Reply to post: Re: Obviously.

Amazon books rocket flights for its Kuiper broadband internet satellites

Flocke Kroes Silver badge

Re: Obviously.

I was wondering why Jeff would risk litigation from Amazon shareholders for buying from Jeff's privately owned Blue Origin when cheaper rides are available from SpaceX. There could actually be two valid defences: Blue might have bid lower and OneWeb might have bought all the remaining launches from SpaceX.

Falcon 9 is limited by how quickly SpaceX can build second stages, the time taken for the drone ships to bring the first stages back, the number of launches the FAA has permitted from each launch site and the amount of time SLS wet dress rehearsals block other launches. OneWeb launches are limited by the volume of the F9 fairing, not mass. The payload may be light enough to return the first stage straight back to the launch site without needing a cruise on a drone ship. The stage 1 manufacturing rate probably matches the total number of launches SpaceX is licensed to carry out from each launch site. That is unlikely to grow because launches are already a problem that aviators have to route around and other launch provides need the same sky too.

Kuiper's FCC license depends on getting half the satellites in place by mid-2026 and the rest by mid-2029. Any delay in the up-coming new rockets puts Kuiper at risk. A few years from now, Amazon may have to choose between begging the FCC for an extension or buying from the only provider with the required capacity: SpaceX Starship.

(Arianespace decided not to develop a re-usable rocket because there would not be enough launches to keep the existing work-force employed. This may turn out to be a false assumption.)

(Just found out you can buy a Falcon 9 from Amazon ;-)

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