Re: Shock
When I renewed, I received a Temporary Permit within a week, which indicated that they were not going to get it renewed before expiring.
Home Office Guidance used to state that renewals should not be accepted more than two months prior to expiry (a clear indication that renewals should be turned around in under 8 weeks). That line has been quietly excised from more recent versions, presumably knowing that Police Chiefs have skeleton-staffed their Firearms Licensing Offices under austerity (see: Plymouth shootings).
In the end my renewal took in excess of 6 months. Fortunately I am only a target shooter. Were I a vocational shooter requiring the guns for work or pest control, that would be a significant problem. Likewise for our Olympic teams who need a valid Certificate to travel.