Re: I disagree
Where I live just under a small mountain and not that far from some effing big ones, the weather can sometimes change dramatically in a very short time. Even then, local predictions are amazingly good, they map out big storms usually 2-3 days ahead, and are maybe 2-3 hours off the start/end times of the storms.
Of course as you say, they don't always get it right, but I would say more often than not they do by quite some margin (maybe 65-35). Considering the (apparent) volatility, that's a pretty high strike rate.
I think what really has greatly improved in the last few years is the resolution of the models. I remember seeing forecast maps covering whole countries with maybe 5 or 6 regions, going there's sunny, there's rainy etc with each region covering hundreds of kms. My weather app today can give me a pretty accurate individual forecast for every town in the region.
Biting the hand that feeds IT
