Unlikely
China has a _very_ long history (3000+ years) of rogue provinces splitting away and then eventually being assimilated back into the whole
In virtually every case if there's been a war it was started by the secessionist group. Most times the unification was achieved through dynastic alliances (marriages)
The USA thinks that China will invade Taiwan when in reality they're content to have an annual ritual shaking of fists over the Formosa Strait. Chinese leadership tends to think in terms of multiple DECADES, not single election cycles
Bear in mind that if China did militarily invade, the estimates are a couple of million dead on each side. The PRC leadership are not stupid and they know they wouldn't survive that kind of loss, regardless of the percentage in population terms. It's impossible to censor those kinds of numbers and despite the propaganda the country simply isn't that militaristic (They'd much rather trade than fight. It's the USA which is trying to kick things off and that's mostly economic fear of China, not military)
Biting the hand that feeds IT
