Re: "I'm fairly confident"
Exactly.
My personal feeling is that somewhere upwards of 90% of Russia's nuclear arsenal will not work in some form. That may vary from nothing happening when the button is pressed, to it blowing up in the silo, breaking up enroute, not hitting the target, the warhead not exploding or only getting a primary fission explosion of a few kilotons without the secondary fusion explosion which takes the warhead to hundreds of kilotons or even megatons.
However even if one assumes that 99% of Russia's ~6000 warheads don't work (which would appear to be exceptionally and foolishly optimistic) that still leaves a minimum of ~61 warheads that would go off.
Personally, i'd prefer not to find out.
Biting the hand that feeds IT
