60% chance of failure
(to pluck an arbitary number out of thin air)
Here's how I see it:
- Musk does everything he has said, the platform becomes an unmanageble mess of extreme "free" speech which right-minded people leave in their droves and is banned outright by jurisdictions (Europe for e.g.) which have no qualms about regulating this sort of thing. As a result, it withers and dies - 30%
- Musk tries to do everything he has said, but comes up against regulatory hurdle after regulatory hurdle, can't reduce costs by removing the oversight, can't monetise it reliably, loses interest and allows it gradually to wither and die - 30%
- Musk realises that if this isn't to be the biggest waste of money anyone has ever measured (not that he couldn't afford it), he needs to work within proper frameworks, tidies things up a bit (never been a Twitter user, but I like the cooling-down period idea as much as I don't like retrospective editing (actually, the sort allowed by El Reg seems to work)) but otherwise the platform carries on pretty much as it is now, Musk loses the urge to micromange everything but becomes a kind of benign dictator, until the day he decides to cash in - 40%
Let's face it, far from its early days, Twitter is basically just a medium to allow corporations and celebrities to put short messages in your face. Twitter killed RSS? Perhaps if Twitter does die, some kind of modernised RSS will take its place (are there such things already out there?)
M.