Reply to post: Re: I like 7Zip.

Re: I like 7Zip.

In brief, if the Russian armed forces were what most people (myself included!) thought they were and were supposed to be ie a well equipped, well-trained and well-lead modern army then I'm pretty sure that Ukraine would have fallen completely under Russian control inside a week or two.

Invading a smaller country that is at least at the same level technologically (but with lower numbers both for equipment and forces) needs a good strategy, and a decent assessment of what you as the invader are likely to encounter. Especially if that country has been very aware of your intentions, and preparing to counter it at all costs as defeat would mean just about total eradication of their culture and lifestyle. Having a 40 mile long column of vehicles driving towards Kyiv with little infantry support, expecting to be greeted as liberators with bread and flowers, is not a good strategy and points at a total lack of reality-based assessment.

But there is just so much evidence of the complete and utter incompetence of the current Russian military at all levels, and of corruption misappropriating funds that were supposed to maintain and update equipment mysteriously finding its way into individuals bank accounts, that no, there is no way Russia could win this war even if it could afford it for much longer, which I rather doubt.

There's also the Russian command structure (not limited to the army; it's everywhere): top-down, command-driven. Tactical problems and setbacks have to be reported to the commanders, who then have to think of a change, then give out a new set of commands which have to be carried out. Those commanders tend to be near the battlefield so they have a better view of the situation but are, as repeatedly shown, in a vulnerable position. In contrast, Western armies (and Ukraine has trained that way since 2014) tend to be mission-driven, leaving a lot of initiative with lower and non-commanding officers, with even the rank soldiers roughly knowing what to do if their squad leader is killed of incapacitated.

Ask yourself - why did the Russians employ Wagner Group?

Deniability. Oh, they have a Russian 'capo di capi', but that's just coincidence, no? Sure, they happen to turn up everywhere there's conflict, Syria, Libya, other parts of Africa, but that's just Assad and local warlords availing themselves of rent-a-guns. Nonono, it has nothing to do with a strategic or economic advantage for Russia, or rather, a couple of Russian oligargs. No, nothing at all, why do you think so? And now, as they happen to enjoy fighting there's a war on their doorstep now, so just a short commute. What's not to like?