Suppose China just Blows up TSMC and never tries to take Taiwan
Gina Raimondo has no background in trade, technology or economics. She is the former Gov of Rhode Island which holds the perminent bottom ranking for business in the USA.
So when did this sudden realization come into view that Taiwan holds the world hostage for narrow gated chips? During Trump's paranoid occupation or before then? What caused the sudden moment of realization that Taiwan held the world of narrow gated chips hostage?
But let's also remember that only 5% of the global market is narrow gated chips. This is why China is focused on 95% of the market and why they have now nearly achieved 80% self-sufficiency in 95% of the global chip market.
The fastest way for China to take Taiwan is simply to attack TSMC and throw sand and dirt in all the foreign chip lines or just blow up the ASML EUV lithography devices and walk away. Without TSMC Taiwan would have no more global friends other than China. If China only attacks TSMC and leaves Taiwan intact, it is not an invasion it is a mere act of destroying a business and they could do it with no loss of life.
Then look at all you are getting from just 52 billion dollars... Intel promises three fab plants, TSMC promises two plants and even Samsung promises a plant. Figure the plants are $20 billion each in the US which has OSHA, EPA, IRS, SEC, FTC, FDA, and Dept of Interior overseeing every step of the way assuring higher costs and lower efficiency. Yeah, this will work. I haven't even gotten into the US workforce, most employee theft, most disability, most violence in the workplace, much aimed at Asians, good luck with Texas and Arizona and Ohio, UNIONS, most absenteeism, and the king daddy of all the Most Litigious nation on earth... Those semiconductor toxic washes will be the next $2 Billion suit in the California Courts.
TSMC should simply move out of Taiwan before it gets blown up. A US General said if Taiwan is invaded by China, then Taiwan should blow up TSMC. Clearly, TSMC is at risk. And if Joe Biden's claims the US would go to war with China over Taiwan are true, then you know the first US Target will be TSMC. And when the TSMC plant is blowing up, then the US will leave Taiwan. After all, why lose another war to an Asian country. Blowhard is much more effective from a safe distance.
Perhaps the question that should be asked is why the US Semiconductor industry continues to decline 3% a year. Is this because there is no fab or because foreign nations don't want the risk of buying US-made semiconductors for fear of sanctions? Suppose you are a Chinese Cell phone maker and using Qualcomm chips. Then a blowhard president puts sanctions on those chips. Is anyone going to use US chips in Asia where all the smartphones are made or in Korea? Even Samsung started making their own chips to get away from Qualcomm dependence.
So who is going to buy US-made chips and is any fabless company going to go to INTEL for FAB and share their designs with INTEL? You can't be serious. What about Samsung's US FAB plant proposal. Same deal, nobody is going to share their designs with SAMSUNG.
So who is going to buy all this mega FAB output the US promises off 52 Billion in taxpayer money? Nobody. That's who.
OK then when are the US smartphone manufacturing lines going to appear in this panacea? How bout big screen TVs and modems, and computers etc. and What happens to the European in this mix? They subordinate their will to the USA and get nothing in return. TSMC and SAMSUNG and INTEL are not talking about Fab plants in Europe. So is Europe left out in the cold? Well yeah... And what about ASML... how long will they be a monopoly before the US considers landing a military force there... OH, they already have one in NATO... NATOIZATION... as intelligent as VIETNAMIZATION.
So how should the Chinese take out TSMC? They should make it look like the CIA did it. Leave some American trinkets on the ground. Set explosives that looked like Air conditioner compressors, cooling towers etc.
Face it American Xenophobes would love it. They won't have to buy products from Taiwan or feel they are being held hostage anymore. Once TSMC is gone, nobody will care if Taiwan even exists. TSMC is EVERYONE's problem... Eliminate it and the Global problem is solved.
To paraphrase Henry Kissinger... China is not going away... so stop using your provincial local politics to confront China. You are not doing the math. The FAB stooges are focused on just 5% of the semiconductor global market. China is altering that equation with 5g and 6g... They are looking to build supercomputer backbones into the network capacity so the smartphone can be a lot less smart and a lot cheaper if the network does the heavy lifting.
Once TSMC is gone, Taiwan will no longer be a Target of the globe.