Reply to post: Re: 'enemies of Russia'

Russia's invasion of Ukraine tears open political rift between cybercriminals

Anonymous Coward
Anonymous Coward

Re: 'enemies of Russia'

Adding to your final point, Putin does not want a competing player in the European market. Adding to reserves is a nice bonus for Putin, but removing something that can and will undercut the Gazprom and Rosneft monopolies is the real objective - especially as something like 60-70% of Russian income is tied up in that. Russia's other export industries certainly aren't expanding; losing out to competition. Chinese-funded mining activity in Africa is undercutting Russian mining. Western space commercialisation is out-doing Proton and Soyuz. Russian arms are, shall we say, not looking too effective a purchase at the moment either. The "Putin bad" argument is obviously a hopeless oversimplification. His actions however abhorrent, were in the cold, hard analysis absolutely predictable. Putin has bet that the world can't afford to not rely on him and his monopolies. We're not there yet, but the collapse of economies is an expensive price to run sanctions. For time being there seems to be public backing to take the consequences of telling the monopoly to get lost. Ask again in 3 months time when bills have doubled whether sanctions are still going to be a popular policy. (IMO some current Western Govt's risk collapse if prices and inflation explode).

If someone really wanted less NATO; a better line of approach would have been building on the work of the START treaties; joint demilitarisation etc. It's abundantly clear that was never the objective no matter what state PR pushes.

Some Gulf States (even notionally friendly ones) reaction to the situation has been very muted - they have as much interest in minimising competition as Russia does for oil.

There are still diplomatic tools that can be used to pressure Russia further. Our PM, whatever you think of him - has been out in Qatar for obvious reasons.

While in the short term it is a pain in the ass, this will largely galvanise the Western governments stated objectives to cut down on oil dependencies - and no matter how difficult it is to do - is absolutely the right thing to do. Ironically, this will serve to accelerate the reduction of dependency on Russian oil. It just can't be done overnight, that is all.

One thing I've not seen discussed, and would be a viable disruptor: Belarus. There's significant opposition to Lukashenko in Belarus that could be fermented into open rebellion. Particularly while the Belarussian army is off elsewhere...

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