Reply to post: I don't get the China invading Taiwan hype

Taiwan claims ‘breakthrough’ in EU semiconductor cooperation talks

DS999 Silver badge

I don't get the China invading Taiwan hype

It is certainly no more likely today than it was five years ago when no one was talking about it. Heck, I would argue that if anything it is LESS likely today because China has seen how willing the west is to gang up with sanctions even when it costs their own people, how willing the US is to supply weapons to allow a country being invaded to kill the invaders, how much difficulty Russia is having making any headway despite their massive military advantage, and how hard a free people are willing to fight to prevent an autocrat from dominating them.

And unlike Russia, China isn't going to tell their people there are Nazis in Taiwan and bomb their cities into rubble. They view Taiwan's populace as misguided brothers, not an enemy whose women and children deserve to be killed and piled up in mass graves.

Now if Putin had marched in and set up a puppet government with a minimum of bloodshed like he thought he would maybe that would give Xi false hope he could do the same in Taiwan and might have increased the chance of an invasion. What Xi has seen instead is every consequence has been negative for Putin - NATO is more solid than it has been in 50 years, it will expand even closer to Moscow as previously neutral countries feel the need to protect themselves, his oligarch's financial positions have been weakened, and his country's economic growth is permanently turning negative for as long as he remains in power. Xi does not want any of those things.

One thing China does much better than the west is think and plan long term. They truly believe their system of government is the best, and will end up beating the rest of the world economically, and then Taiwan would willingly reunite. They see no need to rush things, so long as Taiwan doesn't take any steps to further its independence.

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