> We're all now rebuilding our Cold War state institutions (having had this shock) and I bet they'll be turned on China next. For Russia and China, this has been a policy disaster.
It certainly seems to be not going too well for Russia.
One thing which doesn't seem to get mentioned too much is that there's a number of financial, economic and political implications if Russia is successfully able to take over Ukraine. E.g. 80% of russian gas exports go through Ukraine (which was meant to be negated by Nord Stream 2), and Russia and Ukraine produce almost a third of the world's total wheat production.
Put simply, taking ownership of those gas pipes and wheat fields would give Russia a hell of a lot more revenue and a lot more political clout.
Meanwhile, China is stuck in a sanctions war with the USA, and is always looking for ways to legitimise it's claims over Taiwan, so was quite happy to side with Russia.
However, they've now seen what happens when a large but relatively inexperienced and underequipped conscript army attempts to invade a country with a modern military which has had time to prepare.
And how the West has reacted far more strongly to this invasion than most people would have predicted, both in terms of sanctions and by providing the Ukraine with lots of weapons and other forms of indirect support.
And how Putin has decided to up the ante by threatening to use nukes.
And all of the global economic impacts that this war is having, at a time when we're still dealing with the shocks caused by Coronavirus. Which in turn could devastate their export industries.
Overall, I don't think it's been a full blown policy disaster for China, but I do suspect that they're quietly shifting from tacit approval of Russia's actions to a more neutral stance.
And the more that Putin waves his magic nuke card, the more they'll sidestep away from him...
Biting the hand that feeds IT
