUV lithography or something better."
You weren't doing well before, but you totally lost me there. I know the level of tech and institutional knowledge required for EUV up close and China isn't even close to being 5 years away from being able to do EUV. They're still barely hanging on to a 5 to 10 year gap on DUV litho because they lack domestic production of the required high quality lens stacks for anything better, production of EUV multi-layer mirrors of the required spec is currently beyond their capabilities. No doubt if enough resources are poured in they can get close or competitive in DUV in relatively short time (probably about 5 years, but they currently aren't investing afaik) but no amount of money and resources is going to get them to the level of producing EUV optics in 5 years. And that is besides the motion control, ultra clean vacuum, production engineering, etc that goes into these systems.
I'm well aware the Chinese (PRC) as a people aren't stupid and they can do amazing things. But currently they don't have the knowledge and tech to rival the likes of ASML and TSMC at peer level.
Biting the hand that feeds IT
